Adam Dunn on the Block?

[DrungoHazewood]

RBI and runs scored, as you know, are much more dependant on a guy's teamates than his own production.

Dunn will get fewer RBI than other middle of the order hitters because of his low batting average and high walk rate. Most RBI are on hits, and Dunn just doesn't get a whole lot of them. That doesn't mean that his presence doesn't lead to more runs for the team, he certainly does, but its not him driving them in. The bottom line is the key to scoring a lot of runs isn't getting lots of hits or homeruns, but avoiding as many outs as possible. His OBP will show you that he's great at doing that. The fact that he also hits 35-40 HR a year is just icing on the cake.

I'm thinking the if we landed Dunn, that we should bat Tejada behind him. Dunn will get on base a whole lot, and then Tejada can get him over or in with all of the hits that he provides.

If I had Dunn I'd think about batting him second.

[Mark Carver]

I saw Itallion Stallion bring up the point that anyone batting in the 4th spot should bat in at least 100 runs over a full season, in a discussion about Magglio Ordonez. That got me to thinking about Dunn. Isn't the following an indictment of Dunn as a middle of the order hitter.

From 2003-2005 Dunn had 98 RBI in 621 AB's which is well over one full season for someone who walks as much as he does. Last year he had 24 RBI in 169 AB's in the 4th spot. That doesn't project to anything close to 100 RBI.

In 2003, Tony Batista with the Orioles, hit 227/243/463/706, drove in 46 RBIs, all while batting 4th in 242 ABs.

[MP]

Drungo thanks for responding back there about pitchers and strikeouts. Sorry for the delay in my response, I haven't been around much lately.

I guess to me it's always seemed contradictory, that the same people who plainly type "strikeouts don't matter" will turn around and seek high strikeout pitchers. If you applied this to football, it's like saying you prefer a defense that generates a lot of fumbles but then when analyzing running backs you say "Oh fumbles don't matter." Well just like the strikeouts, which is it? It can't work both ways. If some element of a game helps a given team win, then it hurts the opponent. I just can't get around that.

But specifically about Adam Dunn, I would have responded like this:

Is Dunn an example of a batter who hit's for a high average and consistently produces runs?

The guy batted about .230 this year and struckout 190+ times. Is there no limit to where even the stat guys start to say "Hmmmm....maybe he's not so good...". I mean how low does AVG need to go before it'll be important enough to cite? What if he batted .200 but still hit 40 homers and walked a lot. Still good for a team? How about .180?

[mikezpen]

I cannot see this guy, at least not making him a central part of your batting order.

He strikes out way too much, his BA w/MOB is terrible, he can't hit lefties for the most part.I keep hearing this OPS and OBA stuff, but most of it's walks and not good hitting.

3-year stats 2003-2005 2006 in parenthesis

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6763&type=batting3

against LH pitching .241 (.270-but only .215 vs, righties now:D )

RISP -.236 (.221)

runners on .243 (.217 !!!!)

runner on third, less than 2 out .195 (.150)

He's a poor hitter in the power spots in the order (and even worse this year)

He's fanned a third of the time over his career, This year it was almost 40% (and people knock Cory Patterson?)

Bases loaded .231 (.273 this year-whoopee)

In .2005, I compared his to the abysmal situational numbers Sosa put up. For the most part, Sosa's were better. Maybe I'd give them Benson for him; that's about it. Bat him 6th or 7th. This guy isn't the answer.

[DrungoHazewood]

But specifically about Adam Dunn, I would have responded like this:

The guy batted about .230 this year and struckout 190+ times. Is there no limit to where even the stat guys start to say "Hmmmm....maybe he's not so good...". I mean how low does AVG need to go before it'll be important enough to cite? What if he batted .200 but still hit 40 homers and walked a lot. Still good for a team? How about .180?

He still made outs less often than all but 23 NL players (who qualified for the batting title). That's valuable. Yes, a bit less valuable than someone who never struck out but posted otherwise identical stats. Yes, a bit less valuable than someone who got on base 36% of the time but hit for a higher average.

But he's a valuable player nonetheless, far more valuable than the junk the O's have been throwing out at DH, LF, and 1B for years.

Find me a DH/1B who hits 40 homers, gets on base 36% of the time, makes contact more often than Dunn, hits for a higher average than Dunn, and can be acquired for a similar price, and then I'll say we don't want him.

[bryanman8]

Find me a DH/1B who hits 40 homers, gets on base 36% of the time, makes contact more often than Dunn, hits for a higher average than Dunn, and can be acquired for a similar price, and then I'll say we don't want him.

And is only 26 years old.

I don't think they're going to find many. Just a hunch, though.

[MP]

But he's a valuable player nonetheless, far more valuable than the junk the O's have been throwing out at DH, LF, and 1B for years.

Can't disagree with that. And we could certainly do worse than a 40 homer guy.

I'll just go on record and say that IMO if we actually acquired Dunn and watched him play every day, it would be generally dissapointing to many people who were pretty excited about him on a statistical level. He's one of those guys where it's fun to look at his season end stats and percentages, but on a daily basis he's more frustrating than anything else.

I'd sure as heck take him over Fahey though...

