Looking at the Big Picture

[section36]

I've been trying to step back this fall and look at the Big Picture when it comes to the Orioles. Overall, I'm a little nervous about what I see.

The good:

Overall, we have a very nice core of position players. Our group ranked 5th in MLB in fWAR at 26.6. The team finished 4th in the AL in runs, and made the fewest errors in major league history, finishing second in the AL in UZR. Six players were nominated for Gold Gloves, three of whom won, including the Platinum Glove winner. We had three players win the Silver Slugger. Three players started the All Star Game, and a fourth made it as a reserve. We had the HR and RBI champ. The everyday lineup is good enough to be a playoff team now, when you consider offense and defense combined.

We have built an excellent team culture. These guys have each others' backs, they work hard, and they're hard nosed. They play great defense every night and make few mental errors. It's a very easy team to root for.

We have an above average group of pitching prospects. Bundy/Gausman/Harvey/EdRod is a very nice top four, and Davies/Wright/Berry are a pretty nice second tier.

The bad:

Our present major league pitching staff is not playoff caliber, in fact, it's below average. We don't have a true ace, and everyone is pitching "up" one slot at least.

The talent we have in the minors is not ready to help. As I look back on 2013, the biggest tragedy was that Bundy needed to have TJ surgery instead of completing his minor league apprenticeship. Yes, there's a good chance he bounces back to be as good as we hoped, but he's not going to impact the major league team until 2015 at the earliest. Gausman was rushed a bit last year and needs another half-year in the minors at least IMO, and the others are further away than that.

Meanwhile, our offensive core is not that young (except Machado), and not under contract for that long. Hardy and Markakis could be gone in a year, and Davis and Wieters could be gone in two. If we are able to keep them, they'll be expensive and in their 30's. We may be precluded from keeping them and acquiring significant supplemental talent. (In Markakis' case, it's not clear he will be worth keeping at any price; it depends whether he bounces back to form in 2014, and even then, he'd need to take a significant pay cut.)

We have very little offensive talent in the minors. Schoop is the only player likely to make an impact in the next two years, and he is not ready and seems to have some holes in his offensive game.

So how good is this team for 2014-15, and where does that leave us?

We won 85 games last year, and to me, that's exactly what we were and figure to be if changes aren't made. I think our pitching could be a little better in 2014 if we resigned Feldman (after all, our ERA dropped from 4.39 to 3.93 in the second half). Our bullpen could get better results and we could have a better record in one-run games. So, there's a 90ish win upside if we leave the team "as is," but there's also an 80ish win downside if the team experiences injuries to one or two of its six core offensive players, none of whom had a single DL stint in 2013.

For me, "stay the course" makes little sense, unless we are trying to mimic the 2006-10 Toronto Blue Jays, who won 87, 83, 86, 75 and 85 games. Yet, the alternative courses are also dangerous. The free agent market is pretty mediocre, and the guys who clearly would help us will be very expensive and cost a draft pick. Even the guys who won't cost picks figure to be expensive with the new TV money that teams have available to spend. Shopping Hardy, as has been suggested, is not a bad idea, but it carries its own risks, as the infield defense is the strength of this team and it's unlikely that the combo of Machado at SS and whoever at 3B is going to be as good as Hardy/Machado have been. So, Hardy would have to bring back someone who very clearly would improve the pitching for a trade to make any sense.

Overall, I don't envy Dan Duquette. He's got his work cut out for him over the next two years, with a "pretty good" team that has a relatively short window in which to win, and very little help coming from the minor leagues in the foreseeable future. He's going to have to be both smart and lucky to put this team back in the playoffs while at the same time positioning the team to remain contenders in the longer run.

This is a fantastic summary and echoes my thoughts on the state of the Orioles almost exactly. I too am worried, as Duquette has TONS of pivotal decisions to make over the next 1-2 years on a significant core of the team: Hardy, Johnson, Davis, Wieters, Markakis. Making the right calls on these guys (who to sign and at what cost; who to trade and for what return) will almost solely determine the success or failure of the club over the next 5+ years. The farm system is improving, but it's nowhere near the point where we can replace this kind of talent and production internally. So if we're going to remain competitive, his decisions on the aforementioned 5 guys need to be "right" more often than not.

