HHP: Hackers and the new strike zone

[Babypowder]

Some talk has come up recently in a few discussions that hackers may fare better in the larger strike zone of the last few seasons and that perhaps guys that walk a lot are less valuable. I decided to take it upon myself to do a brief study to see if there is any obvious merit to this topic. Now, this was something I did relatively quickly and the methodology isn't perfect so I will not be making any conclusions here but there may be enough information to start forming an opinion. Essentially, I went back to 2008, slightly before the strike zone expansion began, and organized all qualified players by walk rate in each season up until last year. From there, I took the last 30 batters by BB% and the first 30 batters by BB% and averaged their wRC+ in two groups. We will call the first group the Hackers and the second group the Walkers. The results:<style type="text/css">

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<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th></th><th>Hacker wRC+</th><th>Walker wRC+</th></tr>

<tr><td>2008</td><td>96.7</td><td>129.3</td></tr>

<tr><td>2009</td><td>93.7</td><td>134.1</td></tr>

<tr><td>2010</td><td>91.8</td><td>129.3</td></tr>

<tr><td>2011</td><td>95.5</td><td>133.3</td></tr>

<tr><td>2012</td><td>96.7</td><td>125.6</td></tr>

<tr><td>2013</td><td>98.8</td><td>133.3</td></tr>

<tr><td>2014</td><td>95.5</td><td>129.5</td></tr>

</table>

From this information it appears that hackers did see a spike in offensive value after a low point in 2010 and did rise closer to league average coming very close to league average in 2013 and falling back closer to normal levels in 2014. Walkers productivity seems to have stayed pretty constant on the flip side outside of 2012. The delta between the two was furthest in 2009 at 40.4 and smallest in 2012 at 28.9.

Looking at this, I think there is small amounts of evidence to suggest that hitters with poor plate discipline have seen a slight increase in productivity with a growing strike zone in a few recent seasons. Hitters who walk a lot are still just as valuable offensively as they were previously before but there is some evidence of a very slight close in the gap. However, there does not appear to be some monumental change in the guard here. Guys who walk a lot are just as valuable as they have been and guys who don't are generally below average offensive players.

What struck me most about this brief study was the drop in general of walk rate in the league through the last several years. I knew walks were down tremendously recently but watching the top walk rates fall each season was interesting. Was this a waste of time? Probably. It's not a long enough time frame to really find a trend and looking at 60 players each season may not be enough but taking more than that seemed to get too close to league average rates and I didn't want to include partial seasons either due to small sample noise. What do you guys think?

[CA-ORIOLE]

Wow. Great job! Like you said I'm thinking the sample size is too small and the top 30 walkers may slant more favorably toward the walkers imo Maybe a larger more ntermediate sample might show more but it does show something there that some of us suspected. Thanks for the effort.

[Can_of_corn]

Yes thanks for the effort.

At least for me it wasn't so much as walkers were being penalized as hackers might be benefiting. Of course with the gap closing it does hurt the walkers a bit since the level of separation is reduced.

[BarclaySouthway]

Must spread rep. That was great.

[wse120372]

I think teams are getting smarter about not jamming a square peg in a round hole. Strike zone discipline is a skill just like speed, power and

contact. Why try to make a player who doesn't have that skill take hittable pitches only to get behind in the count?

[Babypowder]

Wow. Great job! Like you said I'm thinking the sample size is too small and the top 30 walkers may slant more favorably toward the walkers imo Maybe a larger more ntermediate sample might show more but it does show something there that some of us suspected. Thanks for the effort.

Yes, choosing the sample was difficult. There are only about 140 qualified hitters each season so the pool is already small right off the bat. Then to me it seemed like after the first 30 you got pretty near league average and of course I didn't want to count those guys in this experiment. I might take a look and see what maybe 50 guys does.