Josh Hamilton market update - 3 years $60-75 million

[MemorialStadKid]

I don't accept that myth either. Its pretty clear that they could increase payroll. But they aren't going to, so come join the rest of us in reality. You'll be less angry.

As far as the additional bat goes, it could be anyone. Its for the DH spot. I've pointed out before how Betemit/Valencia basically amounts to Konerko from last year. That's a solid player.

I'd rather have Swisher than Hamilton. I'm hopeful they will sign/trade for someone before the season. If they don't, I'll be upset. But I'm not going into your territory of vitriol any time soon.

Extreme disappointment does not = vitriol. Not by a long shot.

I am constantly disappointed by this FO.

Love the team, hate the FO.

Still wondering what kind of offensive upgrade we are working on signing?

MSK

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Typical Orioles off season.

A player we could have afforded has signed with another team that really didn't need him. Now, the Angels may be literally unstoppable. It's going to be a massacre in OPACY when they come to visit and I wonder what all the naysayers and anti-FA people will say when Hamilton does another 3-3 or 4-4 night?

It's funny how everyone forgets about payroll come June when the high-priced guy is raking in HRs, RBIs and other offensive stats.

5/125 is not the end of the universe. It is affordable. I'm tired of hearing about market size and so on. Baltimore is not Omaha, Nebraska.

So we have Davis? DAVIS?!?!?!!? On 1B.

Lord almighty.

The Red Sox signed Dempster. Even in a "Rebuild" mode, they still don't want to lose any games. Meanwhile, the good ol' Orioles FO keeps things the way they are... hoping for the best while not preparing for it.

Dumpster diving can work if everyone over-performs and things happen to break your way. Recreating 2012 in 2013 with no significant upgrades is pure insanity. Yet, this is the path we are told will work.

With not ONE real offensive upgrade. Please tell me how wrong I am and how I am a troll for pointing this out, but we have not upgraded anything in the face of the Blue Jays retooling and Red Sox putting the pieces back together. And as much as we might hate to admit it, the Yankees aren't finished yet and the Rays manage to hang in there year after year since 2008.

This is going to be a tough year.

MSK

Replacing Reynolds' ABs with Machado and a Betemit-Pearce/Valencia platoon will be a pretty significant upgrade. Same with replacing Chavez's ABs with Reimold and/or McLouth. And Davis will be fine. Not great, but not not awful either. 2012 was a fairly SSS, and he's been average-ish there over the rest of his career.

Relax, bro. We're going to be fine.

[Guest jtaz28]

I don't accept that myth either. Its pretty clear that they could increase payroll. But they aren't going to, so come join the rest of us in reality. You'll be less angry.

This made me laugh my ass off.

[SteveO]

First, Hamilton's WAR last year was 3.4. Torii Hunter, who they lost, had over 5. They need some pitching. The winner of the offseason rarely wins in the postseason.

Beyond that, this is easily the most predictable post of the offseason. You are a troll, and you are the only one who doesn't realize it.

I do believe the Orioles, as constructed, will have a league average offense (perhaps slightly better), but I do believe they need another bat. Unlike you, and much like a rational person, I know that another bat does not have to come from only Hamilton.

I know every one is statistic happy but Hamilton is a upgrade over Torii Hunter. I don't care what the WAR says, he is a better player right now. He is also EXACTLY the kind of player they need to protect Pujols IMO. Personally I think this was smart signing for the Angels. They can afford it and he makes them better.

I do agree with you 100% though that 5/125 was to much. I also agree 1000% that they need another bat. I like you think that they do not need to commit to 5/125 to make that happen. Personally I would be happy if they can land say Morse. Yea the guy only had a OBP of .321 but his career avg OBP is .347 even including last years .321 OBP. He has a little pop in his bat and could easily hit 20-25 HR @ OPACY.

Adding a guy like him would provide a much better option at DH than say the Valencia/Betemit/Reimold trio being tossed around on the board. He also provides a serviceable alternative at 1B if Davis struggles defensively and/or gets hurt. Morse or a guy who can put similar like numbers would make this offensive lineup IMO much better in that he allows guys like Betemit, Valencia and Reimold to be exactly what they should be next year... depth and insurance.

[luismatos4prez]

Extreme disappointment does not = vitriol. Not by a long shot.

I am constantly disappointed by this FO.

Love the team, hate the FO.

Still wondering what kind of offensive upgrade we are working on signing?

MSK

I'm not happy about the idea of Davis starting at 1B either. In my opinion, it's a mistake just like putting him and Reynolds at the corners last year.

But Duquette and Buck were so outstanding last year that they've earned my patience. If things start going horribly wrong on the field, I'll be just as upset as you are.

I don't believe last year was a fluke though by any means. I think we have a GM and a manager that are excellent at running a team, despite our self-imposed salary restrictions.

Haven't they at least earned enough of your respect for you to give them a chance?

