What Would You Give Davis

[schittenden]

Would it be possible to give him something like 5/80 with a option for year 6, and add on some incentives for production -- bonuses for every 10 HR over 30 or for every 10 RBIs over 90, something like that? I don't know what the rules are for contracts, but it seems something like that might provide a big enough guarantee to Chris with upside for exceptional performance that would justify the $100m+ contract and some downside protection for the Orioles in the event that 2013 was really just an aberration?

[DrungoHazewood]

Would it be possible to give him something like 5/80 with a option for year 6, and add on some incentives for production -- bonuses for every 10 HR over 30 or for every 10 RBIs over 90, something like that? I don't know what the rules are for contracts, but it seems something like that might provide a big enough guarantee to Chris with upside for exceptional performance that would justify the $100m+ contract and some downside protection for the Orioles in the event that 2013 was really just an aberration?

You can give incentives for playing time and a few other narrow things (like weight), but not specific performance-based milestones.

[El Gordo]

It's a moot point, whatever we offer, Boras will want more. We have Crush for two more years. Enjoy him for that.

[tilgaham]

The Davis contract is absolutely terrifying --- to me, at least. No matter what we do.

If we don't extend him this offseason, or at least before mid-season 2014, we're looking at a very realistic scenario where he continues to mash for another season or two and prices himself completely out of our market. Strangely, that's sort of the less scary option to me, though.

If we DO extend him now or before mid-season 2014, we're doing it after an unprecedented career year. And more importantly, we're taking a big risk with a player profile that generally ages terribly.

Ryan Howard (2006, age 26): .313/.425/.659/1.084, 162 wRC+, .346 ISO

Ryan Howard (2010-13, age 30-33): .258/.336/.480/.816, 117 wRC+, .222 ISO

Adam Dunn (2005, age 26): .247/.387/.540/.927, 138 wRC+, .293 ISO

Adam Dunn (2011-13, age 31-33): .197/.317/.405/.722, 96 wRC+, .208 ISO

Mark Reynolds (2009, age 26): .260/.349/.543/.892, 127 wRC+, .283 ISO

Mark Reynolds (2013, age 30): .220/.306/.393/.699, 96 wRC+, .173 ISO

Jack Cust (2007, age 28): .256/.408/.504/.912, 145 wRC+, .248 ISO

Jack Cust (2011, age 32): .213/.344/.329/.673, 97 wRC+, .116 ISO

Richie Sexson (2001, age 26): .271/.342/.547/.889, 124 wRC+, .276 ISO

Richie Sexson (2006-08, age 31-33): .235/.320/.443/.763 101 wRC+, .208 ISO

High K, high power, big-body type sluggers have a tendency to burn really bright for a really short period of time. Most of these guys were (or likely will be) almost entirely out of baseball by the time they were 33 or 34. Obviously, Davis could buck this trend (it appears Russell Branyan of all people did), but it's pretty harrowing to think about giving him an extension of any longer than about 4-5 years. If we're thinking somewhere in the ballpark of $18M/year, going as high as 7 years would have an uncomfortably high risk of payroll suicide on the back end.

Im hoping Chris Davis is more Frank Thomas than Ryan Howard. Let's throw 5/100MM out there and see if he bites.

[DrungoHazewood]

Im hoping Chris Davis is more Frank Thomas than Ryan Howard. Let's throw 5/100MM out there and see if he bites.

Frank Thomas had nine seperate seasons where he walked more often than Chris Davis did from his major league debut in 2008 through 2012. They are similar players except for the fact that Thomas had 332 times as much plate discipline.

[Redskins Rick]

If the man can hit 53 Bombs and drive in 135+, and doesn't hit into double plays.

I am willing to live with the Ks.

Would I like to see him strike out less. Of course.

But, he is a very good 2 strike HR hitter.

[Babypowder]

Im hoping Chris Davis is more Frank Thomas than Ryan Howard. Let's throw 5/100MM out there and see if he bites.

He'll get ~25 million over the next 2 in arbitration. You're essentially paying him 25 per over the 3 free agency years. That's awful risky for a guy who has shown to be worth close to that one time and on a team with no indications they will go much past 100 million on payroll. You'd have a little over 40 percent of it tied up in 2 players.

[tilgaham]

Frank Thomas had nine seperate seasons where he walked more often than Chris Davis did from his major league debut in 2008 through 2012. They are similar players except for the fact that Thomas had 332 times as much plate discipline.

I meant from an aging profile. No dispute who has the better eye.

[Frobby]

You are stopping a 5 years. But the O's have set the bar at 6 years with Jones. Add a 6th year and he is at 90m. Add that he is an above average player and he is at 100m.

Davis will be a year older when his deal starts than Jones was, and a year further away from free agency. And, as discussed, Jones had a longer track record from which to judge future performance. I'm not saying I wouldn't do a six year deal for Davis, just that I don't think the Jones deal "sets the bar." Their circumstances are different.

[Can_of_corn]

It's a moot point, whatever we offer, Boras will want more. We have Crush for two more years. Enjoy him for that.

And, once again, Boras works for the player, the player doesn't work for Boras.

Ultimately it will be Davis' decision.

[olehippi]

What Would You Give Davis?

All of Little Italy and Fells Point north of Fleet St. I hear both Davis and Boras love Italian food.

[weams]

[wildcard]

Davis will be a year older when his deal starts than Jones was, and a year further away from free agency. And, as discussed, Jones had a longer track record from which to judge future performance. I'm not saying I wouldn't do a six year deal for Davis, just that I don't think the Jones deal "sets the bar." Their circumstances are different.

I doubt Boras cares about the details. He will push for the longer deal.

[Frobby]

I doubt Boras cares about the details. He will push for the longer deal.

He would do that regardless of how long a deal Adam Jones got.

[isestrex]

And, once again, Boras works for the player, the player doesn't work for Boras.

Ultimately it will be Davis' decision.

Yes... but the majority of players want nothing to do with contract negotiations and say "just do your best and tell me where to sign my name."

If Chris wants to be involved, of course Boras well let him. But most prefer to stay out of it as much as possible.