Chris Davis is a Keeper

[brianod]

He's been worth -0.5 rWAR, 0.4 fWAR. So, you could argue it either way. Personally, I'd say he is better than replacement. But, a .304 OBP from a guy who doesn't play the field very much or very well is not a good performance, despite the homers.

Reynolds is sub-replacement on both rWAR (-.8) and fWAR (-.1).

See, this is what is wrong with calculus professors making judgments about baseball players. Sub replacement level means neither should be on the major league roster, correct? So, we have developed statistics to prove to us that neither Reynolds or Davis belong on a major league roster? My post was a positive reaction to a man who won a game hitting a homer very few other men in the game could even think about. In one season, Davis has now hit a homerun with a broken bat and another homerun, to the opposite field, with one hand on the bat. Now, I don't pretend to understand rWar or fWAR but I do understand someone with unusual strength. Someone who can hit a ball out of Comerica one handed to the opposite field has done something special. Someone with that kind of strength deserves patience to see if he can overcome the flaws in his game imo.

I may seem like a neanderthal but I do actually understand how obp is more important than avg. I do understand some of Bill Jame's and his disciples logic. But I also understand that big strong guys beat small weak guys. I understand that a guy who throws 97 deserves more patience than a guy who throws 90. I understand how a guy who can hit one handed home runs and broken bat home runs deserves more patience than a little guy that walks a lot.

Moneyball make scouts look like idiots and physical attributes appear unimportant. The truth lies somewhere in between imo.

[joedogg9999]

Chris davis is a very solid #5-6 hitter DH. He was actually pretty decent in the OF.

He clearly has 30-35 hr power and when hes on hes very good. His problem is his 2 for 40 slumps that are pretty frequent. But id say hes definitely worth keeping.

[El Gordo]

I'm confused. Davis looks to be a 20+ HR 80 RBI, .750+ OPS batter who can play a decent 1B, LF, RF, and DH. How is that sub replacement level?

[murrayfan420]

lol. Yes he does. But, Reynolds is no Tony Phillips. His 332 obp is probably below average for 1b. I don't even know how I got drawn into this. All I said is that Davis is a keeper and the Reynolds apologists come out of the woodwork. Actually, I'm rooting for both of them.

You pointed to 30 point difference in BA as a key indicator of batting runs in.. then laughed at a 30 point difference in OBP creating those runs? Something doesn't jive.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'm confused. Davis looks to be a 20+ HR 80 RBI, .750+ OPS batter who can play a decent 1B, LF, RF, and DH. How is that sub replacement level?

I'm surprised you're asking this question actually.

1. Because WAR doesn't care about RBI's and HR's and looks at weighted averages (woba/wRC+).

2. Because his 748 OPS w/ low OBP equates to about a 94 wRC+ (6% below average production for an average player) and other teams generally get far more than below average offensive production for positions like LF/RF/DH/1B.

3. Because other than a small sample size in LF the defensive metrics show him below average at every position.

4. A 94 wRC+ for a DH isn't very good and easily below replacement.

That said, I do think Davis has gotten the shaft a bit on his WAR this year having to bounce around at different positions and DH. If he were playing his natural position of first base, it's reasonable to assume his WAR would be better, but probably not much more than a bit above replacement level and certainly below average.

[Leitch]

I'm confused. Davis looks to be a 20+ HR 80 RBI, .750+ OPS batter who can play a decent 1B, LF, RF, and DH. How is that sub replacement level?

You say he's a .750 OPS guy as if that is the low end of your expectations of Davis going forward, even though his career numbers are a hair below that and this season's numbers are eerily close to those, despite a fantastic start. .750 OPS is not good for a first baseman, corner outfielder, or DH. A .300 OBP is especially atrocious.

I really like Davis and I'm kind of tired of bashing him. But I just don't think he's our first baseman of the future. I don't think he will start making enough contact to be a first division starter. I don't think he has much development left; maybe he starts making more contact one day and turns into Jay Gibbons, but it's much more likely he's Josh Phelps.

[zero1]

Ok, so he's got power. What else does he bring to the table? He doesn't get on base at a good clip, he doesn't have speed, he doesn't work a pitcher, and he isn't a good defensive player at any position. He's a fastball hitter who at times can get hot and hit other pitches but usually struggles with any other type of pitch. If a #7 or #8 hitter in the lineup is a keeper I guess you're right.

[SrMeowMeow]

I'd take Reynolds over Davis in terms of 2013 production. Davis does have a little upside left, but probably not a ton. He's not even a Mark Reynolds who swings through everything because he always swings at full strength, he's waving at breaking balls that come nowhere near the strike zone at any point.

[CA-ORIOLE]

You say he's a .750 OPS guy as if that is the low end of your expectations of Davis going forward, even though his career numbers are a hair below that and this season's numbers are eerily close to those, despite a fantastic start. .750 OPS is not good for a first baseman, corner outfielder, or DH. A .300 OBP is especially atrocious.

I really like Davis and I'm kind of tired of bashing him. But I just don't think he's our first baseman of the future. I don't think he will start making enough contact to be a first division starter. I don't think he has much development left; maybe he starts making more contact one day and turns into Jay Gibbons, but it's much more likely he's Josh Phelps.

In a way I actually agree with Brianod that he has more upside than Reynolds. I disagree about him necessarily being a keeper, and the outlook on him achieving that upside based on what he's done so far seems fairly improbable imo. I mean it's possible Davis could be Mark Trumbo next year. I just don't see it as a very good possibility and I think we shoud be looking for better alternatives.

