Set up perfectly for a new G.M.?

[Can_of_corn]

If Oday pitches lights out.

If Angelos continues to allow the payroll to rise as it has been each year.

Yes' date=' I would offer it and if he takes it, they say there is no such thing as a bad one year contract.[/quote']

Lights out or not no team is going to view him as a closer.

There is no way a team is going to give up a pick and make an offer more appealing then the qualifying offer. Not for a 33 year old set-up man.

[Can_of_corn]

Nobody will want him to close. He had issues at the end of the year vs LHB again and he pitches to contact. He might get $15m over a multi year deal but not one year.

He strikes out close to a guy an inning for his career. I wouldn't say he pitches to contact.

[eddie83]

He strikes out close to a guy an inning for his career. I wouldn't say he pitches to contact.

Good point. I guess his lack of velocity just makes me look at him that way. I hope his issues with LHB at the end of the year don't continue.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Personally, and I might be wrong, but I think Oday's issues with LHB at the end of the year were due to fatigue and over use.

[Can_of_corn]

Personally' date=' and I might be wrong, but I think Oday's issues with LHB at the end of the year were due to fatigue and over use.[/quote']

And what about 2013?

[Frobby]

They are all guesses. Pick your own numbers. Your guess is a good or better than mine.

My guesses:

4) 7 m Tillman - SP2

5) 5.5m Gonzalez - SP3

6) 4.5 m Britton - RP1

7) 5.5 m Machado - 3B

9) 1.5 m Flaherty - UIF

What's the story on Arencibia? Don't we just have him on a MiL deal? Why did you have him at $3 mm? I don't see many back-up catchers making in excess of $1 mm.

[wildcard]

All the bolded ones seem high to me. It is not typical for Arb 2 guys to get double what they got in Arb 1, and I doubt Machado starts at $7 mm in Arb 1. Trout is getting $6.1 mm this year; Harper is getting $5 mm next year. Put it this way, if those guys get the salaries you've projected, that will be great news for us, because it will mean they were outstanding in 2015.

So following what you are saying then here is twice the agreed upon 2015 salary or the mid point of the arbitration numbers. Arencibia made 1.8m last year. If he is promotion to the majors at any time this year be probably make at least that this year. He may be a 5 year guy next year depending on how much time he spends in the minors. I lowered Manny's salary based on your suggestion.

How do these look?

Tillman at 8.7M

Gonzalez 6.4

Britton 6.4

Machado 5

Arencibia 3.6

Flaherty 2.4

[Frobby]

If Oday pitches lights out.

If Angelos continues to allow the payroll to rise as it has been each year.

Yes' date=' I would offer it and if he takes it, [b']they say there is no such thing as a bad one year contract[/b].

There's an exception to every rule. That would be an utter waste of $8-10 mm at least.

[Frobby]

So following what you are saying then here is twice the agreed upon 2015 salary or the mid point of the arbitration numbers. Arencibia made 1.8m last year. If he is promotion to the majors at any time this year be probably make at least that this year. He may be a 5 year guy next year depending on how much time he spends in the minors. I lowered Manny's salary based on your suggestion.

How do these look?

Tillman at 8.7M

Gonzalez 6.4

Britton 6.4

Machado 5

Arencibia 3.6

Flaherty 2.4

I think you misinterpreted what I said: "it is not typical for Arb 2 guys to get double what they got in Arb 1." It's usually more like a 40-75% raise, depending on performance. (Chris Davis was an exception after his near-MVP season.)

On Manny, the reason I said $5.5 mm is because that's what Wieters got as an Arb 1, and I don't see Manny getting less.

I'm losing you on Arencibia, unless he somehow becomes our starting catcher. He's not going to make more than $1 mm.

[wildcard]

I think you misinterpreted what I said: "it is not typical for Arb 2 guys to get double what they got in Arb 1." It's usually more like a 40-75% raise, depending on performance. (Chris Davis was an exception after his near-MVP season.)

On Manny, the reason I said $5.5 mm is because that's what Wieters got as an Arb 1, and I don't see Manny getting less.

I'm losing you on Arencibia, unless he somehow becomes our starting catcher. He's not going to make more than $1 mm.

Ok I will go for a 50% increase.

If Wieters is gone in 2016, I could he Joseph and Arencibia sharing time at catcher the way Joseph and Hundley did last year.

[wildcard]

2016 Payroll Estimate (Adjusted by Frobby)

1) 16.3m Jones - CF

2) 13m Jimenez - SP1

3) 12.5m Hardy - SS

4) 7m Tillman - SP2

5) 5.5m Machado - 3B

6) 5.5m Gonzalez - SP3

7) 4.5m Britton - RP1

8) 2.7m Arencibia - C (shared)

8) 2.4m Yoon - RP (starts in the minors)

9) 1.5m Flaherty - UIF

10) 1.5m Vladimir Guerrero (deferred compensation)

11) .53m Gausman - SP4

12) .53m McFarland - RP2

13) .52m Schoop - 2B

14) .52m Joseph - C (shared)

15) .52m Brach - RP3

16) .52m Lough - OF

17) .52m Garcia - RP4

18) .51m Bundy - SP5

19) .51m Hassan - OF/DH

20) .51m Walker - DH

21) .51m Alvarez - RF

22) .51m Wright - RP5

23) .51m T Berry - RP6

Sub Total 78.18m of earned salary

Minus 2.25m deferred from Jimenez

Minus 2m deferred from Hardy(best guess)

Total 75.93m salaries to be paid in 2016

130m-75.93 = 54.07m

It has been reported the 6.5M of Hardy's contract is deferred but no word yet on how it is distributed of the contract term.

Signing bonuses are shown in the year they are paid. Performance bonuses are not included.

Need a 1B, LF, set-up man

Last edited by wildcard; Today at 08:46 AM

[oriole]

I know very few agree and part of me is questioning my a sanity for suggesting it but I think Davis is an extension candidate as long as he doesn't have a monster season. I also think if Bundy makes big strides then Tillman could be a trade chip for some young OF or 2B is Schoop is as bad as last year. There are a lot of pitching options in FA next year.

[Bahama O's Fan]

I think if we want to extend Davis and/or Wieters, we need to do it before the season gets to far. Buy low.

[Can_of_corn]

There is no chance of buying low on Wieters, IMO. Maybe on Chris Davis but Boras is the agent for both so don't expect anything you consider a bargain.

In either case the player would have to want to stay and the O's would have to be willing to pay market value.

[Bahama O's Fan]

There is no chance of buying low on Wieters, IMO. Maybe on Chris Davis but Boras is the agent for both so don't expect anything you consider a bargain.

I would be more inclined to extending Pearce, De Aza, and those types of players to 3/15, 3/18 types of contracts. Pearce has never had any financial security before. I think the O's offered 2.4M and he wants 5.5M. He could easily lose that case. Offer him some security. Even if Pearce isn't close to what he was last year he still offers a good RH platoon bat and versatility. The upside for the O's is that he proves himself to be a full time player and they have a bargain for the next 3 years in the OF or at 1B when Davis leaves.

Totally agree. I think both of those guys would love to have a three year deal in their pocket. I do agree that Boras probably wouldn't let Matt or Chris sign a long term deal, but I would try. If I'm Matt, I would sign a one year extention as he probably isn't going to be able to get his value up high enough this year on a multi year deal. That would also give the O's the opportunity to see the progress of Ohlman and Sisco.