MLBTradeRumors projects Cruz at 4/70

[25 Nuggets]

Market is determined by supply and demand. You can't just quote a price. Who do you think is willing to pay that? And you need at least two; smart teams don't bid against themselves.

Thing is, not every team is smart and teams have bid against themselves in the past -- case in point, Texas with A-Rod. You'd think they would learn by now but the agents continue to find ways to hoodwink them.

[wildcard]

Wait.

Someone is going to be in the same position that Cruz was last year come February. Could be Nelson. Could be someone else. Wait it out and see who the bargain is this year.

[theobird]

No, that isn't what "signing a guy on the wrong side of 35" means. It obviously implies that he is older than 35 at the time you sign him. "Signing a guy through the wrong side of 35" would carry the meaning that you are inferring.

You may consider this a semantic argument but it caused me to think when I read it, "wait Nelson is 35?" and then look it up to make sure.

Lol. You would be signing him for his age 35,36,37 and 38 year old seasons. That is the wrong side of 35. Now if you could make that his age 34, 33, 32 and 31 year old seasons, you would be correct. Semantics is correct.

[weams]

Wait.

Someone is going to be in the same position that Cruz was last year come February. Could be Nelson. Could be someone else. Wait it out and see who the bargain is this year.

Nelson wanted 5/65 last year. He took 8.

[eddie83]

Granderson to me is a foolish comp. Cruz is an AL only player at this point. He was a DH for 90 games. Considering some teams already have that spot filled his maket isn't as large as an OF that in theory could play on any of 30 teams. Of course he could still get a huge deal, only takes one team.

[DrungoHazewood]

Lock him up for 4 years, that's not all that long a contract. He'll be in his late 30's, but we are not asking him to play shortstop or CF, just DH, hit the ball. He looks to be in great shape, he'll be able to hit when he's Ortiz' age. Plus I think over the years he'll help make Schoop and AJ and Davis better hitters. We've all been screaming for a #4 hitter for years, we finally have one, let's keep him.

Most players, including DHs, are out of baseball by their late 30s. He may be in great shape compared to an average 34-year-old American, but compared to other MLBers he's not fast, he plays poor defense, and he doesn't exactly look svelte.

I for one, would love to have him produce at or near his 2014 season for 3-4 years. Especially competing in our division we need a solid 4th and he has fit the mold perfectly this past season. I think 4/$60 would get it done.

I would love to have his 2014 performance for the next 3-4 years. But most Hall of Famers don't produce at that level at Cruz's age. I could probably count the number of 5-win seasons at age 36 on my hands.

Granderson to me is a foolish comp. Cruz is an AL only player at this point. He was a DH for 90 games. Considering some teams already have that spot filled his maket isn't as large as an OF that in theory could play on any of 30 teams. Of course he could still get a huge deal, only takes one team.

I think Granderson is a foolish comp for anyone advocating the O's sign Cruz to a similar contract. At age 33 Granderson posted a 1-win season worth a little over $5M in the first year of a 4/60 contract. That's looking like a very, very poor deal less than one year in.

[eddie83]

Most players, including DHs, are out of baseball by their late 30s. He may be in great shape compared to an average 34-year-old American, but compared to other MLBers he's not fast, he plays poor defense, and he doesn't exactly look svelte.

I would love to have his 2014 performance for the next 3-4 years. But most Hall of Famers don't produce at that level at Cruz's age. I could probably count the number of 5-win seasons at age 36 on my hands.

I think Granderson is a foolish comp for anyone advocating the O's sign Cruz to a similar contract. At age 33 Granderson posted a 1-win season worth a little over $5M in the first year of a 4/60 contract. That's looking like a very, very poor deal less than one year in.

Mets are hoping Kevin Long can help him, moving fences in also. I think they signed him just so they did something.

I still think Cruz doesn't get more than 3 years.

[El Gordo]

2/32 M with an option vesting or club. That's it. He isn't getting 4/70 from SEA or TEX IMO.

[jamalshw]

I believe the way he was used (a lot of DH, and more as the season went on) helped keep him both healthy and fresh. Health has been a big issue with him.

2014 was obviously a career year, he has never had 40 HR before or 100 RBI (though some of that is health related, too). I don't think you every see his 2014 numbers again, but I think he could put up 30 HRs and 90-100 RBI (if healthy) for another couple of years, beyond that becomes iffy.

I like Cruz, but 4 years at 17.5M AAV is a bit too much for me. Knock off a year and drop the AAV a million or so and I'll gladly sign up to that (budget allowing). 3/$50M sounds good.

[Number5]

Nelson wanted 5/65 last year. He took 8.

And MLBTR predicted a big payday for Cruz last year, as I recall. Their doing so again doesn't really surprise me. I have searched, but could not find their prediction of what he would sign for last year, but I seem to recall that it was substantial. I did find that they had him as their 17th ranked free agent last year.

[Loophole]

He'll be healthy for about one and a half years out of that potential contract. Just say no.

[jamalshw]

And MLBTR predicted a big payday for Cruz last year, as I recall. Their doing so again doesn't really surprise me. I have searched, but could not find their prediction of what he would sign for last year, but I seem to recall that it was substantial. I did find that they had him as their 17th ranked free agent last year.

MLB Trade Rumors predicted 3/$39M last year for him in their Free Agent Profile. Obviously they were off, but I think they'll be closer this time around, but I'm still hoping 3 years gets it done. If 3 does, he could stay, otherwise he's gone.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/free-agent-profile-nelson-cruz.html

[Loophole]

And MLBTR predicted a big payday for Cruz last year, as I recall. Their doing so again doesn't really surprise me. I have searched, but could not find their prediction of what he would sign for last year, but I seem to recall that it was substantial. I did find that they had him as their 17th ranked free agent last year.

It would be pretty weird of them to randomly pick a guy to get stuck in QO hell and project him to get a 1/$8m deal. He probably would've made around their projection if he didn't hold out.

[sportsfan8703]

The best place for Cruz is to play in OPACY. The short power allies help his HR total. Much like they did for Davis in 13.

http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=2434&position=OF&type=battedball&pid2=2434&ss1=2012&se1=2013&ss2=2014&se2=2014&cht1=battedball&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

He pretty much had the same number of gap HR's last year as he did in 12-13 combined. 4/60 sounds good to me. Buck managed to keep him healthy. If he goes somewhere with a huge deal, he's going to have a ton of expectations and the steroid talk will pop up. I think we'll make the deal close enough to others to sign him and just hope that Cruz wants to stay in Baltimore.

[Number5]

It would be pretty weird of them to randomly pick a guy to get stuck in QO hell and project him to get a 1/$8m deal. He probably would've made around their projection if he didn't hold out.

Well, it is for certain that he could have made $14.1 million in 2014.