Why can't the Orioles draft and develop pitchers like Gausman and Britton?(Not a new thread. Bumped)

[OFFNY]

o

Also, Tillman.

We didn't draft him, but we played a big part in developing him after we acquired him in the Erik Bedard trade.

When he was with the Mariners' organization, the highest level that Tillman pitched at was Advanced-A, and he had one bad season there (20 starts, a 5.26 ERA, and a 1,510 WHIP.)

When Tillman first came here in 2008, he was one of the 4 "AA Boys" (Bergesen, Berken, Tillman, and Hernandez), that anchored an excellent staff at AA-Bowie. Between the 4 of them, they racked up 48 wins and 5 complete games with 3 shutouts in the 5-month season that year.

2008 AA-BAYSOX STATS:O http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=e02cc057

[Frobby]

Like many things in baseball and life, the answers are never simple. Mike Griffin has been a pitching coach at Bowie or Borfolk since at least 2008. Every prospect we've had has been under his direction for some period of time. All the pitchers seem to like him, and neither Buck nor Duquette has made any move to oust him. So is he good at developing young pitchers, or not? Is he just babysitting for Rick Peterson? It's a matter of opinion unless you can observe first hand to actually have some evidence other than statistical results. My personal opinion is that Griffin is and was a very good coach. AA coach Blaine Beatty has been here 8 years. Ditto Frederick coach Keenie Steenstra. It's hard for me to say the whole world changed in 2010 or 2011. But I'm sure some things did change.

[paulcoates]

Someone had to ask.

Can't wait for Bundy to join the party.

Why can't they? They did develop them

[MrOrange82]

o

Also, Tillman.

We didn't draft him, but we played a big part in developing him after we acquired him in the Erik Bedard trade.

When he was with the Mariners' organization, the highest level that Tillman pitched at was Advanced-A, and he had one bad season there (20 starts, a 5.26 ERA, and a 1,510 WHIP.)

When Tillman first came here in 2008, he was one of the 4 "AA Boys" (Bergesen, Berken, Tillman, and Hernandez), that anchored an excellent staff at AA-Bowie. Between the 4 of them, they racked up 48 wins and 5 complete games with 3 shutouts in the 5-month season that year.

2008 AA-BAYSOX STATS:O http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=e02cc057

Tillman wasn't on my list because he doesn't crack the top 100 in fWAR since 2007 (he has 4.5 total right now). Furthermore, the Tillman debate is another can of worms I didn't really want to get into (i.e., IMO, he's been a "good" pitcher less than 50% of the innings he's thrown for the Orioles, and whether he'll be considered a success story in the long run is still up for debate).

Regardless, the list that I put up earlier also doesn't include...a ton of recent, highly prized pitchers (e.g., basically the entire A's starting rotation, along with guys like Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha for the Cardinals). So we can "give" Tillman to the Orioles if you insist, but that's only going to add what I suspect is a substantially larger number of more recent successes to other teams.

[MrOrange82]

Although I appreciate MrOrange82's effort, something's wrong with his method if the Orioles and Cardinals are both at the same end of the scale and the Braves are only one notch higher.

The Braves and Cardinals have a bunch of young guys right now who could prove to be great. As I just posted in response to OFFNY, using fWAR like this naturally excludes younger, more recent "products" from various systems.

If someone else wants to fill in the gaps to show what other teams have produced over the last 2-3 years and compare those figures to those of the Orioles, I'd be all for it, but...suffice it to say that my first post took some time. Not entirely eager to dig through a more subjective list of players (i.e., whether a young/recent player is a success story right now, in many cases, might be up for more stringent debate than guys who've accumulated significant fWAR already). Not saying it wouldn't be an interesting addition, just saying.

[Camden_yardbird]

Because they don't.

