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His OPS has dropped to .898, yes, but his overall AAA performance this year still equates to a 139 wRC+. 20-year-olds who can be 40% better than the field at AAA are a pretty damn good demographic to bet on. Since 2006, I can locate a total of 8 players who’ve done that in a season with more than 100 PAs: Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Ronald Acuna, Jr. Riley Greene Jay Bruce Wander Franco Freddie Freeman Fernando Martinez Jackson Holliday Fernando was juicing, and god only knows what Wander was doing. Of the guys that weren’t into illegal stuff, Jay Bruce is likely the disappointment of the group, proving to be “just” a 3-time All-Star. Riley Greene still has a bit to go in terms of crafting a resume, but a 128 wRC+ at 23 suggests he’s got the goods. It appears to be basically impossible to succeed to that extent at that level of baseball at that young an age without being preternaturally, supremely gifted. Your points about the nature of his success — very OBP/BB heavy — are interesting and will bear monitoring. I would agree that none of those other guys was carrying a 22% BB rate, so that does set him apart a bit. But the kid is still hitting .270 with an ISO right around .200, so it’s not like he’s just Eddie Gaedel up there, hoping they can’t throw three pitches into his tiny strike zone. Plus, this is a kid with 1:1 tools and elite pedigree/work ethic — I think it’s pretty reasonable to imagine more pop will develop between drinking age and car rental age. It’s tough for me to imagine a pitcher I would trade him for. That would have the talent and the years of control and the reasonably expected durability that I’d need in order to push that button. Maybe Skenes straight up? Otherwise, I can’t really think of anyone. With the specter of TJS hanging over every arm at the moment, pitchers who are even 2-3 years from FA are one twinge away from giving you almost nothing in return. -
By Aristotelian · Posted
Since that rough patch in early May he has been really good, just the one hiccup vs TOR. Only one back to back during that period. 2.59 ERA with 12.6 K/9 to 3.7 BB/9 (effectively identical K's/B's to last year). Can't complain about the overall performance, it's just the nature of the beast that the occasional meltdowns are costly. -
By OriolesMagic83 · Posted
It makes as much sense as a bunch of Mullins threads in the minor leagues sections because some posters think he should be there. -
By CaptainRedbeard · Posted
The issues that Cowser has at the major league level with hitting lefties and offspeed are the same issues he had in the minors. Sure, he’s going to continue to adjust, and like I said he’s a young player so they should keep giving him opportunities, especially while they don’t have a righty CF they like. But we can’t pretend like the flaws in Cowser’s game are a new thing that we can expect him to correct for. Maybe he can make some improvements on offspeed, but he’s very likely to still do poorly on those. I think he has a better chance of improving against lefties because of the Gunnar/Holliday thing of just not seeing many good lefties in the minors, but lefty sliders/sweepers are killer on him the same way righty changeup/splitters are. The flip side is he’s also capable of doing what he did last night - doing damage on righty fastballs, even from a guys who have a really good one. Cowser’s defensive metrics right now are really elite and not something you should pro-rate out. Even if he is an elite defender, there should be some regression. Steamer and ZiPS project him for 1.2 and 1.4 WAR in about a half season. I think it’s fair to expect him to be around a 2.5-3 WAR player going forward, even though he should finish higher than that this year on the strength of the the defensive numbers he’s already banked (and could definitely get to 4, which would be a terrific rookie season). The projections have him at about a 112 wRC+. So, a good player. But he currently has a 12th percentile whiff rate. Even with improvements there he’s still going to be flawed. -
2 blowups and runs in 2 other outings. 4 of 11 outings giving up runs PLUS he’s not on the 40 man. As for Fuji, we got him on July 19. The prior 30 days he had a 2.77 ERA. In 11 innings he had 0 walks and 13 K’s. So as much as they might have loved his pitch shapes they were hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. -
SG would tell you so. I don’t think either one is perfect, but when they’re out of line I generally assume the truth is in between. The biggest difference between them is the fielding metrics they use. Not the only difference. -
Hyde gets a lot of flack (me included) for his lineup choices, but I have to say over the last few weeks I feel like he is doing a great job of mixing things up and keeping guys fresh. It helps when most of your options are very good options.
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