One thing that we don't have knowledge of but is obviously a huge factor in these decisions is the budget. If Angelos is going to continue to require an ~$100M team, then keeping everyone mentioned above is going to be pretty much impossible. Just using very rough figures:

- Jones, Davis, and Wieters you figure will require somewhere around an AAV of $15M each to retain. That's $45M for 3 players.

- Hardy and Johnson will likely require AAVs of somewhere around $10M each ($20M for 2 players).

That's $65M right there for 5 players, leaving you $35M to spend on the remaining 20 guys on the roster (average of $1.75M each). And this doesn't count Markakis at all, and I wouldn't at all be surprised if there's pressure from ownership to keep him.

So obviously, the math just doesn't add up or even come close. So unless Duquette is allowed to spend at least $125-$135M/year in the very near future, you're pretty much forced to trade at least one of Wieters, Davis or Jones. You likely won't be able to fill out a team otherwise.

So we have to hope that the budget is about to increase pretty significantly over the next 1-2 years. Otherwise, Duquette's decisions are going to be even tougher.

[wildcard]

Frobby, Very nice post.

I see one big difference in what DD is planning this year compared to last year. He appears to be in favor on adding a 5th starter. Last year he talked about adding Joe Saunders but when push came to shove, he didn't do it. He decided to have a competition in ST between Arrieta, Matusz, Steve Johnson etc. Well, that didn't work. The O's were behind the eight ball for much of the first half became of that decision and what it did to the team when Chen and Gonzo had injury problems.

There are a few starters on the radar including Feldman, Arroyo, Vargas, Burnett and Nolasco. I think if the O's acquire one of these guys the starters can pitch to a 4.00 ERA. The pen has a chance to pitch to a 3.00 ERA. Together they could have a 3.75 ERA which should be good enough to make the playoffs. A lot depends on how Gausman develops in the 2nd half.

I have some more to add about the big picture but have to go for now.

[hoosiers]

We do have a nice core, but, as noted above, we are on the outside looking in - IMO, we were last offseason as well.

I would like to see us trade major pieces for a strong run in 2015-6 - by which time Gausman, Bundy will be established in the majors with Harvey knocking on the door to go with Tillman, Manny and perhaps Schoop as our core guys. That core could be supplemented by whatever we get in trade for Wieters and the two JJs and perhaps Adam Jones. That would open up the possibility of entering 2015-6 with an incredibly talented, young and cheap core. I am not saying to deal all of our good veterans right away, but I would certainly move some of them tomorrow and others would wait for the right deal.

Before a final point, I want to make two observations. People here love JJ Hardy for his production, professionalism and contract - all good stuff, but people are talking extensions above for him and, while a different player, I would bet serious $ that the next Hardy contract will not provide much opportunity for a team to get nearly the value on the current one and would have a great chance of ending up like the LTCs we gave Mora, BRob and Nick. We need to deal these players at the end of their prime instead of offering contracts that extend beyond the player's peak production.

Second, I wouldn't deal JJ unless it was a fair deal. We give up quality, we get quality. Very simple. The overall talent level in the organization should stay the same, but we are dealing an older, higher $ player for a younger, cheaper player or two or three with upside. The team does not have to stink for two years just because we deal away our core. The lesson from the Bedard trade is that one can deal one's best player and be better off immediately and in the future. Few trades are as lopsided as that one, but the core lesson should not be missed. Dealing JJ Hardy does not mean we will be worse next year.

My final issue with all of this is that I do not believe the management as currently constructed is up for a rebuild. Buck did not sign up for a rebuild and I expect he would strenuously object to dealing one of these veterans even in an overwhelming deal. I believe there is some understanding that Buck will do his best with what he has and that it is up to the GM to get the talent in the minors to quality status. This is my conjecture, but I don't think Buck would be on board with a rebuild even if it is a minor one and we are a weaker organization for it. FWIW, I don't think PA would be on board with a rebuild either.

