So who wants Baldelli?

[davearm]

Neither do i because your explanations are awful.

Lets assume we had Baldelli and never signed Payton.

If Baldelli misses 37 games this year, who would the Orioles use to replace him in LF? The answer is likely Huff for most of the time with guys like Knott, Dubois and maybe Bynum getting a few starts. So, what is the WARP of those guys for 37 games + Baldelli's WARP for 125 games in comparison to Payton for 150 games + whoever for 12 games.

That is what this is about.

If you take that approach, and assume the O's have a guy on the bench that can provide >0 WARP when Baldelli is out of action, then WARP would overstate Baldelli's value when he's in action.

If you can understand why this is the case, then you'll begin to grasp the importance of using a single, constant baseline throughout. (And you can choose whatever baseline you want, so long as you hold it constant and apply it to everyone. I'm using replacement level, because it's the easiest and most straightforward.)

[tim27]

If you take that approach, and assume the O's have a guy on the bench that can provide >0 WARP when Baldelli is out of action, then WARP would overstate Baldelli's value when he's in action.

If you can understand why this is the case, then you'll begin to grasp the importance of using a single, constant baseline throughout. (And you can choose whatever baseline you want, so long as you hold it constant and apply it to everyone. I'm using replacement level, because it's the easiest and most straightforward.)

Of course he undestands this. He can read.

[HoodGuy007]

Sarcasm. It's what's for dinner.

[wildcard]

If the O's were close to being a pennant contender yes. But IMO the smart GMs parlay closers who are generally overvalued into players who make the team better and then find someone else who ends up doing as good if not a better job closing games.

In a perfect world the O's would of parlayed BJ Ryan for some young talent and replaced them with Ray. In a perfect world the O's would parlay Chris Ray for some young talent and plug someone else into the closers role. It's not that hard to find a competent closer. When you have one w/inflatated value why on earth wouldn't you try to parlay that into something more valuable?

Smart GMs, smart GMs..... you mean like Pat Gillick.

1995 the O's were 71-73..

They hired smart GM Pat Gillick. He signs Randy Myers.

Over the next two years the O's go:

1996: 88-74

1997: 98-64 wire to wire

My point is that when a team is ready to make a move is the time to have a lights out closer like Ray. The young starters are maturing. Roberts, Mora, Markakis, Tejada, Huff and Hernandez are a strong core of player. Its time to move to over .500 and to contention in 2008.

[wildcard]

I will agree with wildcard on this one. I would not do the deal, but that's mostly because I have a hunch that Penn will turn out to be better than at least one of the Big Three. That's not to say I expect one of them to fail, but Penn's MiL numbers are just too dominating at too young an age for me to ignore. The only way we are going to win our division is with great pitching anyway, and I think it's harder to find a #3 pitcher (which I expect Penn to be at the least) AND a closer than a CF.

Thank you. I like the way you think.

[wildcard]

So, we finish 79-83, our future is grim but if we finish 81-81 it is not grim?

You are putting way too much value on a closer for a 500 team.

I hate trading Penn but we need young positional talent.

You tell me what is going to happen in 2010 after we lose everybody. It doesn't look good right now.

You talk abotu short sighted...Short sighted is playing for now when you aren't that good to begin with.

The team the O's currently have is 85-81 wins. Trade away Penn and Ray. They are under .500 even with Baldelli. Better offense. Way poorer and thinner pitching.

From 85 to 81 wins they attract better free agents, get the rep as an up and coming team. Have a decent chance at contending next year.

Under .500. Still a losing team. No hype. Harder to attract FAs. Harder to contend in 2008.

[DrungoHazewood]

The two alternatives are:

Baldelli for 125, and replacement-level for 37 (Bynum, say).

versus

Payton for 162.

Baldelli for 125 then Payton for 37 would be better than either of the above. But I'm considering Baldelli and Payton as mutually exclusive.

I know I'm coming late to this, but if that's really the situation we're trying to resolve then, yes, Baldelli + Bynum might be roughly equivalent to Payton.

