Orioles at least scouting Darvish

[Stotle]

Former Kansas City Royals manager Trey Hillman, who managed Darvish and the Nippon Ham Fighters before coming to the Royals added:“In my opinion, he’s one of the best in the world at 21. . .He’s got an array of every pitch you’d want to see with the exception of a knuckleball. He throws a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, movement that is natural and really unfair. He has velocity, 92-95, to go with it. He’s a tremendous competitor, a great worker, a great teammate, handles fame very well.”

Jim Callis of Baseball America says that had Darvish been a prospect in the MLB prior to the 2008 season, he would have ranked Darvish as the #3 prospect, behind Jay Bruce and Evan Longoria, but ahead of Joba Chamberlain and Clay Buchholz.Baseball America reports Darvish throws a fastball that sits in the low 90’s but can reach 95-96 mph. He also throws a curveball, slider, splitter and changeup.

One international scout says:“He has plus stuff, and plus command and control to go with plus makeup. If I had a big game, I would be comfortable with him on the mound. He’s a No. 1 starter for me. Absolutely filthy last year, and he played most of the year at 20. We’ll see what happens as the innings pile on his arm, but he would be 1-1 in the draft. . .We’re not talking a ‘blow them away with a fastball and knee-wobbling stuff’ kind of guy. We’re talking a kid with a projectable body who knows how to pitch and is still developing physically—and is really good right now. He still might end up with jaw-dropping stuff. He’s still very young.”

“Right now,” Valentine says, “his stuff is probably sharper than Daisuke’s.”The praise only begins there. Terrmel Sledge, the former Padres outfielder who joined the Fighters this offseason, calls Darvish “one of the five best I’ve ever seen.”

http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/summer...jim&id=3544715

"He's a great pitcher," Davey Johnson said. "He threw the ball good and hit his spots. It was like throwing on the side for him, so he'll probably be ready to pitch Friday or Saturday."

This is high praise, of course. That said, we now have a few years of pro/int'l performance to measure. So some of the projection from his early twenties is not necessarily relevant any longer.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Kevin Greg simply cannot command the ball. I agree Darvish doesn't "nibble". He simply takes advantage of the strikezone given to him (just like Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux did). That said, there is obviously a question as to how well he'll adapt to a smaller strike zone. He'll likely need to trim down his arsenal some. It will be important to have a fair amount of data on him, including how he tends to react to starts without his best stuff. Also, he gets cushy treatment from NPB umpires, so his performance on the international stage should be thoroughly discussed/reviewed as well.

I'm guessing the pitchers get more calls/swings on the offspeed stuff there then they would here. That seamed to be some of the issue with DiceK as batters started laying off some of his offspeed stuff and he had to go more to his FB and his FB command wasn't exactly very good. I got the impression from reading one of the reports that Darvish wasn't heavily reliant on his FB over there. Something he'll need to do more in the ML, and of course the different strike zone and command will come more into play. This is not to say he can't adjust, as it sounds like he has an excellent 4 seam and 2 seamer, but we really don't have a great idea how good his FB command is and how it will translate to the ML imo.

[RVAbird]

Here's a couple of interesting MFY related links on Darvish, Darvish vs Dice-K, and Darvish vs Wilson. Plus some video. One guy crunches some numbers and says the if Darvish' numbers eroded as much as Dice-K's from NPB to MLB he would be on average:

195 IP 165 H 74R 72 ER 12 HR 104 BB 177 K's 6 WP 0 BK 3.40 RA 3.31 ERA 3.78 FIP

http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/2011/10/which-free-agent-starter-should-the-yankees-pursue-part-ii-yu-darvish-edition-35521

http://www.rlyhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjfZB_ANFP4w.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/should_the_yankees_make_a_play_for_yu_darvish

Darvish 2 seamer :

Darvish forkball:

Darvish a whole bunch of K's: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIUeoBrqjHk

Pleasantly surprised to hear Motorhead in the last video. I love the Japanese.

[Stotle]

Fair enough. I think his production, in a league considered above AAA, is so profound that he has to be considered an extremely elite talent. I think is fair to have consideration in his change of use, leaving mostly dome stadiums, increased travel, adjusting to a stronger league... but I would still be very surprised if he was not among the best if he came here.

2011 (Age 24): 17-6, 1.49 era, ip?, 37 bb's, 261 k's

2010(Age 23): 12-8, 1.78 era, 202 ip, 158 hits, 47 bb's, 222 k's

2009 (Age 22): 15-5, 1.73 era, 182 ip, 118 hits, 45 bb's, 167 k's

2008 (Age 21): 16-4, 1.88 era, 200.2 ip, 136 hits, 44 bb's, 208 k's

2007 (Age 20): 15-5, 1.82 era, 207.2 ip, 123 hits, 49 bb's, 210 k's

2006 (Age 19): 12-5, 2.89 era, 149.2 ip, 115 k's

I think he'd certainly be considered among the best 1st-year ML players. But I'm not sure I'd take Darvish over someone like Matt Moore. I think the anti-NPB crowd goes overboard with "bust potential" of posted players. But at the same time, we're conservative when trying to figure out how college/HS arms will adjust to a more rigorous schedule against tougher competition. And Darvish will be doing that at age 25, as opposed to learning and adjusting earlier on.

