What Would You Give Davis

[waroriole]

Davis was poor? SMH

Why is it, we under value our own talent.

Yet, other talent on other teams, we over value their actual worth!

You can shake your head all you want, but he was poor in TEX for all but one season. Here's his ML numbers:

2008: 317 PA's .285/.331/.549/.880 fWAR 0.9

2009: 419 PA's .238/.284/.442/.726 fWAR -0.7

2010: 136 PA's .192/.279/.292/.571 fWAR -0.7

2011: 210 PA's .266/.305/.402/.707 fWAR -0.6

While he was above average offensively last year, he was worth only 2 WAR. As a matter of fact, coming into this year he was worth less than 1 WAR for his entire career. That's not the kind of guy I want to go handing out 80M+ to just yet.

Now, that said, I think he's turned a corner and he's not the guy he was in TEX with a huge hole in his swing. I think he's become much more patient at the plate. The question is, do you think he's closer to 2012 Davis or 2013 Crush? That's why I prefer to wait and let him do it again, then I'll be more willing to give him a big contract.

[weams]

Five Seventy Eight. This Off Season. It is your only shot with Boras. Otherwise, goodbye Chris.

[waroriole]

Five Seventy Eight. This Off Season. It is your only shot with Boras. Otherwise, goodbye Chris.

I get it's a bit of a conundrum. If we don't sign him, and he has another 2013 season, he's going to be too expensive for us. If we do sign him based on his 2013 season, and he performs like he did in 2012, his contract will weigh us down. I think I'd rather roll the dice here, and ask him to do it again.

[El Gordo]

Five Seventy Eight. This Off Season. It is your only shot with Boras. Otherwise, goodbye Chris.

I agree. We should be after Abreu. Make Chris a qualifying offer in 2016 and take the pick. Plug Abreu into 1B.

[waroriole]

Five Seventy Eight. This Off Season. It is your only shot with Boras. Otherwise, goodbye Chris.

5/78 could break down like this:

14: 10M

15: 15M

16: 17M

17: 18M

18: 18M

That's a gamble. He basically needs to be at least a 3 win player per year. He's only been over 2 WAR once.

[Dark Helmet]

You can shake your head all you want, but he was poor in TEX for all but one season. Here's his ML numbers:

2008: 317 PA's .285/.331/.549/.880 fWAR 0.9

2009: 419 PA's .238/.284/.442/.726 fWAR -0.7

2010: 136 PA's .192/.279/.292/.571 fWAR -0.7

2011: 210 PA's .266/.305/.402/.707 fWAR -0.6

While he was above average offensively last year, he was worth only 2 WAR. As a matter of fact, coming into this year he was worth less than 1 WAR for his entire career. That's not the kind of guy I want to go handing out 80M+ to just yet.

Now, that said, I think he's turned a corner and he's not the guy he was in TEX with a huge hole in his swing. I think he's become much more patient at the plate. The question is, do you think he's closer to 2012 Davis or 2013 Crush? That's why I prefer to wait and let him do it again, then I'll be more willing to give him a big contract.

Chris Davis is a reason I don't get WAR. The Orioles could have just put Dan Johnson at 1B, and the Orioles would have only won 2 less games then having 53 HR batting in middle of the order? And it didn't appear he embarrassed himself at 1b either.

[waroriole]

Chris Davis is a reason I don't get WAR. The Orioles could have just put Dan Johnson at 1B, and the Orioles would have only won 2 less games then having 53 HR batting in middle of the order? And it didn't appear he embarrassed himself at 1b either.

I think you misunderstood. He was worth 6.8 WAR this year. He was worth 2 last year.

[Dark Helmet]

I get it's a bit of a conundrum. If we don't sign him, and he has another 2013 season, he's going to be too expensive for us. If we do sign him based on his 2013 season, and he performs like he did in 2012, his contract will weigh us down. I think I'd rather roll the dice here, and ask him to do it again.

Even the 2012 Davis is going to get a huge contract. If he repeats 2013 or even 2012 he's going to be unsignable. Boras will take it to FA and Davis is as good as gone. If the Orioles are not going to be players for established players with longer track records they are going to have to take gambles on their own. Otherwise just gut the team every other year and become the Marlins.

[Dark Helmet]

I think you misunderstood. He was worth 6.8 WAR this year. He was worth 2 last year.

Yeah my bad.

[waroriole]

Even the 2012 Davis is going to get a huge contract. If he repeats 2013 or even 2012 he's going to be unsignable. Boras will take it to FA and Davis is as good as gone. If the Orioles are not going to be players for established players with longer track records they are going to have to take gambles on their own. Otherwise just gut the team every other year and become the Marlins.

2012 Davis won't get a huge contract. If he does, that's someone else's problem.

.827 OPS 1B are not something you commit a lot of money to. I think he'll be better than that, but not as good as this year. Maybe around .270/.340/.550. So that give you 3-4 win player. It's a risky proposition to throw huge money at him now.

[weams]

2012 Davis won't get a huge contract. If he does, that's someone else's problem.

.827 OPS 1B are not something you commit a lot of money to. I think he'll be better than that, but not as good as this year. Maybe around .270/.340/.550. So that give you 3-4 win player. It's a risky proposition to throw huge money at him now.

If we are ever going to gamble, and I mean if we are going to sign ANY free agent over 21 million for three years, this is the guy you MUST gamble on. You can't ask him to do it again. The only way Chris has leverage on Boras is that he says...it's enough. I like it here. They are betting on me continuing to succeed. That does not happen if he has a 4 War season next year.

[Dark Helmet]

2012 Davis won't get a huge contract. If he does, that's someone else's problem.

.827 OPS 1B are not something you commit a lot of money to. I think he'll be better than that, but not as good as this year. Maybe around .270/.340/.550. So that give you 3-4 win player. It's a risky proposition to throw huge money at him now.

Problem is, waiting pretty much guarantees bidding against other teams in FA. With not much coming on the market in the next couple years teams like Bos, Tex, and Sea will be foaming to get Davis. Even if he is a .270/.340/.500 hitter. Especially one that will hit you 35-40 HR. Davis is a tough one for DD. It could literally make or break his tenure as GM.

[waroriole]

If we are ever going to gamble, and I mean if we are going to sign ANY free agent over 21 million for three years, this is the guy you MUST gamble on. You can't ask him to do it again. The only way Chris has leverage on Boras is that he says...it's enough. I like it here. They are betting on me continuing to succeed. That does not happen if he has a 4 War season next year.

If he's a .900 OPS guy next year, do you think he's going to continue to get better, stay around .900, or slowly start to decline?

[weams]

If he's a .900 OPS guy next year, do you think he's going to continue to get better, stay around .900, or slowly start to decline?

I don't know. I don't know how you can know. Texas did not know.

[srh523]

Do we have a thread somewhere about what we wanted to pay Hamilton? or maybe what we wanted to pay Tex? I mean come on.... if I was Davis I would tell you to pound sand and would be pissed the next two years and surely not signing.... if he signs an extension he is gonna start at $100 million.