Orioles at least scouting Darvish

[Stotle]

Yeah, we'll have to disagree. Spotting of secondary pitches is of far less concern than than FB command and sequencing is of even less concern as I generally don't buy into the concept of differences in catcher's pitch calling skills.

Um, okay. But if you think the primary factor in deciding ML success between NPB and MLB is fastball command then I think you underestimate what actually goes into prepping, and succeeding, as a ML starter.

[Stotle]

Fair to note, but it's worth it to mention that this "concern" could be levied against any top notch Japanese pitcher for eternity, as long as their game is different than ours.

It's a concern for any player making the jump to MLB. The big difference is that most players don't require a mid- to upper-ten figure investment to go along with their arrival to your ML team.

[DrungoHazewood]

Oh ok...Wow, you really have to love those stats:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=darvis001yu-

He's been better this year. 18-6, 1.44, 232 innings, 276 Ks, 36 walks. Flat-out ridiculous. Matsuzaka never had a year remotely comparable. Kind of like Walter Johnson's 1908 season, just with far better K/BB numbers in a league with much higher offense. Actually, it reminds me a bit of Dwight Gooden's year in the Carolina League.

Here are some snapshot, one-year park factors for Japan for last year. They may not be much better than no data, since one-year park factors fluctuate so much, but taken with a grain of salt the Sapporo Dome looks like a pitchers park. But when you're throwing to a 1.44 does it really matter that much if you play in something of a pitcher's park? It's a one-fourty-four ERA for a starter who completes like half his starts.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Um, okay. But if you think the primary factor in deciding ML success between NPB and MLB is fastball command then I think you underestimate what actually goes into prepping, and succeeding, as a ML starter.

I think the deciding factor in almost every ML pitcher is FB command. We could debate different levels of command needed depending on that pitchers overall "stuff" etc., but yeah, I think that's the primary factor for a ML pitcher's success. I'm not saying the secondary pitches aren't important. They obviosuly are and they are absoloutely needed to complement the FB. You establish the FB and get ahead, you set up your secondary stuff. You can be successful with even mediocre secondary stuff and good FB command (Guthrie probably being a good example of that), but it's pretty hard to do it the other way. If you establish and get ahead with the FB, you don't need to worry as much about locating your secondary stuff through a narrower window. You can focus on the quality of the pitch and still get guys out without great location, as well as getting guys to swing at more balls out of the strike zone. To me, that seams elementary to pitching.

[El Gordo]

He's been better this year. 18-6, 1.44, 232 innings, 276 Ks, 36 walks. Flat-out ridiculous. Matsuzaka never had a year remotely comparable. Kind of like Walter Johnson's 1908 season, just with far better K/BB numbers in a league with much higher offense. Actually, it reminds me a bit of Dwight Gooden's year in the Carolina League.

Here are some snapshot, one-year park factors for Japan for last year. They may not be much better than no data, since one-year park factors fluctuate so much, but taken with a grain of salt the Sapporo Dome looks like a pitchers park. But when you're throwing to a 1.44 does it really matter that much if you play in something of a pitcher's park? It's a one-fourty-four ERA for a starter who completes like half his starts.

Would you be willing to risk a 50M+posting fee on him? I think that's what you stand to lose worst case. I'd be surprised if he didn't poove worth whatever his contract comes to.

[Stotle]

I think the deciding factor in almost every ML pitcher is FB command. We could debate different levels of command needed depending on that pitchers overall "stuff" etc., but yeah I think that's the primary factor for a ML pitcher's success. I'm not saying the secondary pitches aren't important. They obviosuly are and they are absouloutely needed to complement the FB. You establish the FB and get ahead, you set up your secondary stuff. You can be successful with even mediocre secondary stuff and good FB command (Guthrie probably being a good example of that), but it's pretty hard to do it the other way. If you establish and get ahead with the FB, you don't need to worry as much about locating your secondary stuff through a narrower window. You can focus on the quality of the pitch and still get guys out without great location, as well as getting guys to swing at more balls out of the strike zone. To me, that seams elementary to pitching.

I think there's truth in what you're saying. It's just an oversimplification, in my opinion, and not necessarily analysis particularly relevant as far as Darvish's transition is concerned. Maybe I'm off, but if I were tasked with writing him up I wouldn't be worried about whether or not he can be successful. His stuff can obviously play. I'm worried about whether he is worth a mid-ten figure investment just to talk to him and another mid-ten figure figure to pay him over the next five years. That means, is he a front-end arm or is he a fringe to solid #3? When I'm making that call I'm looking at a ton of particulars, and fastball command, while important, is likely pretty darn far down the list. If he can't command a fastball I wouldn't want him on my pitching staff, period, let alone want to pay upwards of $100 MM dollars all in for him.

[DrungoHazewood]

Would you be willing to risk a 50M+posting fee on him? I think that's what you stand to lose worst case. I'd be surprised if he didn't poove worth whatever his contract comes to.

If the Orioles really are going Trea-in, Darvish is the one player out there who could plausibly play the Randy Johnson role in the attempt to recreate the 1999 Diamondbacks.

Darvish would be fun, he might be controversial, he might be a Hall of Famer or a disaster, would certainly cause more eyes to look in the direction of Baltimore. But without a lot of other help, he makes the O's (best case, speaking roughly) a .500 team. I'd love to see him in an O's uniform. It's not going to happen, they'll probably spend $45M on Cuddyer or some innings eater or something instead.