[weams]

We do have a nice core, but, as noted above, we are on the outside looking in - IMO, we were last offseason as well.

I would like to see us trade major pieces for a strong run in 2015-6 - by which time Gausman, Bundy will be established in the majors with Harvey knocking on the door to go with Tillman, Manny and perhaps Schoop as our core guys. That core could be supplemented by whatever we get in trade for Wieters and the two JJs and perhaps Adam Jones. That would open up the possibility of entering 2015-6 with an incredibly talented, young and cheap core. I am not saying to deal all of our good veterans right away, but I would certainly move some of them tomorrow and others would wait for the right deal.

Before a final point, I want to make two observations. People here love JJ Hardy for his production, professionalism and contract - all good stuff, but people are talking extensions above for him and, while a different player, I would bet serious $ that the next Hardy contract will not provide much opportunity for a team to get nearly the value on the current one and would have a great chance of ending up like the LTCs we gave Mora, BRob and Nick. We need to deal these players at the end of their prime instead of offering contracts that extend beyond the player's peak production.

Second, I wouldn't deal JJ unless it was a fair deal. We give up quality, we get quality. Very simple. The overall talent level in the organization should stay the same, but we are dealing an older, higher $ player for a younger, cheaper player or two or three with upside. The team does not have to stink for two years just because we deal away our core. The lesson from the Bedard trade is that one can deal one's best player and be better off immediately and in the future. Few trades are as lopsided as that one, but the core lesson should not be missed. Dealing JJ Hardy does not mean we will be worse next year.

My final issue with all of this is that I do not believe the management as currently constructed is up for a rebuild. Buck did not sign up for a rebuild and I expect he would strenuously object to dealing one of these veterans even in an overwhelming deal. I believe there is some understanding that Buck will do his best with what he has and that it is up to the GM to get the talent in the minors to quality status. This is my conjecture, but I don't think Buck would be on board with a rebuild even if it is a minor one and we are a weaker organization for it. FWIW, I don't think PA would be on board with a rebuild either.

Trading Hardy will be a rebuild. No need to trade him OR extend him.

[Frobby]

We do have a nice core, but, as noted above, we are on the outside looking in - IMO, we were last offseason as well.

I would like to see us trade major pieces for a strong run in 2015-6 - by which time Gausman, Bundy will be established in the majors with Harvey knocking on the door to go with Tillman, Manny and perhaps Schoop as our core guys. That core could be supplemented by whatever we get in trade for Wieters and the two JJs and perhaps Adam Jones. That would open up the possibility of entering 2015-6 with an incredibly talented, young and cheap core. I am not saying to deal all of our good veterans right away, but I would certainly move some of them tomorrow and others would wait for the right deal.

Before a final point, I want to make two observations. People here love JJ Hardy for his production, professionalism and contract - all good stuff, but people are talking extensions above for him and, while a different player, I would bet serious $ that the next Hardy contract will not provide much opportunity for a team to get nearly the value on the current one and would have a great chance of ending up like the LTCs we gave Mora, BRob and Nick. We need to deal these players at the end of their prime instead of offering contracts that extend beyond the player's peak production.

Second, I wouldn't deal JJ unless it was a fair deal. We give up quality, we get quality. Very simple. The overall talent level in the organization should stay the same, but we are dealing an older, higher $ player for a younger, cheaper player or two or three with upside. The team does not have to stink for two years just because we deal away our core. The lesson from the Bedard trade is that one can deal one's best player and be better off immediately and in the future. Few trades are as lopsided as that one, but the core lesson should not be missed. Dealing JJ Hardy does not mean we will be worse next year.