[El Gordo]

My concern is OBP. We need at least 3 guys we can reasonably expect to have a ,350 OBP or better. Right now we have one. Nick. We know it's a serious need and we have done nothing to address it.

[McNulty]

I know every one is statistic happy but Hamilton is a upgrade over Torii Hunter. I don't care what the WAR says, he is a better player right now. He is also EXACTLY the kind of player they need to protect Pujols IMO. Personally I think this was smart signing for the Angels. They can afford it and he makes them better.

I do agree with you 100% though that 5/125 was to much. I also agree 1000% that they need another bat. I like you think that they do not need to commit to 5/125 to make that happen. Personally I would be happy if they can land say Morse. Yea the guy only had a OBP of .321 but his career avg OBP is .347 even including last years .321 OBP. He has a little pop in his bat and could easily hit 20-25 HR @ OPACY.

Adding a guy like him would provide a much better option at DH than say the Valencia/Betemit/Reimold trio being tossed around on the board. He also provides a serviceable alternative at 1B if Davis struggles defensively and/or gets hurt. Morse or a guy who can put similar like numbers would make this offensive lineup IMO much better in that he allows guys like Betemit, Valencia and Reimold to be exactly what they should be next year... depth and insurance.

Re: Hunter/Hamilton, I was simply pointing out how metrics see them. If price wasn't an object, I'd rather have Hamilton too. But, Hunter (IMO) is the better defender, and he's certainly more durable. There's also the off field stuff, which is a big deal when comparing these two. Its not quite the slam dunk that it seems to be at first. Hunter signed a two year deal for half the yearly price.

As far as Morse, it would depend on the cost. Would I trade Matusz for him? Probably not. But someone of his ilk is probably what's required to put this offense into a solid state.

[Moose Milligan]

Extreme disappointment does not = vitriol. Not by a long shot.

I am constantly disappointed by this FO.

Love the team, hate the FO.

Still wondering what kind of offensive upgrade we are working on signing?

MSK

Dude, you realize who the owner of the Orioles is, right?

Do you do realize that the last high priced FA's we signed were, like, Javy Lopez, Rafael Palmeiro and Miguel Tejada.

You can sit here all day and whine and moan about how they could afford more...and you know what? You're probably right. They probably could afford more.

But when you stop to think that the Orioles are owned by Peter Angelos...and when you stop to think that he hardly ever, ever spends money....you should probably not be surprised by the type of players the Orioles don't sign every single offseason.

And yet, we get post after post, thread after thread whining about it from you. Why? Why act this way when you should know that the Orioles never sign players like Hamilton?

[SteveO]

I'm not happy about the idea of Davis starting at 1B either. In my opinion, it's a mistake just like putting him and Reynolds at the corners last year.

But Duquette and Buck were so outstanding last year that they've earned my patience. If things start going horribly wrong on the field, I'll be just as upset as you are.

I don't believe last year was a fluke though by any means. I think we have a GM and a manager that are excellent at running a team, despite our self-imposed salary restrictions.

Haven't they at least earned enough of your respect for you to give them a chance?

Buck and Dan did a wonderful job...does not mean we cannot question moves though. Does not make people less of a fan because they do. This is a discussion board. If the O's making the playoffs means we should stop question moves made then they might as well close up shop here (please dont...love this board lol)

I have concerns about Davis at 1B but am like most people on here more than willing to give it a go. My bigger concern at this point is Valencia/Betemit/Reimold at DH. Also am concerned that if Davis does not pan out defensively then who the hell is gonna play 1B?

I gotta believe the O's will bring in a bat and more specifically a guy who can also play 1B if need be. Reynolds kinda fits that bill. I would have been happy with him back, especially at the price he signed for or even a few bucks more. If they can bring in a guy like Morse, that will answer most of those concerns though.

Still early DD may have something up his sleeve. I cant see him going into ST without a contingency

[SteveO]

Extreme disappointment does not = vitriol. Not by a long shot.

I am constantly disappointed by this FO.

Love the team, hate the FO.

Still wondering what kind of offensive upgrade we are working on signing?

MSK

Dude I get what your saying. The pauper act is ridiculous. Fact is though that is what DD has to work with and frankly I think he is doing a pretty good job to this point.

Hamilton was NEVER going to happen. Just like Prince and Tex were NEVER going to happen. Sure the O's made them offers that sound nice till you see what they actually got to sign. Honestly I do not think the O's were ever going to sign Prince or Tex and the offers were more of a dog and pony show.

At the end of the day the O's are not as poor as they make them out to be but they are also not the type of team with the revenue that can or should be running around offering 5/125 any one player unless that guy is already in house and its about keeping that guy here. Even then its a questionable call. 25 million in one player is just to much for a team that cannot sustain a payroll higher than 150 million. Even then its 1/6 of your payroll.

If your measure of the O's is simply what guy they overpay for then your gonna be disappointed. Me I am more interested in judging what guys they can underpay for and get great production from. Frankly a guy like Morse or Reynolds would have made much more sense for the O's long term than committing to 25 million a year for Hamilton.

