Orioles are one of the teams that the Twins have contacted in regards to Justin Morneau

[soxhotcorner14]

For me at 1b:

Reynolds Plan A

Morneau Plan B

Morse Plan C

Why is Butler in a plan for 1b discussion? All I have read is he is awful defensively there and isn't more than a DH.

He's not in the discussion for 1B. But wherever gets his MOO bat depends on what positions he needs to address. If Butler was acquired, in this scenario he would be your DH. Possibly stick with Davis at 1B and McLouth/Reimold in LF.. Off season complete offensively.

[OrioleMagic79]

That is not even close to describing how WAR is measured. You are thinking of Win Probability Added. And even then, the hypothetical player described above would not have a good WPA, though it would be artificially inflated by perceived "clutchness".

Fine, that doesn't make the stat any more valuable in my eyes...

"If a team’s starting center field gets injured and they have to replace that player with a Triple-A player, how much value would that team lose? That’s the conceptual basis of replacement level; it’s the level of talent that’s freely available on the free agent market at any time."

These are the two statements that are ridiculous to me...why would I care if MR is better than a AAA player or a free agent that nobody wanted? I am trying to figure out who I should sign in the offseason, and there are many options right now via FA and trade being discussed that make MR look like a very unattractive option right now...

I need to know if LaRoche, Butler, Swisher, or Morneau is better than Reynolds right now...not whether Mark Reynolds's best career offensive year would result in 2 more wins (at first base like the poster above pointed out) than a AAA first baseman would...or a first baseman that nobody would sign in the offseason would...

Why is the bar SO FREAKIN' LOW? That's a terrible way to compare whether MR is a good signing or not...why not compare his overall performance with Morneau? Or Butler? Or LaRoche? I'm not even talking about Hamilton here, just the realistic options...

And my point about when he gets his hits, etc., what if he shows that he'll be good for 2 WAR this year, then it's now crunch time and he's about to get us those 2 wins...and then he doesn't...it's a ridiculous stat...it's crunching a bunch of numbers to predict something that is not predictable...

So you weight how important a few of his hits were from last year and then you rely on that this year? He (hypothetically) got two game winning plays last year that some terrible player wouldn't have? How do we know he wasn't lucky and the replacement wouldn't have been grooved a strike down the middle and MR gets the best pitch Mariano Rivera has ever thrown to strike him out in this made-up scenario...

The whole thing is ridiculous...clutch performance in baseball is something that you know it when you see it, and some guys seem to just be more clutch than others, but no matter how hard someone wants to try and calculate it, it will never be able to be seen on a stat sheet, much less predicted in the future...

[soxhotcorner14]

I'm not even quite sure where to begin here. If you don't like WAR, then lets use some other metrics. There have been an even 100 corner infielders who've played at least 200 games since 2007. Among those 100 Reynolds is:

9th in home runs

12th in runs scored

27th in doubles

14th in RBI

13th in walks

31st in OPS

By almost any reasonable metric he's an above-average offensive player.

The 200 players baseline is a bit watered down. That 200 includes Joe Mahoney that we all know had a cup of coffee and was sent back down. I want to see how he compares to the everyday starters on all 29 other teams. Can you provide those stats so we can see where he's ranked in that setting? Thank you.

[El Gordo]

That isn't true. The replacement value at first base is so much higher than that at third that he would need to exceed his career avg offense to reach 2 WAR.

His average oWAR is 1.9 so if he has 0 dWAR, he is about a two W player. Last season he was a 2.9 oWAR.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Why is the bar SO FREAKIN' LOW? That's a terrible way to compare whether MR is a good signing or not...why not compare his overall performance with Morneau? Or Butler? Or LaRoche? I'm not even talking about Hamilton here, just the realistic options...

Um, it doesn't really matter where you set the bar, you just need a common reference point that you compare all players to. It's easy to compare Reynolds, Butler, or LaRoche - you look at their WAR.

[MurphDogg]

His average oWAR is 1.9 so if he has 0 dWAR, he is about a two W player. Last season he was a 2.9 oWAR.

First, 1.9 is not between 2 and 3. But more importantly, oWAR includes a positional adjustment so his oWAR would be less if he played first base. This is the reason that WAR isn't equal to oWAR plus dWAR.

