Chris Davis vs Nelson Cruz

[Frobby]

I expect Davis to continue to produce at his 3 year average which is 254 335 523 with 37 hrs and 98 rbis. Maybe a little more, maybe a little less. For that, 11 million is a big time bargain.

But why do you expect it? A three year average is not that meaningful to me when the guy has been all over the map the last three years. For whatever it's worth, Steamer projects Davis at .242/.326/.478, 30 HR and 79 RBI next year, and 2.4 fWAR. If that comes true he's probably worthwhile to keep, but not by a wide margin.

[Dark Helmet]

But why do you expect it? A three year average is not that meaningful to me when the guy has been all over the map the last three years. For whatever it's worth, Steamer projects Davis at .242/.326/.478, 30 HR and 79 RBI next year, and 2.4 fWAR. If that comes true he's probably worthwhile to keep, but not by a wide margin.

Davis is the only LH hitter we have capable of 30 HR. Keeping him is a no brainer for me. Especially just for one year. Hopefully he can put up something like .265/.335/.475 with 30-35 HR. Atleast to justify a QO offer and the likelihood he'd turn it down.

[brianod]

To all those slamming me about ignoring variance, I say this. A 3 year average is much more meaningful than assuming Davis off year last year is what we should expect. Likewise, Cruz was absolutely amazing first half of last year. Does anyone want to pay him big money if we focus on his second half production? Assuming Cruz is going to produce like last year for another year or two or three is fools gold imo. Cruz's numbers from last year were absolutely skewed by a torrid first half. I suspect Cruz will produce around his three year average next year and decline after that. Davis is more of a question mark but obviously has much more upside. Finally, I don't care what Davis did in Texas, that has become irrelevant. What counts is what he has done playing full time at OPCY.

[Dark Helmet]

To all those slamming me about ignoring variance, I say this. A 3 year average is much more meaningful than assuming Davis off year last year is what we should expect. Likewise, Cruz was absolutely amazing first half of last year. Does anyone want to pay him big money if we focus on his second half production? Assuming Cruz is going to produce like last year for another year or two or three is fools gold imo. Cruz's numbers from last year were absolutely skewed by a torrid first half. I suspect Cruz will produce around his three year average next year and decline after that. Davis is more of a question mark but obviously has much more upside. Finally, I don't care what Davis did in Texas, that has become irrelevant. What counts is what he has done playing full time at OPCY.

I think the 2012 Davis is close to what he is. Which comes out to around his 3 year average. SoI don't think your out of line in your logic.

[brianod]

I think the 2012 Davis is close to what he is. Which comes out to around his 3 year average. SoI don't think your out of line in your logic.

Ya, just because I don't want to cut Davis loose doesn't mean I expect another 2013. I would further argue that this year's production is probably worth 11 million but the three year average is worth much more. Fans are fickle and frankly, it's annoying to hear people recommending cutting him. If he produces like 2012 next year, he'll be worth a ton of money in FA. If he produces like this year, he'll probably get a Markakis like contract and if he comes close to 2013, well, I'm sure we won't be able to afford him.

[Dark Helmet]

Ya, just because I don't want to cut Davis loose doesn't mean I expect another 2013. I would further argue that this year's production is probably worth 11 million but the three year average is worth much more. Fans are fickle and frankly, it's annoying to hear people recommending cutting him. If he produces like 2012 next year, he'll be worth a ton of money in FA. If he produces like this year, he'll probably get a Markakis like contract and if he comes close to 2013, well, I'm sure we won't be able to afford him.

I agree. He's are only LH power threag. As bad as he was he still hit close to 30 HR and drove in 72. He's worth a 1/11m deal. And frankly, id feel more comfortable on defense with Eavis at 1B. Pearce scared me at times.

[wildcard]

To me its seems the league adjusted to Davis in 2014 and he had trouble adjusting back.

The pitchers started throwing him inside strikes so he couldn't extend his hands. And many more teams shifted defensively on him. That made it hard to get hits by hitting to the right side.

He still had occasional power. 26 homers and 72 RBI in 450 at bats. Which is not bad at all. But his averages suffered which frustrated the heck out of him since he was being paid to do much more.

Will he be able to adjust in 2015? I really don't know.

[brianod]

To me its seems the league adjusted to Davis in 2014 and he had trouble adjusting back.

The pitchers started throwing him inside strikes so he couldn't extend his hands. And many more teams shifted defensively on him. That made it hard to get hits by hitting to the right side.

