Baseball America's Top 100. Bundy #48, Harvey #68.

[LookinUp]

I hated and still hate the Rodriguez for Miller trade. If it weren't with a divisional rival, it wouldn't bother me so much. But it was. And it does.

I still like the trade.

Ed Rod's value is inflated, IMO, because of his small sample size hot streak to end the year. He's a MOR type to me, with very little chance of being better and a fair chance of being a #5/6.

[Crazysilver03]

I still like the trade.

Ed Rod's value is inflated, IMO, because of his small sample size hot streak to end the year. He's a MOR type to me, with very little chance of being better and a fair chance of being a #5/6.

You must not have read the new write up in the FanGraphs thread. They said he gained velocity in the middle of the year that aided his slider development. If he was just what you think he is, he would be ranked in the top 60.

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[Can_of_corn]

You must not have read the new write up in the FanGraphs thread. They said he gained velocity in the middle of the year that aided his slider development. If he was just what you think he is, he would be ranked in the top 60.

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And did we hear any of that during the season?

I didn't. It is all after the fact.

I am guessing if you pull up the trade thread no one is talking about a recent velocity spike or an improved slider. I don't think it is likely that it was going on when he was still with the O's and no one noticed it.

[Stotle]

June 3, 2014 (at New Hampshire)

FB - 89-92 (93) | Future Grade: 5+

SL - 81-85 | Future Grade: 5+

CH - 83-85 | Future Grade: 5

OFP: High 5; no.3/4 starter

Realistic Outcome: 5; no. 4 starter

[Crazysilver03]

And did we hear any of that during the season?

I didn't. It is all after the fact.

I am guessing if you pull up the trade thread no one is talking about a recent velocity spike or an improved slider. I don't think it is likely that it was going on when he was still with the O's and no one noticed it.

I agree with this for the most part. I want to know if there was a lack of information and that is why ERod got traded, instead of kept. He obviously didn't get instantly better by going to the Red Sox. Something had to have been developing in July while he was still with the Os.

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[Can_of_corn]

I agree with this for the most part. I want to know if there was a lack of information and that is why ERod got traded, instead of kept. He obviously didn't get instantly better by going to the Red Sox. Something had to have been developing in July while he was still with the Os.

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I think it is possible for a quick improvement, like Hader had with the O's, from interaction with a new pitching coach. Maybe they saw something the O's missed.

[Frobby]

I still like the trade.

Ed Rod's value is inflated, IMO, because of his small sample size hot streak to end the year. He's a MOR type to me, with very little chance of being better and a fair chance of being a #5/6.

For six plus years, at low cost. Compared to two months of a shutdown reliever. If EdRod is in a major league rotation for several seasons, this trade is a definite loss, even though Miller met or exceeded expectations.

[hoosiers]

For six plus years, at low cost. Compared to two months of a shutdown reliever. If EdRod is in a major league rotation for several seasons, this trade is a definite loss, even though Miller met or exceeded expectations.

These trades also need to be looked at in context as well. Maybe other teams received more/less for top 100 prospects or perhaps top relievers were dealt who had a year or two left on their contract.

How many top 100 prospects were dealt at the deadline and what was received in return?

[Frobby]

Melewski has a column out where John Manuel explains the reasons for BA's rankings of Bundy and Hunter. Also:

I was told that no O's players came close to making that top 100 besides Bundy and Harvey. Both catcher Chance Sisco and first baseman Christian Walker would have fallen somewhere in the 160-170 range had Baseball America rated that many players.

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2015/02/a-look-at-where-dylan-bundy-and-hunter-harvey-landed-on-another-top-100-list.html

[Ruzious]

I'm the farthest thing from an expert, but finding it very hard to believe there are 160 better prospects than Sisco.

[Tony-OH]

June 3, 2014 (at New Hampshire)

FB - 89-92 (93) | Future Grade: 5+

SL - 81-85 | Future Grade: 5+

CH - 83-85 | Future Grade: 5

OFP: High 5; no.3/4 starter

Realistic Outcome: 5; no. 4 starter

Basically what I saw the two times I saw him this year, though I liked his changeup better than his slider. His slider was anywhere from a 40 to a 55 offering.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Seems way low for bundy.

