BP Playoff Odds Snapshot Thread

[SilentJames]

Detroit is not out of the woods with KC starting to catch fire.

Can anyone imagine a scenario where Oakland and Detroit don't win their divisions? They are both only up 3.

The Tigers are doing their usual "back-into-the-playoffs" thing offensively.

[Frobby]

Through 8/14/14

Over the last week, the Royals went 6-1, the Mariners went 5-1, he Orioles went 4-1, the Rays went 5-2, the Indians and Angels went 3-2, the Tigers and A's went 3-4, the Blue Jays and White Sox went 2-4, and the Yankees went 1-4.

Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BAL 69-50 91-71 94.0% 90.5%

TOR 63-59 85-77 10.4% 03.9%

NYY 61-58 82-80 07.0% 03.0%

TBR 60-61 82-80 06.1% 02.6%

DET 65-54 88-74 68.4% 52.7%

KCR 66-54 87-75 62.8% 44.5%

CLE 60-60 81-81 08.2% 03.7%

CWS 57-64 76-86 00.2% 0.01%

OAK 73-48 96-66 99.7% 62.3%

LAA 70-49 94-68 98.9% 37.0%

SEA 65-55 87-75 46.2% 02.8%

The Orioles by week:

7/31: 60-47 88-74 71.5% 49.2%

8/07: 65-49 89-73 86.3% 73.8% (5-2 this week)

8/14: 69-50 91-71 94.0% 90.5% (4-1 this week)

Look how much our division odds improved in just two weeks, all the way from 49.2% to 90.5%. We went 9-3 while the Rays went 7-6, the Yankees went 6-6, and the Blue Jays went 3-9.

By the way, what happens when the Orioles, Yankees and Blue Jays all lose, like last night? Our division odds improved from 90.5% to 91.3%! :beerchug1:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

[Can_of_corn]

Of course the odds improve, they have one less game left to run the O's down.

That is a reason to be glad you are in first place.

[Frobby]

Of course the odds improve, they have one less game left to run the O's down.

That is a reason to be glad you are in first place.

The sand is slipping through the hourglass.... :mwahaha:

[Frobby]

Through 8/21/14

Over the last week, the Angels went 6-1, the Orioles, Indians and Royals went 4-2, the Yankees, Mariners and Tigers went 3-3, the Blue Jays went 2-3, the Rays went 2-4, and the A's went 1-4.

Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BAL 73-52 93-73 98.2% 97.1%

TOR 65-62 83-79 05.2% 01.3%

NYY 64-61 82-80 04.7% 01.3%

TBR 62-65 81-81 01.2% 00.4%

KCR 70-56 89-73 73.6% 51.9%

DET 68-57 88-74 69.1% 44.7%

CLE 64-62 82-80 08.3% 03.4%

LAA 76-50 96-66 99.7% 68.6%

OAK 74-52 94-68 98.9% 31.0%

SEA 68-58 87-75 41.1% 00.5%

The White Sox's chances fell to 0.00% after our sweep, according to BP, so I've dropped them from the list.

The Orioles by week:

7/31: 60-47 88-74 71.5% 49.2%

8/07: 65-49 89-73 86.3% 73.8% (5-2 this week)

8/14: 69-50 91-71 94.0% 90.5% (4-1 this week)

8/21: 73-52 93-73 98.2% 97.1% (4-2 this week)

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

[foxfield]

Like sands through the hourglass...these are the days of our lives!!!!

[OFFNY]

Like sands through the hourglass ... these are the days of our lives!!!!

These are the days of our ORIOLE lives.

[weams]

Apparently, the Jays aren't going to lose any more games this year. Nope. We just went 7-3. And they picked up 2 games on us. That really pisses me off. Thank goodness Buck's Birds are the grinders of all grinders. They're so resilient. But man, it has to tick them off too if they're watching the standings.

I wonder if folks are still interested in lampooning Toronto for spending all that money to bring in the talent. They're for real. I think the division will come down to the Orioles and Toronto. And I fully expect Boston to make a late charge at respectability also.

They are really not good.

[OFFNY]

Apparently, the Jays aren't going to lose any more games this year. Nope. We just went 7-3. And they picked up 2 games on us. That really pisses me off. Thank goodness Buck's Birds are the grinders of all grinders. They're so resilient. But man, it has to tick them off too if they're watching the standings.

I wonder if folks are still interested in lampooning Toronto for spending all that money to bring in the talent. They're for real. I think the division will come down to the Orioles and Toronto. And I fully expect Boston to make a late charge at respectability also.