[Can_of_corn]

His average oWAR is 1.9 so if he has 0 dWAR, he is about a two W player. Last season he was a 2.9 oWAR.

Gordo, when you hold your cursor over oWAR on the BB ref player page it clearly says oWAR+dWAR does not equal WAR.

[DrungoHazewood]

The 200 players baseline is a bit watered down. That 200 includes Joe Mahoney that we all know had a cup of coffee and was sent back down. I want to see how he compares to the everyday starters on all 29 other teams. Can you provide those stats so we can see where he's ranked in that setting? Thank you.

Joe Mahoney has played 200 major league games since 2007? I must have missed that.

[Fan4Life]

I need to know if LaRoche, Butler, Swisher, or Morneau is better than Reynolds right now...not whether Mark Reynolds's best career offensive year would result in 2 more wins (at first base like the poster above pointed out) than a AAA first baseman would...or a first baseman that nobody would sign in the offseason would...

Without knowing the money or commitment required, my best guess of those items would lead my preference order at 1b to be:

Reynolds

LaRoche

Morneau

Morse

[DrungoHazewood]

Fine, that doesn't make the stat any more valuable in my eyes...

"If a team’s starting center field gets injured and they have to replace that player with a Triple-A player, how much value would that team lose? That’s the conceptual basis of replacement level; it’s the level of talent that’s freely available on the free agent market at any time."

These are the two statements that are ridiculous to me...why would I care if MR is better than a AAA player or a free agent that nobody wanted? I am trying to figure out who I should sign in the offseason, and there are many options right now via FA and trade being discussed that make MR look like a very unattractive option right now...

I need to know if LaRoche, Butler, Swisher, or Morneau is better than Reynolds right now...not whether Mark Reynolds's best career offensive year would result in 2 more wins (at first base like the poster above pointed out) than a AAA first baseman would...or a first baseman that nobody would sign in the offseason would...

Why is the bar SO FREAKIN' LOW? That's a terrible way to compare whether MR is a good signing or not...why not compare his overall performance with Morneau? Or Butler? Or LaRoche? I'm not even talking about Hamilton here, just the realistic options...

And my point about when he gets his hits, etc., what if he shows that he'll be good for 2 WAR this year, then it's now crunch time and he's about to get us those 2 wins...and then he doesn't...it's a ridiculous stat...it's crunching a bunch of numbers to predict something that is not predictable...

So you weight how important a few of his hits were from last year and then you rely on that this year? He (hypothetically) got two game winning plays last year that some terrible player wouldn't have? How do we know he wasn't lucky and the replacement wouldn't have been grooved a strike down the middle and MR gets the best pitch Mariano Rivera has ever thrown to strike him out in this made-up scenario...

The whole thing is ridiculous...clutch performance in baseball is something that you know it when you see it, and some guys seem to just be more clutch than others, but no matter how hard someone wants to try and calculate it, it will never be able to be seen on a stat sheet, much less predicted in the future...

The place where you set the bar is largely irrelevant. You could make it "wins below Babe Ruth" and the relative values of each player would remain the same, they'd just all be scaled to a different baseline. Instead of Mark Reynolds being 1 WAR he'd be -10 WBBR, and instead of Mike Trout being 10 WAR he'd be -1 WBBR.

But the baseline is set at a replacement player because that's an appropriate measure of a major leaguer's value. You accumulate value in the majors by being better than free talent.

[Moose Milligan]

Don't need two concussion cases on the right side of the infield.

[canonfaz]

Don't need two concussion cases on the right side of the infield.

Yeah. What if they ran into each other

[Can_of_corn]

Don't need two concussion cases on the right side of the infield.

Don't need one.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Wilson Betemit had an OPS of .859 vs. RHPs in 2012. He is under contract for 2013 for about $2m and is already on the team.

Justin Morneau had an OPS of .902 vs. RHPs in 2012. He is under contract for 2013 for $14m and will cost at least one or two prospects to acquire.

Neither player can hit lefties. Even if MIN eats several million, you're still paying $6-8 million and prospects for a fairly marginal improvement.

I'd rather use those resources to acquire a proven SP like Joe Saunders.

[soxhotcorner14]

Joe Mahoney has played 200 major league games since 2007? I must have missed that.

That's my bad, I misread what you wrote. I thought you meant out of 200 1B's played since 2007.