[McNulty]

It seems petty to say a move is bad because a team paid, say, $7 million to add a win; but if they spent $70 million to add a win, that would be bad, right? Improving at any cost can’t be a certain moral good. There has to come a point where it’s okay to say that a contract looks like a mistake. Signing Hamilton for five years and $125 million is probably a mistake.

The Angels aren’t paying Hamilton to match his career-best season, but at these rates they are paying him to match his second-best season, repeatedly, throughout his mid-30s. Over the past two seasons, he’s been a little worse than a four-win player or a little better than a four-win player, depending on the URL you type in. He’s in the stage of his life that carries the biggest risk of collapse with just a slim chance of improvement. As Ben wrote last week, he’s not the type of hitter who ages well:

Because Hamilton doesn't add any value via the walk, most of his offensive performance hinges on what happens when he makes contact. The outcome of a batted ball is dependent on two things: speed and quality of contact. The early 30s are when bat speed starts to slip and reaction time suffers. If Hamilton had better command of the strike zone, his ability to take walks could compensate for his inevitable declines in other areas. As it is, his offensive value is closely tied to skills that soon start to fade in free agents of a certain age.

He’s not moving in the right direction either. In 2011, he swung at 38 percent of the pitches out of the zone; in 2012, 44 percent, the second-highest rate in the game (between Miguel Olivo and Delmon Young). In 2011, he made contact on 83 percent of swings inside the strike zone; in 2012, it was 76 percent, the sixth-worst rate in the majors. (Both of the preceding based on 1,000-pitches-seen minimums.) He has averaged just 123 games per season in his career, during a six-year stretch that represented his physical peak. And he’s got the reddest flag in the sport. There are so many ways for this to go wrong. “/whew,” I bet at least one Rangers executive is saying right now.

Had the Mariners or the Orioles pulled it off, this move might have crippled the franchise for a half-decade. For the Angels, it’s probably just a contract that’ll expire before you know it.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19164

[DrinkinWithFermi]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19164

But...but....but...he hit 43 BOMBS last year!

[scOtt]

Typical Orioles off season.

A player we could have afforded has signed with another team that really didn't need him. Now, the Angels may be literally unstoppable. It's going to be a massacre in OPACY when they come to visit and I wonder what all the naysayers and anti-FA people will say when Hamilton does another 3-3 or 4-4 night?

It's funny how everyone forgets about payroll come June when the high-priced guy is raking in HRs, RBIs and other offensive stats.

5/125 is not the end of the universe. It is affordable. I'm tired of hearing about market size and so on. Baltimore is not Omaha, Nebraska.

So we have Davis? DAVIS?!?!?!!? On 1B.

Lord almighty.

The Red Sox signed Dempster. Even in a "Rebuild" mode, they still don't want to lose any games. Meanwhile, the good ol' Orioles FO keeps things the way they are... hoping for the best while not preparing for it.

Dumpster diving can work if everyone over-performs and things happen to break your way. Recreating 2012 in 2013 with no significant upgrades is pure insanity. Yet, this is the path we are told will work.

With not ONE real offensive upgrade. Please tell me how wrong I am and how I am a troll for pointing this out, but we have not upgraded anything in the face of the Blue Jays retooling and Red Sox putting the pieces back together. And as much as we might hate to admit it, the Yankees aren't finished yet and the Rays manage to hang in there year after year since 2008.

This is going to be a tough year.

MSK

I would have expected no less from you MSK.

[scOtt]

Just remember, high priced free agents have never done the trick for us (OK, Palmeiro and Alomar are exceptions). I am glad we are not paying A-Rod 25 million a year right now. Do you really want to be paying Hamilton 25 million in 2017? If you do that, then maybe we aren't able to extend Wieters or Bundy when the time comes. We have gotten to where we are by developing players from within. No we did not make any upgrades through free agency, but we have Bundy and Gausman in the pipeline, along with some good prospect in Schoop and Flaherty. That's how we will improve our team. We may not have done much, but at least we didn't do anything stupid.

Hippocratic Oath. Do no harm. Better by increments. Each move, better. Better. Better.

[Frobby]

This is why I loathe the discussions around here in the offseason. It is so damned redundant.

There have been 23 threads with Hamilton in the title in the last two months. The same points have been made over and over for the last two months. And it has been 100% clear for most of that time that the Orioles were not really interested at all in pursuing him. So why does it take 23 threads to address it? And by the way, that's just the threads with Hamilton in the title. I count 250 threads in the last two months where Hamilton is mentioned, and I'm sure in many of them he was a major topic of conversation.

Meanwhile, there was a poll thread on October 15: "do you want to pursue Josh Hamilton"? Exactly 2/3 of the voters said no. There was another thread yesterday, "do you wish the Orioles had offered Hamilton 5/$125 mm"? 66 percent said no. In other words, nobody has changed their original position in the last two months, despite the ridiculous amount of time spent discussing something that CLEARLY wasn't going to happen.

What a waste of time.