If I seem non-committal, I am. I'd love to have Darvish. I'd love to take that chance. But I fear it won't be nearly enough, they won't fix the organization, they won't have a $125M payroll, and he'll end up getting traded or hurt and the whole thing will seem disappointing in retrospect.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think there's truth in what you're saying. It's just an oversimplification, in my opinion, and not necessarily analysis particularly relevant as far as Darvish's transition is concerned. Maybe I'm off, but if I were tasked with writing him up I wouldn't be worried about whether or not he can be successful. His stuff can obviously play. I'm worried about whether he is worth a mid-ten figure investment just to talk to him and another mid-ten figure figure to pay him over the next five years. That means, is he a front-end arm or is he a fringe to solid #3? When I'm making that call I'm looking at a ton of particulars, and fastball command, while important, is likely pretty darn far down the list. If he can't command a fastball I wouldn't want him on my pitching staff, period, let alone want to pay upwards of $100 MM dollars all in for him.

I think it may be relevant to Darvish for the following reasons:

1. Dice K's issue being unable to locate his FB and becoming more an more ineffective as hitters began to lay off his offspeed stuff (I know Darvish probably has better command than Dice K).

2. Reports provided here that Darvish relies less on his FB and more on his offspeed stuff. They didn't quantify that, but my assumption is his CB/FB mix may certainly be higher than a typical ML pitcher.

3. Even if it isn't higner, he appears to be more heavily reliant on his offspeed pitches for outs and he's likley getting many more CB's for strikes or swings than he would get here.

4. Obvious issues with the strike zone differences (FB's are called for strike more often than CB's etc)

I agree with you about the degree of unpredictability with assessing value here and if the hype gets out of hand, its probably time to move on.

Personally, I wouldn't worry at all about his offspeed stuff. I can tell from the film it's outstanding. You're the scout, but if it were me, I'd do something as simple as have him throw 3-4 sets of 10 4 seam FB's at the knees on the outside corner and see what the pattern looks like.

[The Rick]

Pleasantly surprised to hear Motorhead in the last video. I love the Japanese.

Hahaha... so true. Good stuff!

[andrewrickli]

My initial thought was that the Orioles shouldn't risk signing another Japanese All Star Pitcher, after what happened to Dice-K, Nomo, ect. But the more I look at this guy...the more I like him. Very young, and filthy stuff. A 97 mph splitter, with precise command? VERY rare...

[Nigel Tufnel]

From Roch:

In case you missed this gem last night from mlbtraderumors.com:

With his team's spot in the playoffs already locked up, Yu Darvish will skip his start on October 18th, according to the Kyodo News Agency. Orioles player development director John Stockstill traveled to Japan to watch Darvish pitch in this game.

Sigh.

I guess it's true. Pitchers really don't want to come here.

Darvish had two ideas: Skip the start or wear a disguise.

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2011/10/this-and-that-19.html

[Lucky Jim]

If the Orioles really are going Trea-in, Darvish is the one player out there who could plausibly play the Randy Johnson role in the attempt to recreate the 1999 Diamondbacks.

Darvish would be fun, he might be controversial, he might be a Hall of Famer or a disaster, would certainly cause more eyes to look in the direction of Baltimore. But without a lot of other help, he makes the O's (best case, speaking roughly) a .500 team. I'd love to see him in an O's uniform. It's not going to happen, they'll probably spend $45M on Cuddyer or some innings eater or something instead.

If I seem non-committal, I am. I'd love to have Darvish. I'd love to take that chance. But I fear it won't be nearly enough, they won't fix the organization, they won't have a $125M payroll, and he'll end up getting traded or hurt and the whole thing will seem disappointing in retrospect.

While repeatedly and professedly skeptical of signing Nippon League pitchers to MLB-TOR money, I would sign Darvish, and spend over a hundred million dollars to do so, 10x out of 10 as against signing Cuddyer.

[LookinUp]

If I seem non-committal, I am. I'd love to have Darvish. I'd love to take that chance. But I fear it won't be nearly enough, they won't fix the organization, they won't have a $125M payroll, and he'll end up getting traded or hurt and the whole thing will seem disappointing in retrospect.

Darvish...Bundy...Britton...Matusz...Bundy...Arrieta

To the full quote above, my response is...so what? Honestly, they'll either fix this organization or they won't. In case a, we'd at least have Darvish to root for. We'd have the potential for two true TOR starters (Bundy), with Britton, the other Bundy, Matusz and others. We'd have the potential to increase our starters' innings, thus saving our bullpen. Perhaps most importantly, with one big signing, this organization would potentially already have - in-house - a future stud pitching rotation. There would be no guarantees, of course, but we could potentially sign Darvish and do nothing else with respect to adding talent and still have a rotation capable of leading a competitor.

If the O's are going to blow their load on a player, it should be Darvish, IMO.

[Sports Guy]

From Roch:

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2011/10/this-and-that-19.html

If the Orioles have been scouting him since 2008, missing one start won't matter.

[blid]

If the O's are going to blow their load on a player, it should be Darvish, IMO.

I've been coming around to this thinking... His numbers in Japan are just obscene. He could be the Ichiro of pitching...