I looked through the top 100 pitchers in terms of fWAR accumulated since 2007, and then I looked at which teams developed them. In some cases, that wasn't easy to define (e.g., Gio Gonzalez was traded a couple of times before breaking into the majors with the A's). In such cases, I credited the team that had a particular player in the minors for the longest amount of time. Then I just tallied up the number of pitchers every ML organization had "produced" who appeared among the top 100 fWAR producers since 2007, excluding international FA signees like Darvish and Koji.

Here are the teams, and their totals, presented in the order of their first appearances within the top 100 (i.e., the Tigers appear first because Verlander is #1 in pitching fWAR since 2007):

Tigers - 3

Mariners - 6

Indians - 4

Jays - 3

Royals - 2

Red Sox - 7

A's - 3

Phillies - 3

Dodgers - 4

Cardinals - 1

Angels - 4

Giants - 4

Rays - 5

White sox - 4

Marlins - 6

Rockies - 4

Padres - 2

Yankees - 4

Expos/Nationals - 3

Astros - 2

Twins - 5

Rangers - 6

Brewers

Reds - 2

Cubs - 2

Diamondbacks - 2

Orioles - 1 (ERIK BEDARD, 67th in fWAR)

Mets - 2

Braves - 2

Pirates - 3

The Orioles are one of two teams in MLB to only produce one pitcher who stands in the top 100 in fWAR since 2007 (and before you object to "top 100" status as a benchmark, a player only needs 9.5 fWAR over that span to crack the top 100). And to make matters worse, the Red Sox (7), Rays (5), Yankees (4), and Jays (3) have all produced more (and more productive) pitchers on the list than the Orioles. Erik Bedard...just amazing.

So...why can't the O's produce good pitchers? Why are Gausman, Bundy, and (to a lesser degree, given his abject failure as a starter) Britton now the saviors of the organization? Because the Orioles don't develop good pitchers very often...and much, much less often than their peers. Now here's hoping you didn't jinx Gausman/Britton by declaring them successes already...

I disregard this data as indicative of anything the second it indicates that the cardinals are anywhere near as bad as the orioles at developing talent. Besides SF and ATL I cant think of any team better in recent years and getting good results from in house pitchers.

[MrOrange82]

I disregard this data as indicative of anything the second it indicates that the cardinals are anywhere near as bad as the orioles at developing talent. Besides SF and ATL I cant think of any team better in recent years and getting good results from in house pitchers.

Do you think I was making up fWAR totals out of thin air? Did a leprechaun tell me to exclude players from the top 100 just because they were developed by the Cardinals? Have you done any research on your own? No? Then I have a suggestion for you: [redacted for fear of infractions].

You should read the above two posts (because of COURSE fWAR totals from 2007 to the present are going to exclude some very good pitchers who...just haven't been around that long). Jaime Garcia didn't make the cut (just barely out of the top 100). Shelby Miller and Wacha haven't been around long enough. Carpenter was a Jays product. Etc., etc. Would adding those players to the total make you feel better? OK, then you can add all the other names to all the other teams that "should" be added. Either way, you won't be adding many Orioles.

And that's the point.

[OFFNY]

Tillman wasn't on my list because he doesn't crack the top 100 in fWAR since 2007 (he has 4.5 total right now). Furthermore, the Tillman debate is another can of worms I didn't really want to get into (i.e., IMO, he's been a "good" pitcher less than 50% of the innings he's thrown for the Orioles, and whether he'll be considered a success story in the long run is still up for debate).

Regardless, the list that I put up earlier also doesn't include...a ton of recent, highly prized pitchers (e.g., basically the entire A's starting rotation, along with guys like Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha for the Cardinals). So we can "give" Tillman to the Orioles if you insist, but that's only going to add what I suspect is a substantially larger number of more recent successes to other teams.

I should have made it clear that I wasn't actually trying to make the argument that Tillman necessarily belonged on your list, just that he was a young pitcher that we were able to develop from the upper levels of the minors to the majors.

My bad.

[MrOrange82]

I should have made it clear that I wasn't actually trying to make the argument that Tillman necessarily belonged on your list, just that he was a young pitcher that we were able to develop from the upper levels of the minors to the majors.

My bad.