My final issue with all of this is that I do not believe the management as currently constructed is up for a rebuild. Buck did not sign up for a rebuild and I expect he would strenuously object to dealing one of these veterans even in an overwhelming deal. I believe there is some understanding that Buck will do his best with what he has and that it is up to the GM to get the talent in the minors to quality status. This is my conjecture, but I don't think Buck would be on board with a rebuild even if it is a minor one and we are a weaker organization for it. FWIW, I don't think PA would be on board with a rebuild either.

Buck clearly did not sign up for a total rebuild, but if he were convinced that a key trade or two would set the team up long term while not destroying the team's chances of competing in the shorter term, he might be up for it.

The difference between us and Tampa, IMO, is that Tampa is always trading from surplus. They traded a really good pitcher in Shields, but they could afford to do so because of all the amazing young pitchers they have. We don't have surplus. That's because our farm system has been a below average producer for a couple of decades now.

[weams]

Buck clearly did not sign up for a total rebuild, but if he were convinced that a key trade or two would set the team up long term while not destroying the team's chances of competing in the shorter term, he might be up for it.

The difference between us and Tampa, IMO, is that Tampa is always trading from surplus. They traded a really good pitcher in Shields, but they could afford to do so because of all the amazing young pitchers they have. We don't have surplus. That's because our farm system has been a below average producer for a couple of decades now.

Matusz. Britton. Steve Johnson. Patton. Schoop. Rodriquez.

Those are the only guys I can see us trading AT all. Even if it would be smart to trade Hardy, Markakis, Wieters, Jim Johnson, and Chris Davis. The regime that controls this team until 2018 has them on the protected list.

[Babypowder]

Matusz. Britton. Steve Johnson. Patton. Schoop. Rodriquez.

Those are the only guys I can see us trading AT all. Even if it would be smart to trade Hardy, Markakis, Wieters, Jim Johnson, and Chris Davis. The regime that controls this team until 2018 has them on the protected list.

All of those guys together will get you a real nice time share.

[weams]

All of those guys together will get you a real nice time share.

Matusz wll get you Zach Walters.

Britton will get you Jaff Decker.

More later.

[Babypowder]

Matusz wll get you Zach Walters.

Britton will get you Jaff Decker.

More later.

Matusz' salary gives him no value at all. He'll be a LOOGY making 2 million. He won't even fetch you a fringe prospect like Walters. Britton also won't get you anyone that another team likes. The Padres like Decker (a little) and they aren't going to give him up for a guy who has value equivalent to a ball of rubber bands.

[Tx Oriole]

You're right, they are pretty comparable. But Nick still has 2014 to play, which will go a long way towards determining his value.

By the way, I thought he Sox were nuts to offer Victorino 3/$39 mm. It paid off pretty well in 2013; we'll see about the next two years. I'm astounded that the Mariners made a QO to Morales, and equally astounded that he didn't take it. Drew is a little less surprising to me.

Trading Hardy will be a rebuild. No need to trade him OR extend him.

When is his contract up?

[weams]

He is signed through 2014 and can be retained for 2015 for 15 million.

[weams]

Matusz' salary gives him no value at all. He'll be a LOOGY making 2 million. He won't even fetch you a fringe prospect like Walters. Britton also won't get you anyone that another team likes. The Padres like Decker (a little) and they aren't going to give him up for a guy who has value equivalent to a ball of rubber bands.

I Bet Britton has that value.

[weams]

Matusz' salary gives him no value at all. He'll be a LOOGY making 2 million. He won't even fetch you a fringe prospect like Walters. Britton also won't get you anyone that another team likes. The Padres like Decker (a little) and they aren't going to give him up for a guy who has value equivalent to a ball of rubber bands.

Washington would pay 4 million for an effective lefthanded reliever. Matusz would have that value to them.

[Babypowder]

Washington would pay 4 million for an effective lefthanded reliever. Matusz would have that value to them.

They'd pay 4 million for a guy who can only face lefties? I don't think they're that stupid.

[weams]

They'd pay 4 million for a guy who can only face lefties? I don't think they're that stupid.

They are that stupid and that needy.