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[MurphDogg]

Seems way low for bundy.

I really don't get it. Baseball America ranked him #15 last season six months after he had the surgery. They knew what the recovery time was like with the surgery, and that he wouldn't be pitching much in 2014, and certainly not at the pre-surgery level in 2014. Any docking of his prospect value should have already occurred at that point, and 2015 will be the first time when he could hope to pitch without restriction. It simply doesn't make sense for his prospect ranking to have markedly changed from 2014 to 2015.

[hoosiers]

He was no. 65 last year, so he hasn't moved far. But he was probably slated to drop from 65 as of the day he was traded, and improved his standing a lot with his outstanding post-trade performance.

Maybe we need to revisit this convenient story line that EdRod was slated to drop much as a prospect.

What I remember is that the Tigers had a deal in place with the BoSox for Miller (at the prospect request that the BoSox made) but the BoSox had to check one final avenue. I do not know what the Tigers were offering, but it appears the number one target in moving Miller by the BoSox was EdRod. When one thinks of it this way - that EdRod was the top target by the BoSox (and perhaps a request that reached above appropriate value for EdRod) and that EdRod was perceived as being of superior value to the Tigers prospect package - it certainly creates significant doubt that EdRod had fallen very far IMO.

Regardless, we appear to have paid a steep price for a short term, non-closer reliever who produced significantly better results on the field with another organization immediately after leaving the Os. I am starting to think it would be better to just wrap one's head around the "we flat overpaid" aspect of this and just forget everything else.

[Frobby]

Maybe we need to revisit this convenient story line that EdRod was slated to drop much as a prospect.

What I remember is that the Tigers had a deal in place with the BoSox for Miller (at the prospect request that the BoSox made) but the BoSox had to check one final avenue. I do not know what the Tigers were offering, but it appears the number one target in moving Miller by the BoSox was EdRod. When one thinks of it this way - that EdRod was the top target by the BoSox (and perhaps a request that reached above appropriate value for EdRod) and that EdRod was perceived as being of superior value to the Tigers prospect package - it certainly creates significant doubt that EdRod had fallen very far IMO.

Regardless, we appear to have paid a steep price for a short term, non-closer reliever who produced significantly better results on the field with another organization immediately after leaving the Os. I am starting to think it would be better to just wrap one's head around the "we flat overpaid" aspect of this and just forget everything else.

It is not a "convenient story line," at least so far as I am concerned. You can check the record and you will see that I was against the Miller trade when it was made, and I have consistently said that I didn't like the trade. The fact remains that as of the date of the trade, EdRod had posted a 4.79 ERA for the year, with a 1.44 WHIP and a 7.50 K/9 and 2.38 K/BB rate. While prospects are not rated exclusively (perhaps not even primarily) on stats, there is no way EdRod wasn't slated to drop from the no. 65 spot in the rankings as of that date. He resurrected himself by posting a 0.96 ERA with Portland after the trade in 6 starts, with a 1.02 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and 4./88 K/BB.

By the way, there was a poll taken on the day of the trade. I voted that we had paid too high a price. Here's what I said in that thread:

I like Miller, but EdRod was too steep a price. Last year we got KRod for Delmonico. EdRod is a significantly better prospect than Delmonico, IMO, despite having a rocky season. Miller is not having as good a season as KRod was having last year when we acquired him, though his K rate is outrageous.

So, this is the ultimate "now" trade. To justify it, we need to win the division with Miller playing a significant role down the stretch, and IMO, we need to get somewhere in the playoffs.

And this:

For me, the bigger part of the equation is that I really liked EdRod, despite some struggles this year. Delmonico was a guy without a position and it wasn't clear he'd hit enough to play a corner spot. EdRod has a much higher ceiling and floor IMO.

So, plainly, I have always liked EdRod even though he struggled with us last year. But if he hadn't finished so strong with Boston, there's no doubt in my mind he would have dropped in the BA rankings. It's not a "convenient story line" for me.