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Josh Hamilton Shows Up Early 25 lbs Lighter

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isestrex Hangout Grand Counsel

isestrex

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It won't change his power numbers... but I am interested if it keeps him healthy.

However, no amount of weight will change him from chasing the most amount of bad pitches in the majors last year. People are starting to figure him out as a hitter and he's not going to get many pitches over the plate. Ordinarily this would be a bad thing for the pitching staff, especially if Hamilton bats ahead of Pujols and Trumbo. But he actually swings at the bad pitches and (unlike Vlad) can't hit them. I think his days of batting over .300 are over.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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It won't change his power numbers... but I am interested if it keeps him healthy.

However, no amount of weight will change him from chasing the most amount of bad pitches in the majors last year. People are starting to figure him out as a hitter and he's not going to get many pitches over the plate. Ordinarily this would be a bad thing for the pitching staff, especially if Hamilton bats ahead of Pujols and Trumbo. But he actually swings at the bad pitches and (unlike Vlad) can't hit them. I think his days of batting over .300 are over.

I would have been very happy had he repeated last year's line (.285/.354/.577) in the middle of the Orioles lineup the next five years. We'll see if you are correct or not, but I don't think pitchers suddenly "figured him out." He's got a lot of baseball in him.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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I dont see anything wrong with this. Most MLB players lose about 20lbs during the season. If he has a program that is designed to keep him at his best weight so be it.

Like Tony said.. I'd take that line over the next 5 years in a heartbeat.

The Angels are not going to get that line, just like the O's would not have. Not for five years.

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isestrex Hangout Grand Counsel

isestrex

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I would have been very happy had he repeated last year's line (.285/.354/.577) in the middle of the Orioles lineup the next five years. We'll see if you are correct or not, but I don't think pitchers suddenly "figured him out." He's got a lot of baseball in him.
I dont see anything wrong with this. Most MLB players lose about 20lbs during the season. If he has a program that is designed to keep him at his best weight so be it.

Like Tony said.. I'd take that line over the next 5 years in a heartbeat.

How about this line:

                                       Year   Age  AB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS2010    29 518  95 .359 .411 .633 1.0442011    30 487  93 .298 .346 .536  .8822012    31 562 162 .285 .354 .577  .930

His slash line is on the way down and his strikeouts have ballooned up as pitchers have learned to pitch to him. You can't just freeze his .930 OPS and say, "perfect, I'll order one of those for 5 straight years please. With a side of 40 homers too". More than likely those numbers are going to continue to decline with perhaps 1 or 2 years of statistical outliers.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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How about this line:
                                       Year   Age  AB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS2010    29 518  95 .359 .411 .633 1.0442011    30 487  93 .298 .346 .536  .8822012    31 562 162 .285 .354 .577  .930

His slash line is on the way down and his strikeouts have ballooned up as pitchers have learned to pitch to him. You can't just freeze his .930 OPS and say, "perfect, I'll order one of those for 5 straight years please. With a side of 40 homers too". More than likely those numbers are going to continue to decline with perhaps 1 or 2 years of statistical outliers.

Um, that slash line is not on the way down. He had a career year in 2010, fell back in 2011, and bounced back a bit in 2012. His strikeouts ballooning last year are a bit of concern, I'll admit that, and he should not be in center field anymore, but when a guy puts up a .882 OPS in his down year, he's pretty darn good.

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Il BuonO Hangout Grand Counsel

Il BuonO

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Um, that slash line is not on the way down. He had a career year in 2010, fell back in 2011, and bounced back a bit in 2012. His strikeouts ballooning last year are a bit of concern, I'll admit that, and he should not be in center field anymore, but when a guy puts up a .882 OPS in his down year, he's pretty darn good.

Wow, voice of reason. It's become vogue around here to pile on Hamilton even when the facts don't line up. The Angels paid too much and I think he would have produced more in our ballpark as opposed to Anaheim, but he will still be productive for the first three years of this deal. I think the rise in strike outs last year were due to him trying to hit more HRs in a contract year, but there were plenty of people here that discounted SO as just another out when they defended Reynolds. Hamilton's OBP and slugging pct. far out distances anything Reynolds has done. I also think the move to left field will help his longevity and cut down on injury.

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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Wow, voice of reason. It's become vogue around here to pile on Hamilton even when the facts don't line up. The Angels paid too much and I think he would have produced more in our ballpark as opposed to Anaheim, but he will still be productive for the first three years of this deal. I think the rise in strike outs last year were due to him trying to hit more HRs in a contract year, but there were plenty of people here that discounted SO as just another out when they defended Reynolds. Hamilton's OBP and slugging pct. far out distances anything Reynolds has done. I also think the move to left field will help his longevity and cut down on injury.

I suspect his numbers will go down not playing 81 games a year in Arlington. Still, his splits were pretty even last year. The other factor will be how many games he can stay on the field. He looks like an approx 130+ OPS guy for the next few years. I'm guessing he could be above average in LF defensively, but not an elite fielder. Maybe a 4/4.5 WAR guy. Good, but an awful lot to pay 5/125 for. Sounds like he came in pretty light to ST.

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Il BuonO Hangout Grand Counsel

Il BuonO

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I suspect his numbers will go down not playing 81 games a year in Arlington. Still, his splits were pretty even last year. The other factor will be how many games he can stay on the field. He looks like an approx 130+ OPS guy for the next few years. I'm guessing he could be above average in LF defensively, but not an elite fielder. Maybe a 4/4.5 WAR guy. Good, but an awful lot to pay 5/125 for. Sounds like he came in pretty light to ST.

Good points, thanks. I wasn't pointing to him becoming an elite defender in LF only that it might be less taxing on his body over the course of a full season. Purely speculative of course.

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TGO Hangout Grand Counsel

TGO

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Not sure how it will effect his batting line but it could make him more nimble in the field.

BTW, his career slash line at Angels stadium:

260/325/440/765

The Angels typically have good pitching and that's in 166 plate appearances, a small sample size. His line going forward there is more likely to be in line with his overall career averages than his previous performance at Angels Stadium (though with deductions for age-related decline and possibly playing fewer games in Arlington).

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