Not a problem. I'm tempted to expand the list to 200-300, just to see how the numbers subdivide (Tillman's in the low-200's right now in terms of fWAR), but I think weams has it right. The O's haven't done a good job of developing pitchers. It remains to be seen whether that's changed with guys like Gausman and Bundy. Five years from now, we could be singing a completely different tune...or stewing in spilled milk. Time will tell.

[weams]

Not a problem. I'm tempted to expand the list to 200-300, just to see how the numbers subdivide (Tillman's in the low-200's right now in terms of fWAR), but I think weams has it right. The O's haven't done a good job of developing pitchers. It remains to be seen whether that's changed with guys like Gausman and Bundy. Five years from now, we could be singing a completely different tune...or stewing in spilled milk. Time will tell.

Yeah, I was sorry my typo muddied the waters. This is a good effort. It truly is an indictment of the dark ages of Baltimore.

[MrOrange82]

So, I really appreciate you putting in this effort, but I have a few questions and a request...

Warning: massive response ahead.

I picked 9.5 fWAR just because that's where the top 100 or so ended when I looked at all years combined (i.e., 2007-2014). So, instead of just producing a raw list, I went through every year, as you suggested, to look at individual seasons that were worth 2.0 fWAR or more from 2007 through 2013. This will give you a large amount of fairly raw data because, well, it's a gigantic amount of data.

I tossed out most of the international, straight-to-the-majors types, but I left in a couple (e.g., Chapman) who, IIRC, spent some time in the minors before getting the ML call. Also, some teams benefited from aging vets (e.g., Mariano Rivera...who just wouldn't ever stop throwing, and the Nationals for Expos products), but I left those in, too. It's fair to contest those inclusions, but hey...I gve the Orioles Schilling and Mussina. Further, if you think about it, there was nothing preventing the O's (or any other team, really) from producing one or more long-tenured, productive players with multiple 2.0+ fWAR seasons. It just...hasn't happened in a looong time. Also, some players were tough calls (e.g., Gio Gonzalez, who spent significant MiL time with both CHI and PHI...I gave him to CHI), but nobody was taken away from the Orioles due to MiL hair splitting.

Anyway, here's the list of the number of 2.0 fWAR (or greater) seasons that players "produced" by each team have put up in 2007-2013, followed by the total number those seasons for each organization over that period. Brace yourself:

2007:

TOR - 2 (McGowan, Halladay)

BAL - 4 (Maine, Schilling, Mussina, Bedard)

NYY - 2 (Rivera, Pettitte)

BOS - 2 (Suppan, Papelbon)

TBR - 2 (Sonnanstine, Shields)

KCR - 2 (Soria, Greinke)

DET - 3 (Cordero, Bonderman, Verlander)

CLE - 5 (Westbrook, Guthrie, Betancourt, R. Hernandez, Sabathia)

CHS - 3 (Jenks, Buehrle, Garland)

MIN - 4 (Lohse, Baker, Silva, Santana)

OAK - 3 (Hudson, Harang, Blanton)

LAA - 5 (FRod, Washburn, Weaver, Escobar, Lackey)

SEA - 4 (Putz, Lowe, King Felix, Meche)

TEX - 2 (D. Davis, C. Young)

HOU - 2 (W. Rodriguez, Oswalt)

WAS - 1 (Vazquez)

ATL - 2 (Millwood, Smoltz)

MIA - 3 (Burnett, Penny, Beckett)

PHI - 1 (Hamels)

NYM - 4 (Bryd, Bell, Bannister, Kazmir)

MIL - 2 (Sheets, Gallardo)

STL - 3 (Morris, Wainwright, Haren)

CIN - 1 (Belisle)

PIT - 6 (O. Perez, Batista, Wakefield, Gorzelany, Arroyo, Snell)

CHC - 4 (Mitre, Zambrano, Hill, Lilly)

SFG - 3 (Nathan, Lincecum, Cain)

LAD - 0

COL - 2 (Cook, Francis)