He still had occasional power. 26 homers and 72 RBI in 450 at bats. Which is not bad at all. But his averages suffered which frustrated the heck out of him since he was being paid to do much more.

Will he be able to adjust in 2015? I really don't know.

And, how much was the adderall or lack there of contributing? Both Cruz and Davis have big question marks but Davis is 28. I'm sure he has a support system that includes doctors from both the O's and his agent. Also, baseball isn't going to just dump him because he is worth a lot of money to MLB if he can approach 2013 again no matter what team he is on. So, all I'm saying here is we need to be patient with him for the next year and see what develops. If he bombs, it will have been worth the risk imo.

[MarylandAaron]

To me its seems the league adjusted to Davis in 2014 and he had trouble adjusting back.

The pitchers started throwing him inside strikes so he couldn't extend his hands. And many more teams shifted defensively on him. That made it hard to get hits by hitting to the right side.

He still had occasional power. 26 homers and 72 RBI in 450 at bats. Which is not bad at all. But his averages suffered which frustrated the heck out of him since he was being paid to do much more.

Will he be able to adjust in 2015? I really don't know.

This is what it seemed like to me as well. Shifts . . . Pitchers pounding him inside . . . Davis has some giant holes in his swing. That said, I like his defense, and he does have upside, so I wouldn't have a problem bringing him back for 1/11. But for the long term, big money, give me Cruz. He's been consistent and doesn't really have any weaknesses at the plate.

[OriolesMagic83]

The only factor that clouds this decision for me is last year's team demonstrated ability, with the emergence of Steve Pearce, to win when Chris was injured, in one of his slumps or suspended. But losing Davis and relying on Pearce, while spending Chris' expected salary elsewhere, would present its own risks, so in the end I'm clear that Davis should be retained. I would like to think that the suspension will induce Chris to sign at or below the lower end of his predicted range in order to avoid an arbitration that would confront him with arguments about how he let down the team in September and October. But even if he doesn't, he's very likely to be worth what he's paid in 2015.

I don't think the players attend arbitration. I'm sure its their agents and lawyers. I think Davis will be all right whether he makes $10 mill next year or $12 mill.

[weams]

I don't think the players attend arbitration. I'm sure its their agents and lawyers. I think Davis will be all right whether he makes $10 mill next year or $12 mill.

The player MUST attend the hearing.

http://sportinlaw.com/2012/01/22/baseball-arbitration-what-it-is-and-how-it-works/

Each party is given an hour to present its case to a three person panel, and then they are allotted thirty minutes for a rebuttal. The player must attend the hearing, but typically has an agent or attorney there to represent him. A team executive or attorney is most commonly there to represent the team. At the hearing, each case presents why the player should be awarded the salary they have requested for the upcoming season. The panel decides to award the higher or lower yearly salary. There is no middle ground; either the team or player wins. The case is made according to the player’s contribution to the team; pertaining to their performance and leadership. Special accomplishments such as an All-Star game appearance, awarsd won, and/or postseason performance are often emphasized. The club’s record and attendance can also be brought into play. Commonly, salaries of comparable players in the same service class of the player are presented to leverage why the player deserves a similar amount. Comments from the press or references to salaries in other sports or occupations cannot be presented. Neither can team finances or previous offers presented in negotiations. The player and team are bound to the number they presented by the deadline ... The panel awards the player a one year non-guaranteed contract that adheres to the team or player’s request.

[OriolesMagic83]

I didn't know that players were present at the arbitration hearings. I can see why so few players end up going to arbitration. The O's will be saying "We didn't mean all those nasty things we said in arbitration. We think you will have an MVP type year." lol

[spiritof66]

I didn't know that players were present at the arbitration hearings. I can see why so few players end up going to arbitration. The O's will be saying "We didn't mean all those nasty things we said in arbitration. We think you will have an MVP type year." lol

The conventional wisdom is that one of the main reasons few cases go to an arbitration hearing is that the hearing requires the club to present the negatives in the player's performance, and clubs and players/agents recognize that is not healthy for the player-club relationship. What I was trying to say is that the dynamic in Davis' case might be different because the club presumably would be presenting his adderall use and suspension as well as downside arguments about his recent performance, and that may depress the amount of the settlement.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Advantage: Davis.

http://www.clarktoys.com/chdabormlbug.html

[El Gordo]

I would think Davis' and Cruz' numbers will be pretty similar next season. Close to their respective career averages.