What if Duquette's plan for 2012....works?

[wildcard]

To my point. I did the math. For last year for the 14 teams in the AL only 36 pitchers pitched 170 inning. Only 7 of those 36 had ERAs at 4.60 over better.

So for the most part a guy with a 4.60 ERA is not going to get to pitch 170 innings. The manager will give the innings to someone else.

[Frobby]

To my point. I did the math. For last year for the 14 teams in the AL only 36 pitchers pitched 170 inning. Only 7 of those 36 had ERAs at 4.60 over better.

So for the most part a guy with a 4.60 ERA is not going to get to pitch 170 innings. The manager will give the innings to someone else.

Only if they have pitchers who they think may be better. Look how many innings we gave Guthrie in 2009, or Millwood and Bergesen in 2010. Or Ponson. Or Lopez 2005-06. Or DCab. Have you been paying attention to what this team does?

As I said, there are only 48 pitchers who three 100 innings who had an ERA below 4.60. These teams aren't preventing the pitchers with a 4.60 ERA from throwing 170 innings because they have somebody better. But if they have a solid 1-3 or 1-4, they can try different guys in the last spot. We are likely to be in a different position because we probably don't have 3-4 guys who will beat 4.60 at the front, or at least, we have nobody with a track record of doing it. Of course, I'd be delighted if we can find 4-5 guys better than that. But I'm not betting on it, considering that last year we had one guy better than 4.60, and he's gone.

[crawjo]

I'm actually more interested in the Orioles this year than I was last year. This year we've got serious competition up and down the roster, and a huge number of unknown quantities. I think it could go in a lot of different directions and I'm curious to see how it turns out.

[wildcard]

Only if they have pitchers who they think may be better. Look how many innings we gave Guthrie in 2009, or Millwood and Bergesen in 2010. Or Ponson. Or Lopez 2005-06. Or DCab. Have you been paying attention to what this team does?

As I said, there are only 48 pitchers who three 100 innings who had an ERA below 4.60. These teams aren't preventing the pitchers with a 4.60 ERA from throwing 170 innings because they have somebody better. But if they have a solid 1-3 or 1-4, they can try different guys in the last spot. We are likely to be in a different position because we probably don't have 3-4 guys who will beat 4.60 at the front, or at least, we have nobody with a track record of doing it. Of course, I'd be delighted if we can find 4-5 guys better than that. But I'm not betting on it, considering that last year we had one guy better than 4.60, and he's gone.

However this year the O's have 10 possible starters. I am not said that any of them can't put up a 4.60 ERA or worst. I am just saying that with that many choices, if a starter is pitching that poorly the manager will go to someone else to pitch the innings instead of giving 170 to any guy pitching at 4.60 ERA or greater.

Its not like years past when there was no alternative. Buck now has other pitchers to go to.

[TakebackOPACY]

However this year the O's have 10 possible starters. I am not said that any of them can't put up a 4.60 ERA or worst. I am just saying that with that many choices, if a starter is pitching that poorly the manager will go to someone else to pitch the innings instead of giving 170 to any guy pitching at 4.60 ERA or greater.

Its not like years past when there was no alternative. Buck now has other pitchers to go to.

The O's will be pleased in the short term with any starter who is around 4.60-ish. I believe none of the ten or so starting options did that in the MLB over any significant length of time last year. But even if they leave that player in the rotation, he might not get to 170 innings.

170 innings is 30 starts at 5 2/3 innings per start. There's a huge gap between making 28-31 starts and getting pulled from the rotation after 5 starts.

[Frobby]

I think Antonelli has a better chance of hitting for a .350 OBP than Davis has of hitting for a 800 OPS.

Bump....I didn't realize you meant that Antonelli would be hitting for a .350 OPS at Norfolk.

[wildcard]

Bump....I didn't realize you meant that Antonelli would be hitting for a .350 OPS at Norfolk.

The year is not over. Hardy is injury prone. Flaherty seem to be able to hit but I wonder how instead he is with the glove. Will Andino break a 700 OPS this year? We probably will see Antonelli before it all over.

After I saw how much Buck liked Flaherty I also said the Flaherty may be this year Andino a far as being Buck's project.

[Objectivity]

The team's first losing season in this streak was 1998, the year the team changed to the ornithological correct bird on its caps. This is our first season to not have that logo on the primary cap since then.

Good a reason as any to have a winning season this year. It's certainly not because we're fielding a team that's meant to be competitive.

