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What if Duquette's plan for 2012....works?


Frobby

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Reading the board, I think about 90% of the posters (me included) think that Duquette is dreaming if he thinks it likely that this team plays .500+ baseball in 2012. But, what if it does happen? Will you view the team's future over the next several years in a different light? Will you be willing to give Duquette more of a benefit of the doubt? Or will you see it as a lucky blip on the radar that has no real long-term meaning and says nothing about Duquette?

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I see a plan:

- If free agents aren't willing to sign here, then go abroad and find talent.

- Pitching, pitching, pitching. The more pitching depth, the better.

- Better teams through better scouting and drafting.

I think it's a fine strategy for the situation that this team is in. We have to build the team organically and gain some level of success in order to allow us to take the next steps.

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The big difference between a close to .500 club and the 69 W we got was Matusz' meltdown. Had he pitched to modest expectations we would have been close to .500, inspite of Vlad's and DLee's underperforming and the injuries to BRob and Luke. Barring major injuries to position players, or huge and unexpected regressions, we should be close to .500 this year regardless of what Matusz does. The SP is deep enough to cover for a normal injury and regression rate. With some improvements, say from Matusz and Arrieta, and decent performance from Chen, we could be above .500, IMO. If this happens I'll be pleased, but unless we get super performance from Chen and Wada, I'll regard it as AM's team, performing up to it's potential.

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The only way this team finishes above 500 if the players that were here before DD arrived really had good seasons.

I don't even know what DD's plan is right now based on player acquisitions for this year, so I can't even answer this question.

My first reaction was to post something quite similar. It seems Duquette's "plan" was to restructure the scouting and development departments and augment the current core of the team with heavy influence from Buck regarding the on-the-field product. This has led to some head-scratching acquisitions and some seemingly impulsive moves connected by a very thin thread.

But, like SG said, there is certainly a chance that this team takes a big step forward, but it would require much more growth from the young players that Andy MacPhail acquired than from the bits and pieces Duquette has added. The only two 2012 acquisitions I see that have the upside to make an impact are Chen and Antonelli (should he show enough glove and bat to stick as a regular).

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I don't think the chaces are good that we get to .500, but I don't think they're miniscule either.

DD's plan seems to be:

1) expect more out of the guys already here. My guess is that Buck has driven this expectation. For this to happen, 2010 needs to prove to be an anomalously bad season given our talent level.

2) augment our pitching, in starters and relievers. He brought in a real "pitcher" in Wada, a guy with nice upside in Chen, a previously very good reliever in O'Day, a couple of guys who he's hoping prove better than Guthrie and he's hoping Eveland can really contribute.

3) trust that hard work and preparation (new theories with the O's) will improve performance.

So, our 2010 offense (basically, but with some upside) plus pitching that performs at league average and you get a .500ish record. It's not a horrible plan. However, the long term success of DD will be in re-aligning payroll with performance, netting good players from trades that need to happen and signing good MiL players through the draft or int'l. That'll require the hiring of good scouts and avoiding bad contracts. In that regard, the next year will be really illuminating, as I don't think much of his biggest tasks have actually happened yet.

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In order to get this team above .500, it'd have to take career years from practically everyone and a lot of guys playing way over their heads. Essentially, 1989 seasons from Jeff Ballard and Bob Milacki type stuff. I remember 1989 and how great they were, then how useless they went on to be.

I don't think it would take career years from people, but they would certainly have to be better than last year.

15 games better to be precise.

Think Matusz, Britton, Markakis, Wieters - If they all improve over last year. What if Matusz starts pitching like the ROY candidate everyone in baseball thought he was?

Johnson covers Gregg in the pen, Vlad/Lee/Pie/Reimold is replaced by Davis/Betemit/Reimold/Miller/Chavez.

This was a league average offense last year with very good power (fourth in the AL behind BOS, NYY and TEX) but poor OBP. The pitching and defense was awful.

These questions:

-If the defense plays closer to league average, how much will that help the pitching?

-If the pitching plays closer to league average, how much will that impact the defense?

And if the offense remains right around league average and the pitching and defense plays closer to league average why is a .500 season so out of the question?

Once again, because I have a label around here - I am not expecting a .500 season. I just don't think it is as impossible as some think.

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Plan plan plan.. show me the plan, I don't know the plan, what's the plan, is there a plan. LOL.. you guys are hilarious. Please forward me to the location where other team's GM have provided their fans the detailed plan you seem to think you deserve from ours.

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The only way this team finishes above 500 if the players that were here before DD arrived really had good seasons.

I don't even know what DD's plan is right now based on player acquisitions for this year, so I can't even answer this question.

Yup.

If this did happen, then the ball would be in DD's court to add to that surprising success via trades and good FA signings while continuing to improve the rest of the org.

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