SDG - 1 (Peavy)

ARI - 1 (Webb)

2008:

TOR - 3 (McGowan, Litsch, Halladay)

BAL - 1 (Mussina)

NYY - 3 (Chamberlain, Rivera, Pettitte)

BOS - 2 (Papelbon, Lester)

TBR - 2 (Sonnanstine, Shields)

KCR - 0

DET - 1 (Verlander)

CLE - 3 (Guthrie, Lee, Sabathia)

CHS - 1 (Buehrle)

MIN - 7 (Balfour, Blackburn, Lohse, Slowey, Garza, Baker, Santana)

OAK - 2 (Hudson, Harden)

LAA - 3 (Saunders, Weaver, E. Santana)

SEA - 5 (Campillo, Fuentes, King Felix, Lowe, Meche)

TEX - 3 (D.Davis, Duchscherer, Danks)

HOU - 2 (Lidge, Oswalt)

WAS - 2 (R. Johnson, Vazquez)

ATL - 2 (Millwood, Jurrjens)

MIA - 4 (Nolasco, Dempster, Beckett, Burnett)

PHI - 3 (Wolf, Floyd, Hamels)

NYM - 2 (Kazmir, Pelfrey)

MIL - 3 (de la Rosa, Eveland, Sheets)

STL - 2 (Wainwright, Haren)

CIN - 1 (Volquez)

PIT - 2 (Wakefield, Arroyo)

CHC - 4 (Wood, Moyer, Zambrano, Lilly)

SFG - 3 (Nathan, Cain, Lincecum)

LAD - 3 (Broxton, Kuo, Billingsley)

COL - 3 (R. Ramirez, Jimenez, Cook)

SDG - 1 (Peavy)

ARI - 1 (Webb)

2009:

TOR - 3 (Romero, Carpenter, Halladay)

BAL - 1 (Bergesen)

NYY - 3 (Rivera, Hughes, Pettitte)

BOS - 3 (Papelbon, Pavano, Lester)

TBR - 3 (Niemann, Shields, Hammel)

KCR - 1 (Greinke)

DET - 2 (Scherzer, Verlander)

CLE - 2 (Sabathia, Lee)

CHS - 2 (Garland, Buehrle)

MIN - 3 (Blackburn, Garza, Baker)

OAK - 6 (Blanton, Zito, Harang, Bailey, Braden, Anderson)

LAA - 3 (Washburn, Lackey Weaver)

SEA - 4 (Lowe, Thornton, Piniero, King Felix)

TEX - 3 (Hunter, Danks, Feldman)

HOU - 2 (Oswalt, W. Rodriguez)

WAS - 1 (Vazquez)

ATL - 4 (Hanson, Millwood, Marquis, Jurrjens)

MIA - 6 (Penny, Burnett, Dempster, Nolasco, Beckett, J. Johnson)

PHI - 3 (Wolf, Hamels, Floyd)

NYM - 2 (Kazmir, Bannister)

MIL - 2 (Gallardo, de la Rosa)

STL - 2 (Wainwright, Haren)

CIN - 0

PIT - 3 (Duke, Wakefield, Maholm)

CHC - 4 (Wuertz, Wells, Zambrano, Lilly)

SFG - 5 (Nathan, Correia, B. Wilson, Cain, Lincecum)

LAD - 4 (Broxton, Billingsley, Jackson, Kershaw)

COL - 1 (Jimenez)

SDG - 1 (Peavy)

ARI - 1 (Padilla)

2010:

TOR - 5 (Cecil, Braden, Marcum, Romero, Halladay)

BAL - 1 (Matusz)

NYY - 3 (Pettitte, Kennedy, Hughes)

BOS - 4 (Masterson, Pavano, Buchholz, Lester)

TBR - 2 (Hammel, Price)

KCR - 1 (Greinke)

DET - 2 (Scherzer, Verlander)

CLE - 5 (Betancourt, Guthrie, R. Hernandez, Lee, Sabathia)