[WV O's]

The only way this team finishes above 500 if the players that were here before DD arrived really had good seasons.

I don't even know what DD's plan is right now based on player acquisitions for this year, so I can't even answer this question.

If this team wins this year it means we probably should not have gotten rid of McPhail.

I don't agree with this line of thinking. The culture around the club has taken a very Buck/DD slant since AM left.

1) more of a focus on bringing in people who can throw strikes.

2) more of a focus on OBP.

3) More of a focus on mechanics (peterson) and holding runners.

4) Competition, competition, competition.

5) Honesty about what they are willing to spend, and where they will spend it. ie. not big FA, scouting, bargains, international, fitness.

6) more of an effort to bring in former Orioles to help out the team (Brady, Palmer).

it just "feels" different. I realize that AM held some of these same beliefs, and acquired a lot of the players/coaches currently on the roster, but DD has taken it to another level.

I have to believe that these moves, while not always sexy, send a message throughout the whole organization about a commitment to changing the atmosphere...and baseball is 80% mental, right?

[Satyr3206]

Apparently some people are able to discern at least the outlines of a plan from Duquette's actions. I think the problem is that much of his plan is behind the scenes. He sees the major problem with the team as organizational and that once these issues are addressed, the ML roster issues will be resolved, as well. Duquette's first draft should be interesting.

Ding, ding, ding, we have a winner.

[Satyr3206]

Jones should definitely be dealt now. Hardy, Johnson and Reynolds are all possibilities between now and July 31. If you ar elucky and you get good years from hammel, gregg and/or Lindstrom, you move them too.

You can get rid of a lot of players and quickly turn things around while also doing what needs to be done long term,. ie what DD is focusing on.

But if you have no foundation for talent and you severly lack depth, it pushes you back even further.

Would you have traded Babe Ruth in order to "get younger"? Your philosophy on constant trading continues to amaze me, and not in a good way.

[WEAVERMAN]

I see a plan:

- If free agents aren't willing to sign here, then go abroad and find talent.

- Pitching, pitching, pitching. The more pitching depth, the better.

- Better teams through better scouting and drafting.

I think it's a fine strategy for the situation that this team is in. We have to build the team organically and gain some level of success in order to allow us to take the next steps.

Well said, Sammy. DD has a plan to pull the Orioles out of the depths of despair and rebuilding the organization with better scouting, drafting and development is the key.

[section18]

I've mentioned a few times on here since the first of the year that I think the Brady and Peterson factors will play a major role in improving the Orioles this season. We've never stressed conditioning like we are this season. There were too many occasions when the team looked flat or tired in the past. How many losing streaks were caused by the lack of proper conditioning of the players and the pitchers never seemed to get past the 5th inning and looked tired after throwing 90 pitches. This year is going to be different and it appears we have added more athletic type players with better OBP and with speed for the OF and IF. 80 wins+ this season. Who will DD trade Reynolds for and where will our surplus pitchers end up? Deal for Matt Cain?

[DrungoHazewood]

The team's first losing season in this streak was 1998, the year the team changed to the ornithological correct bird on its caps. This is our first season to not have that logo on the primary cap since then.

Good a reason as any to have a winning season this year. It's certainly not because we're fielding a team that's meant to be competitive.

They adopted the ornithologically correct bird for the 1989 season.

[NCRaven]

In the rotation, only Hunter and Matusz were acquired or drafted under MacPhail. Arrieta was drafted in 2007 (same draft as Wieters, when Flanagan was still GM), Chen and Hammel were acquired by Duquette.

In the bullpen, Jim Johnson pre-dated AM and candidates like Wada, Ayala, Lindstrom, and O'Day were acquired by Duquette. Patton, Gregg, and Simon are AM guys.

In the lineup, 4 of 5/6 players, Reimold (LF), Markakis (RF), Wieters © and Betemit/N. Johnson were acquired before or after AM.

My only point is that, as with any first year GM or manager, the roster will be comprised of players brought in under the previous (in our case two previous) regimes along with his own. Fact is, under MacPhail, by the most objective measure - wins and losses - this team has sucked. If they are .500 or better this year, my credit still goes to DD for infusing some life. Changes behind the scenes have made me even more optimistic about the future. (ie. move the Angelos sycophants into do nothing jobs this year, move them out of the organization next year in my dream world, reap the benefits of an expanded international effort, player development, sports performance conditioning in the minors, etc.).