[mikezpen]

So Dunn's better than what we have now. That's not much to recommend him.

[bryanman8]

I cannot see this guy, at least not making him a central part of your batting order.

He strikes out way too much, his BA w/MOB is terrible, he can't hit lefties for the most part.I keep hearing this OPS and OBA stuff, but most of it's walks and not good hitting.

Maybe we should get Placido Polanco?

.295 BA

Higher OPS vs. LHP than RHP.

Hitting .323 with runners on.

Only 27 K's in 461 AB's.

Hitting .519 with runners on third and less than 2 outs.

Is that "good hitting" to you?

You need to prioritize. No one is claiming Adam Dunn is flawless.

What we are claiming is that:

-He would likely to get on base at at least a 38% rate here. Despite the low BA, he's OBP'ed .388, .387, .365 the last three years. I personally think he'd consistently do over .400 here.

-Despite hitting for a low average, he makes it count when he puts it in play. The last three years he has: 46, 40, and 40 homers, 34, 35, and and 24 doubles, and 2 triples in the middle year, respectively. That's tons of firepower for a guy not at his prime yet.

-Striking out is not great, but statistical evidence has shown it is hardly worse than any other out. Sure, Dunn struck out the most in the league this year with 194 K's, but do you know who was a close 2nd with 181? Ryan Howard. 5th was Alfonso Soriano. 11th Jim Thome. Most of the best hitters strike out tons. And it hardly hurts their value.

-Batting average, while nice if all else is equal, hardly means anything alone. Unless there's another guy within like .005 OBP points of him with a much higher BA, the higher OBP reigns supreme.

Dunn's not perfect, but he's among the best hitters in the league and he's only 26. He'd be a near-perfect acquisition.

[bryanman8]

So Dunn's better than what we have now. That's not much to recommend him.

Also, him being as good of a hitter as Miguel Tejada, i.e. around 53rd in baseball, in an off-year when he got terribly unlucky down tons from his previous few years when he's only 26 should gain him some respect, I'd think.

[rolliefingers]

If I had Dunn I'd think about batting him second.

Exactly.

Roberts

Dunn

Markakis

Tejada

at the top of the order?

:002_sdrool:

[bryanman8]

Exactly.

Roberts

Dunn

Markakis

Tejada

at the top of the order?

:002_sdrool:

Sign Soriano, Lee, or Aramis too, and I'd say we're pretty well-off for next year.

I'd think about this order, if it was at all possible:

1. Markakis

2. Dunn

3. Tejada

4. Soriano/Lee/Aramis

5. Hernandez

6. Roberts

7. Millar/ Gibbons

8. Mora? Dellucci? Wilson?

9. Patterson/ Cruz Jr.

That lineup would honestly be near the best in baseball.

[MP]

Also, him being as good of a hitter as Miguel Tejada, i.e. around 53rd in baseball, in an off-year when he got terribly unlucky down tons from his previous few years when he's only 26 should gain him some respect, I'd think.

Ahh c'mon, Dunn is nowhere near the hitter of Miguel Tejada. If you are saying that based on certain statistics they theoretically help their teams at an equal level, that's fine. But let's not put them on the same level in reality. They have severely different talent levels.

And their respective approaches are night and day. Dunn is so much more willing (than most in baseball) to let close balls go by. If it catches the corner for strike 3, so be it. If it's off the plate for ball 4, so be it. He's up there to mash what he likes and miss everything else. Tejada, meanwhile, is up there to hit the ball where it's pitched, to a fault. You have to miss by a mile for Tejada to take a pitch with 2 strikes on him.

If you want to build hypothetical seasons with an OBP / OPS team priority, then I suppose many would go with Dunn. But if you want to win a weekend series in the Bronx, I'd take Tejada any day of the week.

[mikezpen]

Dunn batting second isn't all that ridiculous. His splits show him doing reasonably well there-and also 7th. He jst doesn't hit well in the middle of the order...ok--I know. Hitting doesn't count any more.

[bryanman8]

Ahh c'mon, Dunn is nowhere near the hitter of Miguel Tejada. If you are saying that based on certain statistics they theoretically help their teams at an equal level, that's fine. But let's not put them on the same level in reality. They have severely different talent levels.

And their respective approaches are night and day. Dunn is so much more willing (than most in baseball) to let close balls go by. If it catches the corner for strike 3, so be it. If it's off the plate for ball 4, so be it. He's up there to mash what he likes and miss everything else. Tejada, meanwhile, is up there to hit the ball where it's pitched, to a fault. You have to miss by a mile for Tejada to take a pitch with 2 strikes on him.

If you want to build hypothetical seasons with an OBP / OPS team priority, then I suppose many would go with Dunn. But if you want to win a weekend series in the Bronx, I'd take Tejada any day of the week.

Who cares if their approaches is different? The measure RC/27 was designed to account for just that and hypothesize how many runs a team would score if made up of exactly 9 of those players per game. Dunn's patient power approach is clearly better than Tejada's approach of swinging at everything and not walking nearly enough.

I love Miguel, but when you don't account for position, this is the only year when Tejada's even been particularly close to Dunn in terms of offensive value.