The 2015 OPS Projections Thread

[Frobby]

I don't know what a typical number of groundouts to the opposite side of the infield is on 141 balls in play but I suspect that 10 is not unreasonable. Also, I count three hits and twice where he reached on an error.

Just to take Nick Markakis as an example of an all-fields hitter, I counted 50 ground outs to SS or 3B out of 628 balls in play. So, that's 8%. Mind you, that is strictly ground outs. It doesn't include line outs to the SS or 3B, ground singles or any other type of batted ball to the left side.

[BohKnowsBmore]

There are very few players in the Majors that I would want attempting to steal a base down one run late in the game, especially as a pinch runner. The break-even rate on stealing second base is about 75 percent and there were 27 players last year that stole 20 bases and exceeded that rate. Of course, late in a close game teams are guarding more against the stolen base, especially with a pinch runner coming in, so a guy with an 80 percent success rate for the season probably still wouldn't have a 75 percent success rate in that situation. I probably wouldn't be comfortable sending a pinch runner in a clear stolen base situation unless his success rate was near 85 percent.

You are correct that the Orioles aren't a great baserunning team. Even though Lough is second on the Orioles in the aforementioned Fangraphs metric, he is 43rd in the Majors, though again as a counting stat the fact that he had only 197 plate appearances is a huge factor. In a full season at that rate he would be around the bottom of the top 10 (though he probably wouldn't maintain that rate as he was used extensively as a pinch-runner last season). In his 19 pinch running appearances last season he was 1-2 on stolen base attempts.

Is this really an "Even though" statement? If we are looking at the majors as a whole, an even distribution of base running talent would say that teams' second-best guy should be between #31 - 60 in the majors. In that respect, 43rd is in the top half of this second group.

[MurphDogg]

Is this really an "Even though" statement? If we are looking at the majors as a whole, an even distribution of base running talent would say that teams' second-best guy should be between #31 - 60 in the majors. In that respect, 43rd is in the top half of this second group.

He is actually #63, sorry about that, error on my part. Fangraphs system is wonky where if you modify the number of players per page from 30 to 50 and then go to the next page, the player that should be 51 is listed as 31. Hence how 43 becomes 63.

[crowmst3k!]

I'll say Schoop will crack 700.

[Beef Supreme]

I don't think you have a consensus on that.

That's fair to say: I may not have a consensus on that (re. Lough being pull-happy.

There aren't too many guys who are effective base-stealers at 85% success rate (though Jarrod Dyson would fit your criterion). That rarefied air is usually reserved for players who usually don't steal and catch the opposition off-guard.

There is a saying that goes something like this: "If you are successful stealing bases 85% of the time, you are not stealing enough and if you are successful only 65% of the time, you are stealing too much."

[MurphDogg]

That's fair to say: I may not have a consensus on that (re. Lough being pull-happy.

There aren't too many guys who are effective base-stealers at 85% success rate (though Jarrod Dyson would fit your criterion). That rarefied air is usually reserved for players who usually don't steal and catch the opposition off-guard.

There is a saying that goes something like this: "If you are successful stealing bases 85% of the time, you are not stealing enough and if you are successful only 65% of the time, you are stealing too much."

I am now really curious to know what the stolen base rate is of players who just entered the game as a pinch runner. It has to be lower than the same players' overall rates, but I am curious to see the figures.

[webbrick2010]

Lough was second on the team to Adam Jones in Fangraph's BSR which accounts for all baserunning value including stolen bases and caught stealing. And BSR is a counting stat, which is the only reason Jones beat him. Lough is our best baserunner.

Also, every team has a backup centerfielder.

Every team does not have Adam Jones, a backup CF'er on the Orioles is not necessary

and you can't take a bench player and assume his counting stats are going to go up linearly with his chances. There is a reason that he is a backup who I don't think has much of a chance of making the O's 25 man roster. I can't believe the optimism generated by 67 second half AB's. I suspect even Schoop and Davis had a good 67 AB stretch somewhere during the season.

[Can_of_corn]

That's fair to say: I may not have a consensus on that (re. Lough being pull-happy.

There aren't too many guys who are effective base-stealers at 85% success rate (though Jarrod Dyson would fit your criterion). That rarefied air is usually reserved for players who usually don't steal and catch the opposition off-guard.

There is a saying that goes something like this: "If you are successful stealing bases 85% of the time, you are not stealing enough and if you are successful only 65% of the time, you are stealing too much."

I guess Matt should have been stealing more.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I guess Matt should have been stealing more.

Wheels Wieters!

[BohKnowsBmore]

He is actually #63, sorry about that, error on my part. Fangraphs system is wonky where if you modify the number of players per page from 30 to 50 and then go to the next page, the player that should be 51 is listed as 31. Hence how 43 becomes 63.

Well then...

[El Gordo]

Back to PECOTA hates us. Here are the career ave. OPS of our most likely starters, followed by the PECOTA projection, They have only two players not regressing below career average, Schoop and Pearce:

LF DeAza .733 OPS .701

3B Manny .747 OPS .726

1B Davis .815 OPS .791

CF Jones .781 OPS .763

C Wieters .743 OPS .713

RF Pearce .768 OPS .771

SS Hardy .742 OPS .682

DH Snider .716 OPS .702

Delmon .734 OPS .711

2B Schoop .605 OPS .637

[Can_of_corn]

Back to PECOTA hates us. Here are the career ave. OPS of our most likely starters, followed by the PECOTA projection, They have only two players not regressing below career average, Schoop and Pearce:

LF DeAza .733 OPS .701

3B Manny .747 OPS .726

1B Davis .815 OPS .791

CF Jones .781 OPS .763

C Wieters .743 OPS .713

RF Pearce .768 OPS .771

SS Hardy .742 OPS .682

DH Snider .716 OPS .702

Delmon .734 OPS .711

2B Schoop .605 OPS .637

Are they projecting another league wide decrease in OPS?

[El Gordo]

Are they projecting another league wide decrease in OPS?

League wide decline or no I'd be surprised if these players didn't equal or exceed their career average:

LF DeAza .733 OPS

3B Manny .747 OPS

1B Davis .815 OPS

CF Jones .781 OPS

C Wieters .743 OPS

RF Pearce .768 OPS

DH Snider 716 OPS

DH Delmon .734 OPS

2B Schoop .605 OPS

[MurphDogg]

Are they projecting another league wide decrease in OPS?

No, they are actually projecting somewhat of a bounceback in runs scored compared to last year, though still fewer runs than 2013. Which is why I find their O's offensive projections so surprising.

[Frobby]

I am now really curious to know what the stolen base rate is of players who just entered the game as a pinch runner. It has to be lower than the same players' overall rates, but I am curious to see the figures.

I found this list of pinch running stolen base leaders since 2010: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/10/2/6889243/jarrod-dyson-pinch-runner-extraordinaire-kansas-city-royals-playoffs

Some pretty good stolen base rates on there.