CHS - 3 (D. Hudson, G. Gonzalez, Buehrle)

MIN - 4 (Slowey, Baker, Santana, Liriano)

OAK - 3 (Hudson, Anderson, Braden)

LAA - 2 (Lackey, Weaver)

SEA - 5 (Thornton, Lowe, Fister, Morrow, King Felix)

TEX - 4 (Feliz, Dickey, Wilson, Lewis)

HOU - 3 (Wagner, W. Rodriguez, Oswalt)

WAS - 1 (Strasburg)

ATL - 1 (Hanson)

MIA - 6 (Nolasco, Vargas, Dempster, L. Hernandez, A. Sanchez, J. Johnson)

PHI - 3 (Hamels, Myer, Floyd)

NYM - 2 (Bell, Pelfrey)

MIL - 1 (Gallardo)

STL - 3 (Garcia, Haren, Wainwright)

CIN - 3 (Belisle, T. Wood, Cueto)

PIT - 1 (Gorzelanny)

CHC - 4 (Zambrano, Lilly, Marmol, Wells)

SFG - 4 (Sanchez, B. Wilson, Cain, Lincecum)

LAD - 4 (Kuo, Jackson, Billingsley, Kershaw)

COL - 2 (Chacin, Jimenez)

SDG - 1 (Latos)

ARI - 0

2011:

TOR - 4 (Romero, Marcum, Carpenter, Halladay)

BAL - 2 (Bedard, Britton)

NYY - 4 (Nova, Rivera, Robertson, Kennedy)

BOS - 4 (Pavano, Papelbon, Lester, Masterson)

TBR - 2 (Price, Shields)

KCR - 2 (Hochevar, Greinke)

DET - 3 (Porcello, Scherzer, Verlander)

CLE - 4 (Guthrie, Colon, Lee, Sabathia)

CHS - 4 (G. Gonzalez, Buehrle, McCarthy, Hudson)

MIN - 3 (Lohse, Baker, Garza)

OAK - 2 (Cahill, Hudson)

LAA - 2 (E. Santana, Weaver)

SEA - 6 (Lowe, F. Garcia, Pineda, Morrow, King Felix, Fister)

TEX - 6 (Dickey, Lewis, Danks, Holland, Ogando, Wilson)

HOU - 2 (Paulino, Oswalt)

WAS - 1 (Vazquez, Zimmerman)

ATL - 3 (Beachy, Kimbrel, Harrison)

MIA - 5 (Vargas, Dempster, Nolasco, A. Sanchez, Beckett)

PHI - 3 (Worley, Floyd, Hamels)

NYM - 2 (Niese, Humber)

MIL - 1 (Gallardo)

STL - 2 (Garcia, Haren)

CIN - 1 (Cueto)

PIT - 0

CHC - 1 (Marshall)

SFG - 4 (Romo, Lincecum, Bumgarner, Cain)

LAD - 2 (Jackson, Kershaw)

COL - 3 (Francis, Chacin, Jimenez)

SDG - 3 (Leubke, Peavy, Latos)

ARI - 1 (Collmenter)

2012:

TOR - 1 (Halladay)

BAL - 1 (D. Hernandez)

NYY - 2 (Hughes, Kennedy)

BOS - 1 (Lester)

TBR - 6 (McGee, Cobb, Moore, Hammel, Shields, Price)

KCR - 2 (G. Holland, Greinke)

DET - 4 (Rodney, Porcello, Scherzer, Verlander)

CLE - 4 (Westbrook, Colon, Sabathia, Lee)

CHS - 3 (Harrell, Sale, G. Gonzalez)

MIN - 1 (Lohse)

OAK - 3 (Hudson, Blanton, Cahill)

LAA - 2 (Saunders, Weaver)

SEA - 3 (Morrow, Fister, King Felix)

TEX - 4 (Wilson, Lewis, Feldman, Dickey)

HOU - 1 (W. Rodriguez)

WAS - 4 (Milone, Estrada, Zimmerman, Strasburg)

