Vegas over under for Orioles wins 76.5

[TiredofLosing20]

I am fairly Bearish on the 2013 Orioles. I do think I would bet over on the 76.5.

[SeaBird]

Early in ST I have the Orioles finishing the 2013 season below .500 but probably a few games over 76 total wins. By OD that number may go up or down.

[Mayor McCheese]

Wow, they've got the O/U on Cleveland at 86 wins. They won 68 games last year. Did they have that great an offseason?

I think they had a pretty decent offseason. Swisher, Bourn, Reynolds, and they got Stubbs via Trade. After all that they still have their 5th overall draft pick.

Coming off a 68 win season, yeah they had a pretty darn good offseason. Does that equal 18 more wins, thats for you to gamble :eektf:

[TradeAngelos]

Right before this line came out I heard it was going to be low to mid 70's and I was ready to pounce if it was about 73-4 or under. Can't do it at 76.5, I think that is a good line and there is no edge on either side.

[Number5]

Vegas whiffed hard on about half of MLB last year. They don't know anything more than us.

BTW, I don't really care they have us at 76 wins. If we are healthy we will beat that easily. If we aren't, we won't. Simple as that. The August/September Orioles were a legitimate 90 win team.

Vegas oddsmakers are actually very, very good. I seriously doubt if they whiffed hard on any team. Their goal is to get approximately half of moneys wagered to be place on each side of any particular line. Nothing more. They simply don't care how Baltimore or San Diego performs, they only want money to be bet on both sides evenly. The line is their take on the betting population, not the actual sporting events themselves. If more money than expected starts coming in on one side, they adjust the line in that direction until the moneys bet on each side balance out. They make money on the middle/vig and they rarely miss big.

[webbrick2010]

I think they had a pretty decent offseason. Swisher, Bourn, Reynolds, and they got Stubbs via Trade. After all that they still have their 5th overall draft pick.

Coming off a 68 win season, yeah they had a pretty darn good offseason. Does that equal 18 more wins, thats for you to gamble :eektf:

They also got Trevor Bauer, last years #9 Prospect in all of baseball.

[ShaneDawg85]

I'll take the over. 85-87 wins is my projection as of right now.

[Number5]

I would probably bet the over too. I just think its interesting Vegas's perception is so much lower than Baltimore's is of this team. There are a lot of stat head numbers people in Vegas. The stat heads/Sabermetrics people are expecting regression from the Orioles.

If a lot of people bet the over and a lot of money comes in on the over and Baltimore has a good season, Vegas will lose money. Interesting that Vegas likes teams like Cleveland and KC more than the Orioles who don't have large betting populations. The stat heads like Tampa because of their pitching (probably best in AL).

Again, this is NOT how Vegas oddsmakers view the teams. This is their take on how the betting population will act, not the teams. Rest assured, Vegas will not lose money. If more money than anticipated starts coming in on one side of any line, they will immediately adjust the line so that future betting will balance out each side. They don't "like" any team. They "like" to make money by having close to the same amount wagered on each side of every line.

[NewMarketSean]

I think they had a pretty decent offseason. Swisher, Bourn, Reynolds, and they got Stubbs via Trade. After all that they still have their 5th overall draft pick.

Coming off a 68 win season, yeah they had a pretty darn good offseason. Does that equal 18 more wins, thats for you to gamble :eektf:

What did they do to improve their last in the AL pitching staff?

[Mayor McCheese]

What did they do to improve their last in the AL pitching staff?

Not much, but they did sign Kazmir, Dice K, and B Myers. Not saying they are going to be good, but they can win some more games in the AL Central.

Just like Buck, Francona is good manager and will get more out of his players.

[Roll Tide]

2012

New York Yankees 93.5

Philadelphia Phillies 92.5/93

Los Angeles Angels 92.5

Detroit Tigers 92.5

Texas Rangers 91.5

Boston Red Sox 89.5

San Francisco Giants 87.5

Atlanta Braves 87.5/87

Tampa Bay Rays 87

Cincinnati Reds 86.5

Cleveland Indians 86.5

Arizona Diamondbacks 86

Miami Marlins 84.5

Milwaukee Brewers 83.5

Washington Nationals 82.5/84.5

St. Louis Cardinals 82.5/83

Colorado Rockies 82/81

Los Angeles Dodgers 81

Kansas City Royals 80.5

Toronto Blue Jays 80

Minnesota Twins 75/73

Chicago Cubs 74.5

Chicago White Sox 74

San Diego Padres 73.5

Pittsburgh Pirates 73

Seattle Mariners 72

Oakland A?s 71

New York Mets 70.5

Baltimore Orioles 69.5

Houston Astros 64.5/64

With all due respect my good man:D. But you could go back 9 more years and make the argument the other way. Past success doesn't insure future success and visa versa.

[Tony-OH]

Vegas oddsmakers are actually very, very good. I seriously doubt if they whiffed hard on any team. Their goal is to get approximately half of moneys wagered to be place on each side of any particular line. Nothing more. They simply don't care how Baltimore or San Diego performs, they only want money to be bet on both sides evenly. The line is their take on the betting population, not the actual sporting events themselves. If more money than expected starts coming in on one side, they adjust the line in that direction until the moneys bet on each side balance out. They make money on the middle/vig and they rarely miss big.

Thanks for the education. One question though, how does Vegas/bookies make money then if things are even on both sides? Are they getting a cut like in poker?

[TiredofLosing20]

Thanks for the education. One question though, how does Vegas/bookies make money then if things are even on both sides? Are they getting a cut like in poker?

If memory serves, they make money on over under by making the payout something less than 2/1. I think typically on over under bets, you will win about $83 on $100 or to put it another way you would have to bet you would have to bet $120 to win $100. If 6 people bet $100 and they bet evenly over and under then Vegas makes at least $51 bucks. They collect $600 and pay out $549. I think they will just change the payout totals to even out if bettors go too heavy one side or another.

Number 5 is correct. The line doesn't much matter other than they make it as attractive as they can to attract the largest volume of bettors without having it go too heavy over or under.

[waroriole]

If memory serves, they make money on over under by making the payout something less than 2/1. I think typically on over under bets, you will win about $83 on $100 or to put it another way you would have to bet you would have to bet $120 to win $100. If 6 people bet $100 and they bet evenly over and under then Vegas makes at least $51 bucks. They collect $600 and pay out $549. I think they will just change the payout totals to even out if bettors go too heavy one side or another.

Number 5 is correct. The line doesn't much matter other than they make it as attractive as they can to attract the largest volume of bettors without having it go too heavy over or under.

If I place a bet now, while it's still at 76.5, and the line moves up to 80 later, do I still win if they win 78 games?

[TiredofLosing20]

Yes. The line is what it is when you place the bet.

EDIT: Also if the line changes dramatically, it could create an opportunity to hedge your bet depending on the odds they place on the new line.