I think he can be a front-end guy, and is a pretty safe bet to be a #3. But I don't know that I'd be confident stating he'll be one of the best in the Majors. He might, but I think there are a fair number of adjustments he'll have to make, and I don't know him or his game well enough to have a strong opinion that he'll make those adjustments seamlessly.

[Stotle]

I'm guessing the pitchers get more calls/swings on the offspeed stuff there then they would here. That seamed to be some of the issue with DiceK as batters started laying off some of his offspeed stuff and he had to go more to his FB and his FB command wasn't exactly very good. I got the impression from reading one of the reports that Darvish wasn't heavily reliant on his FB over there. Something he'll need to do more in the ML, and of course the different strike zone and command will come more into play. This is not to say he can't adjust, as it sounds like he has an excellent 4 seam and 2 seamer, but we really don't have a great idea how good his FB command is and how it will translate to the ML imo.

I think there is something even more basic at play -- he gets borderline calls because he is Yu Darvish. He'll have to establish himself and his reputation as a command guy before MLB umpires will give him that courtesy, and that means establishing himself with a smaller strikezone, in general, against more advanced bats. He absolutely has the raw stuff to succeed. I think the question is more about whether he can make those necessary adjustments to implement his repertoire in a slightly different manner than to what he is currently accustomed.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think there is something even more basic at play -- he gets borderline calls because he is Yu Darvish. He'll have to establish himself and his reputation as a command guy before MLB umpires will give him that courtesy, and that means establishing himself with a smaller strikezone, in general, against more advanced bats. He absolutely has the raw stuff to succeed. I think the question is more about whether he can make those necessary adjustments to implement his repertoire in a slightly different manner than to what he is currently accustomed.

Fair enough, but even that issue boils down to FB command imo.

[Stotle]

Fair enough, but even that issue boils down to FB command imo.

I'm not sure how that could possibly be the case, but to each his own.

FB command isn't going to matter if he isn't spotting his other pitches or sequencing in a manner that allows his pitches to play best through a smaller pane.

[JTrea81]

Looks like Stockstill wasted his trip:

•With his team's spot in the playoffs already locked up, Yu Darvish will skip his start on October 18th, according to the Kyodo News Agency (Japanese link). Orioles player development director John Stockstill traveled to Japan to watch Darvish pitch in this game. (Translation provided by Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker)

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/quick-hits-yankees-.html

[EagleOriole]

Looks like Stockstill wasted his trip:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/quick-hits-yankees-.html

I'm sure if it is that important his trip will be extended. Besides, it's not like you can't find video of him and that the results of that one start was the end all ...

[El Gordo]

I'm sure if it is that important his trip will be extended. Besides, it's not like you can't find video of him and that the results of that one start was the end all ...

It's just possible he was lookinhg at other Japanese talent as well.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'm not sure how that could possibly be the case, but to each his own.

FB command isn't going to matter if he isn't spotting his other pitches or sequencing in a manner that allows his pitches to play best through a smaller pane.

Yeah, we'll have to disagree. Spotting of secondary pitches is of far less concern than than FB command and sequencing is of even less concern as I generally don't buy into the concept of differences in catcher's pitch calling skills.

[LookinUp]

I think there is something even more basic at play -- he gets borderline calls because he is Yu Darvish. He'll have to establish himself and his reputation as a command guy before MLB umpires will give him that courtesy, and that means establishing himself with a smaller strikezone, in general, against more advanced bats. He absolutely has the raw stuff to succeed. I think the question is more about whether he can make those necessary adjustments to implement his repertoire in a slightly different manner than to what he is currently accustomed.

Fair to note, but it's worth it to mention that this "concern" could be levied against any top notch Japanese pitcher for eternity, as long as their game is different than ours.

[El Gordo]

Fair to note, but it's worth it to mention that this "concern" could be levied against any top notch Japanese pitcher for eternity, as long as their game is different than ours.

Why wouldn't this be the same for any highly touted AAA SP? The game is a lot different for them at the ML level, as well, and the umpires will be just as unforgiving, I would think. The principle issue for NPB SP's IMO, is still keeping the pitch count down. But since Darvish K's more than Dice-k and walks far fewer I don't think that will be as severe a problem for him.

[SteveA]

Looks like Stockstill wasted his trip:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/quick-hits-yankees-.html

And Angelos has learned another lesson: he will never authorize overseas travel for any of his scouts again.

:-(

[CA-ORIOLE]

And Angelos has learned another lesson: he will never authorize overseas travel for any of his scouts again.

:-(

Hopefully, he got some nice souveniers.