What Would You Give Davis

[wildcard]

I can't see why anyone would think that the O's gave Jones 6 years and Davis would sign for less. Especially with Boras as his agent.

He could be signed for one or two year but he will walk after the second year.

[waroriole]

You don't pay someone for a career year when every other year has been mediocre.

[Dark Helmet]

You don't pay someone for a career year when every other year has been mediocre.

33 HR and a .827 OPS is mediocre? The way Texas handled Chris, he never got consistent AB.

[El Gordo]

Use this as a guide, I'm sure Scott will if they go to arbitration:

◾3 years/$54M (2009-11)

◾signed extension with Philadelphia 2/8/09 (avoided arbitration, $18M-$14M)

◾09:$15M, 10:$19M, 11:$20M

◾salaries for 2010, 2011 increase by $1M with MVP in previous season or by $0.5M with 2nd-place finish in MVP vote in previous season

◾award bonuses: $0.1M each for Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, WS MVP, All Star start; $50,000 each for All Star selection or LCS MVP

◾$1M assignment bonus if traded before 11/1/2010, with no bonus if traded thereafter

◾1 year/$10M (2008)

◾won in arbitration with Philadelphia 2/21/08 ($10M-$7M)Hit .251 .339 .543 .881, 46 HR, 146 RBI

◾1 year/$0.9M (2007)

[LookitsPuck]

You don't pay someone for a career year when every other year has been mediocre.

Being up and down with positions being juggled shouldn't be judged against him. The guy finally gets consistent playing time and puts up respectable numbers last year...yes, this is a career year, but I feel you judge him based on his minor league numbers prior to 2012 and his numbers from 2012 on for his contract.

[Aristotelian]

You don't pay someone for a career year when every other year has been mediocre.

He hit .270/.326/.501/.827 with 33 HR in 515 ABs (plus a Win) in 2012. So it's really 1 career year and 5/6 of a near-career year. His second half this year was about in line with 2012.

The problem is if we wait and he has another great year, he will be a year older and start getting into the $20 million range. I think we should expect some regression to his 2012 numbers but pay the man and lock him up on that basis.

[El Gordo]

I would look for an .850-.900 OPS, 40 HR, 100 RBI, year in 2014. If he does that or close to it, he'll get 15 M in arbitration.

[waroriole]

33 HR and a .827 OPS is mediocre? The way Texas handled Chris, he never got consistent AB.

Fair enough. He was average, maybe a little better, for a1B.

[Gurgi]

I would take a pretty good chance with this guy. I think he is just getting started. I think he will put up 6-8 30 homer years. I think he would be our David Ortiz but maybe better because he can actually play a position.

[Leo Gomez]

Buying out the final two arb years at $12m per, and four free agent years at $17m per, would be fair for both sides.

6/$92m

[El Gordo]

Fair enough. He was average, maybe a little better, for a1B.

League average for 1B, 2012: 258 .336 .442 .778 12 HR 40 RBI.

[Dark Helmet]

If the Orioles don't lock up Davis this winter, they need to start thinking about dealing him for his replacement. If Davis puts up another 30+ HR .850ish+ OPS in 2014, there's no chance Boras doesn't test FA. That also essentially takes him into 8/160M territory and thus well out of the aOrioles price range.

[waroriole]

League average for 1B, 2012: 258 .336 .442 .778 12 HR 40 RBI.

Is that starting 1B or just folks who have 1B by their name?

[VeveJones007]

If the Orioles don't lock up Davis this winter, they need to start thinking about dealing him for his replacement. If Davis puts up another 30+ HR .850ish+ OPS in 2014, there's no chance Boras doesn't test FA. That also essentially takes him into 8/160M territory and thus well out of the aOrioles price range.

I agree with this. This will probably be the most significant possible move of the offseason.

[El Gordo]

Is that starting 1B or just folks who have 1B by their name?

How do you define starting 1B, # PA? Of the 2012 AL 1B who qualified for the batting title, the average OPS was .797.