ATL - 6 (Chen, Millwood, Diamond, Kimbrel, Medlen, Harrison)

MIA - 6 (Beckett, Nolasco, Burnett, Dempster, J. Johnson, A. Sanchez)

PHI - 1 (Hamels)

NYM - 1 (Niese)

MIL - 2 (Gallardo, Fiers)

STL - 3 (Garcia, Lynn, Wainwright)

CIN - 3 (Chapman, H. Bailey, Cueto)

PIT - 1 (Maholm)

CHC - 1 (Samardzija)

SFG - 3 (Vogelsong, Bumgarner, Cain)

LAD - 3 (Jackson, Billingsley, Kershaw)

COL - 0

SDG - 2 (Latos, Peavy)

ARI - 3 (Capuano, Parker, Miley)

2013:

TOR - 0

BAL - 1 (Tillman)

NYY - 3 (Melancon, Nova, Pettitte)

BOS - 4 (Doubront, Buchholz, Masterson, Lester)

TBR - 3 (Cobb, Price, Shields)

KCR - 2 (Greinke, G. Holland)

DET - 3 (Porcello, Scherzer, Verlander)

CLE - 3 (Sabathia, Colon, Lee)

CHS - 5 (N. Jones, Buehrle, G. Gonzalez, Quintana, Sale)

MIN - 2 (Garza, Liriano)

OAK - 0

LAA - 4 (Chatwood, Weaver, E. Santana, Lackey)

SEA - 2 (Fister, King Felix)

TEX - 4 (Dickey, Feldman, Wilson, Holland)

HOU - 1 (Norris)

WAS - 2 (Strasburg, Zimmerman)

ATL - 3 (Teheran, Medlen, Minor)

MIA - 4 (Nolasco, Burnett, J. Fernandez, A. Sanchez)

PHI - 1 (Hamels)

NYM - 3 (Pelfrey, Kazmir, Harvey)

MIL - 1 (de la Rosa)

STL - 4 (S. Miller, Rosenthal, Lynn, Wainwright)

CIN - 2 (T. Wood, H. Bailey)

PIT - 1 (Cole)

CHC - 2 (Cashner, Samardzija)

SFG - 2 (Nathan, Bumgarner)

LAD - 5 (Jackson, Jansen, Stults, Ryu, Kershaw)

COL - 3 (Nicasio, Jimenez, Chacin)

SDG - 3 (Peavy, Kluber, Latos)

ARI - 2 (Miley, Corbin)

TOTAL:

MIA - 34

SEA - 29

TEX - 26

CLE - 25

SFG - 24

MIN - 24

ATL - 21

CHS - 21

LAD - 21

LAA - 21

NYY - 20

BOS - 20

TBR - 20

OAK - 19

STL - 19

TOR - 18

DET - 18

CHC - 20

NYM - 16

PHI - 15

COL - 14

PIT - 14

HOU - 13

SDG - 12

MIL - 12

WAS - 12

BAL - 11

CIN - 11

KCR - 10

ARI - 9

[MrOrange82]

Yeah, I was sorry my typo muddied the waters. This is a good effort. It truly is an indictment of the dark ages of Baltimore.

The Dark Ages is a good description. A long period without any innovation or advancement. Honestly, I didn't even make an effort to add together the fWAR earned by each team over the time periods discussed above. I think that'd make the Orioles' output of the not-too-distant past all the more striking when compared to the rest of baseball.

[Bazooka Jones]

I think that change started to take effect. Yep. The difference is already clearer.

[Guest]

Someone had to ask.

Can't wait for Bundy to join the party.

Britton was drafted to be a starter so him as a closer is somewhat of a fail. Gausman has talent unlike the others we have tried.

[weams]

Britton was drafted to be a starter so him as a closer is somewhat of a fail. Gausman has talent unlike the others we have tried.

Whhhhhaaaatttt! You gots to be kidding. You draft a pitcher in anything other than the top of the first round and you PRAY he gets to the MLB. As anything. TINSTAAPP