They probably weren't watching the standings ....... which is probably one of the biggest reasons why they have continued to successfully grind out the marathon baseball season, one inning at a time, one game at a time, one series at a time.

[Frobby]

Through 8/28/14

This week the Yankees went 5-2, the Indians and Mariners went 4-2, the Tigers, Royals, Angels and A's went 4-3, the Orioles and Rays went 3-4, and the Blue Jays went 2-4.

BAL 76-56 92-70 97.9% 96.8%

NYY 69-63 84-78 08.4% 02.7%

TOR 67-66 81-81 01.4% 00.4%

TBR 65-69 80-82 00.3% 00.1%

KCR 74-59 89-73 72.8% 51.7%

DET 72-60 88-74 68.0% 44.4%

CLE 68-64 83-79 09.4% 03.8%

LAA 80-53 96-66 99.9% 70.4%

OAK 78-55 95-67 99.4% 29.3%

SEA 72-60 87-75 42.7% 00.3%

The Orioles by week:

7/31: 60-47 88-74 71.5% 49.2%

8/07: 65-49 89-73 86.3% 73.8% (5-2 this week)

8/14: 69-50 91-71 94.0% 90.5% (4-1 this week)

8/21: 73-52 93-73 98.2% 97.1% (4-2 this week)

8/28: 76-56 92-70 97.9% 96.8% (3-4 this week)

So, the Yankees went 5-2 while we went 3-4 and our odds of winning the division went down by.....wait for it.....00.3%. In fact, after our Friday night win, our odds are now 97.4%, better than they were before the Cubs series began. Why? Because the Yankees are simply running out of time, and the Blue Jays are basically out of the picture.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

[mdbdotcom]

From what I see or hear on national media, conversation about the Yankees now seems to center on the wildcard. I think the O's will have to go into a major swoon before people start talking about the Yankees challenging for the AL East pennant again.

[Frobby]

Through 9/4/14

This week the Orioles went 6-1, the Blue Jays went 5-1, the Angels went 4-2, the Tigers went 5-3, the Royals went 3-2, the Mariners went 4-3, the Yankees and Indians went 3-3, the Rays went 2-5, and the A's went 1-5. Tampa's chances are now deemed to be 0.00% so I've removed them from the list.

Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BAL 82-57 94-68 99.8% 99.4%

NYY 72-66 84-78 03.9% 00.4%

TOR 72-67 84-78 02.4% 00.3%

DET 77-63 89-73 77.5% 57.7%

KCR 77-61 88-74 65.0% 40.2%

CLE 71-67 84-78 06.3% 02.0%

LAA 84-55 97-65 100.% 91.7%

OAK 79-60 93-69 97.4% 08.0%

SEA 76-63 88-74 47.6% 00.3%

The Orioles by week:

7/31: 60-47 88-74 71.5% 49.2%

8/07: 65-49 89-73 86.3% 73.8% (5-2 this week)

8/14: 69-50 91-71 94.0% 90.5% (4-1 this week)

8/21: 73-52 93-73 98.2% 97.1% (4-2 this week)

8/28: 76-56 92-70 97.9% 96.8% (3-4 this week)

9/04: 82-57 94-68 99.8% 99.4% (6-1 this week)

We had the best record in the AL for the week and the odds are getting better by the day. 9.5 game lead, 23 to play. Toronto making a move on NYY but not gaining any ground on the Orioles.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

[Frobby]

Normally I only update this thread after Thursday night's games have been played.

However, I checked BP's playoff odds site today and they calculate the Orioles' chances of winning the division are:

100%

So, mathematically it is not over, but so far as BP is concerned, a comeback by the Jays or Yankees would be unprecedented.

Cherry on top: BP has the Yankees' chances of making the wild card game at 0.7%.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

[$Greatness$]

Normally I only update this thread after Thursday night's games have been played.

However, I checked BP's playoff odds site today and they calculate the Orioles' chances of winning the division are:

100%

So, mathematically it is not over, but so far as BP is concerned, a comeback by the Jays or Yankees would be unprecedented.

Cherry on top: BP has the Yankees' chances of making the wild card game at 0.7%.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Even though this was before my time, too...

Ain't the beer cold?

Yes! *Virtual High Five all OH members*

[callahan09]

O's still have the best record in the majors since the All-Star Break, and the best run differential & pythag W/L. And we have the head-to-head vs the Angels. As far as I'm concerned, they may have the better record, but we're still the better team!