[Flosman]

In a way I actually agree with Brianod that he has more upside than Reynolds. I disagree about him necessarily being a keeper, and the outlook on him achieving that upside based on what he's done so far seems fairly improbable imo. I mean it's possible Davis could be Mark Trumbo next year. I just don't see it as a very good possibility and I think we shoud be looking for better alternatives.

I completely agree if you can figure out a way to get a better option we should be on it. However I also think he is not the death of next years chances if he gets 450+ abs next season.

[Brendan25]

I've been driving Davis' bandwagon since May. The guy has a ton of potential. Let's keep in mind that he isn't a 21 year old kid with time to develop. He needs to learn plate discipline a little quicker then Adam Jones did.

His power is just absolutely unreal. I truly believe that if he was a little more disciplined in the strike zone, he could be an Adam Dunn type of player.

Take away last year, we would all be thrilled with someone like Dunn as our DH.

[DrungoHazewood]

See, this is what is wrong with calculus professors making judgments about baseball players. Sub replacement level means neither should be on the major league roster, correct? So, we have developed statistics to prove to us that neither Reynolds or Davis belong on a major league roster? My post was a positive reaction to a man who won a game hitting a homer very few other men in the game could even think about. In one season, Davis has now hit a homerun with a broken bat and another homerun, to the opposite field, with one hand on the bat. Now, I don't pretend to understand rWar or fWAR but I do understand someone with unusual strength. Someone who can hit a ball out of Comerica one handed to the opposite field has done something special. Someone with that kind of strength deserves patience to see if he can overcome the flaws in his game imo.

I may seem like a neanderthal but I do actually understand how obp is more important than avg. I do understand some of Bill Jame's and his disciples logic. But I also understand that big strong guys beat small weak guys. I understand that a guy who throws 97 deserves more patience than a guy who throws 90. I understand how a guy who can hit one handed home runs and broken bat home runs deserves more patience than a little guy that walks a lot.

Moneyball make scouts look like idiots and physical attributes appear unimportant. The truth lies somewhere in between imo.

Wow... I mean, just wow. I understand that you really like Davis and you're upset, but you're basically arguing that results don't matter. That if you're a big, strong guy who can occasionally hit homers then 1500 PAs in the majors isn't even close to a fair trial, even if (or maybe because) he has any number of other huge weaknesses like the inability to adequately field, or that he has a strike zone roughly the size of Wyoming. In three of the five months of 2012 he's hit under .230 with an OBP well south of the minimally acceptable .300 (sorry to bring numbers into the argument again).

CA-Oriole did a fine job of explaining why Davis' mix of skills and results has gotten him to replacement level. He does have some chance of developing beyond this, but realistically he's 26 and hasn't been a positive offensive contributor since his good debut season. So the odds are good that he's never going to be much better than this. You can wish and hope and call me a propeller-hatted Bill James loser all you want, but it doesn't change the facts that Chris Davis hasn't had a particularly good year, nor career, and he's at an age where that's probably not going to change.

[DrungoHazewood]

His power is just absolutely unreal. I truly believe that if he was a little more disciplined in the strike zone, he could be an Adam Dunn type of player.

Dunn has exceptional plate discipline. Davis has abysmal plate discipline. It would be somewhere between unique and exceptionally rare for someone with Davis' results to date to develop Dunn's skills or attributes. Sammy Sosa is the only player I can think of with a career anything like what you're hoping for, and he was helped to some extent by... well, let's just say a late-in-life devotion to working out.

Actually, if you want a great Davis comp, just look in the Orioles' dugout. Jim Presley was the Chris Davis of the 1980s.

[Frobby]

See, this is what is wrong with calculus professors making judgments about baseball players. Sub replacement level means neither should be on the major league roster, correct? So, we have developed statistics to prove to us that neither Reynolds or Davis belong on a major league roster? My post was a positive reaction to a man who won a game hitting a homer very few other men in the game could even think about. In one season, Davis has now hit a homerun with a broken bat and another homerun, to the opposite field, with one hand on the bat. Now, I don't pretend to understand rWar or fWAR but I do understand someone with unusual strength. Someone who can hit a ball out of Comerica one handed to the opposite field has done something special. Someone with that kind of strength deserves patience to see if he can overcome the flaws in his game imo.

I may seem like a neanderthal but I do actually understand how obp is more important than avg. I do understand some of Bill Jame's and his disciples logic. But I also understand that big strong guys beat small weak guys. I understand that a guy who throws 97 deserves more patience than a guy who throws 90. I understand how a guy who can hit one handed home runs and broken bat home runs deserves more patience than a little guy that walks a lot.

Moneyball make scouts look like idiots and physical attributes appear unimportant. The truth lies somewhere in between imo.

I am not a slave to stats, I just posted them to explain the comment made by another poster. However, I also don't think you can end the analysis with "Davis has now hit a homerun with a broken bat and another homerun, to the opposite field, with one hand on the bat." We all know the guy is strong and capable of hitting 25+ homers. The issue is, what else can he do to help the team win? He doesn't field well, and he gets on base at a very low rate. That diminishes his value pretty severely.

[Nolanseye14]

I don't understand why pitchers even bother throwing Davis a strike. Yesterday is an example of what Davis is... he crushes an opo HR and then strikes out in the next at bat on a pitch that was practically a pitch out. Davis has never had good plate discipline... why do you think Texas gave a guy up for Koji who was raking in the minors (even though it was the PCL league).

Now if somehow Davis could change his approach and be in more 2-1 counts instead of 1-2 counts we could have found a gem. But at this season has shown he is what he is. A guy who will hit 25 hrs and never walk.

At least when Reynolds K's he typically misses a strike and works the pitcher.