But if I was trying to decided on a trade for Baldelli to replace Payton, I'd also consider their breakout/collapse chances, too. Payton is at an age where he's not that far from dropping below acceptable performance. If he has a reasonable age-related collapse of 15% or 20% he's done. He'd be Freddy Bynum, just without the speed or versatility.

Baldelli, IMO, has about the same chance of having a breakthrough as Payton does of collapsing. It's possible that by the end of '07 Baldelli is an MVP candidate and Payton is fighting for a major league job.

[Guest rochester]

Couldn't agree more. Your post sums up the situation perfectly.

Tough call... I am not in the "Penn is going to make it" camp and like Ray...and , of course, Baldelli BUT.... 2 things:

1) How can everyone trash Gibbons and his injury issues when IMO Baldelli is at least if not more of a gamble? I know, the numbers may say Baldelli is better but only when he is playing...

2) I could just imagine the daggers thrown at the FO on this board if we did do a Penn/Ray trade for Baldelli and he and his pessimistic view of his injury (which may be dead on) took another 1/2 year or so out...

Obviously their FO has to be "optimistic" in public....but they may also be thinking on how they could unload him for help.. I am sure it is extremely frustrating going into every season (now) not knowing if one of your starters is going to be available or how much they are going to be.

Hammy injuries are strange..... I am no doctor (is there one in the house) but...I believe that many come from not exercising/stretching is a good way to begin the problem...let alone the ACL issue....

Saying that...I might still make the trade...but would not be one to second guess the FO if they did...

[Guest rochester]

I know I'm coming late to this, but if that's really the situation we're trying to resolve then, yes, Baldelli + Bynum might be roughly equivalent to Payton.

But if I was trying to decided on a trade for Baldelli to replace Payton, I'd also consider their breakout/collapse chances, too. Payton is at an age where he's not that far from dropping below acceptable performance. If he has a reasonable age-related collapse of 15% or 20% he's done. He'd be Freddy Bynum, just without the speed or versatility.

Baldelli, IMO, has about the same chance of having a breakthrough as Payton does of collapsing. It's possible that by the end of '07 Baldelli is an MVP candidate and Payton is fighting for a major league job.

Possible yes...but only if he is playing...

[wildcard]

Short sighted is using the possibility of Wright getting hurt or Traschel being a bust and Olson/Liz/Guthrie/Johnson not being ready or capable of stepping in as a reason not to consider trading Penn/Ray.

I agree w/you that Ray and Penn could be long term players with high vlalue.

The question is are they more valuable to the O's over the long term by remaining Orioles or are they more valuable being used as chips to acquire piece(s) that bring additional value to the table.

In the case of Ray with how closers are overvalued and with guys we have in the system who have the talent to close it makes a lot of sense to explore trading him if the returns are high. Penn has a lot more value if he develops and of course there is risk there that he won't ever become a solid ML starter although I do like his odds. That said, when talking about acquiring someone of Baldelli's talent level you have to give up value.

Trading Ray/Penn for Baldelli would be the wise move if the opportunity presented itself.

We clearly do not agree. I think we understand each others points, but we do not agree. Which is fine.

I think there is value to a winning record in 2007. It puts the O's on the right track. Having the pitching to do that is important. Ray, as a lights out closer and Penn as someone who is added the rotation when someone goes down (as they always do) is a must if the O's want to get to .500.

.500 or better in 2007

contention in 2008

I don't see that happening if you trade Ray and Penn. High ceiling pitchers are too hard to come by and they are the only way the O's are going to beat the Yankees and Red Sox.

[JTrea81]

The team the O's currently have is 85-81 wins. Trade away Penn and Ray. They are under .500 even with Baldelli. Better offense. Way poorer and thinner pitching.

From 85 to 81 wins they attract better free agents, get the rep as an up and coming team. Have a decent chance at contending next year.

Under .500. Still a losing team. No hype. Harder to attract FAs. Harder to contend in 2008.

Losing Chris Ray and putting Baez in his place and adding someone like Hoey or Birkins does not put us under .500 automatically. If anything Baldelli's offensive production gives us extra wins over Payton to make it not only a wash but a improvement. If he stays healthy and the O's get good pitching the O's will win 90 games maybe more. It all depends on the starters as we all know and the bullpen is deep enough to lose Ray. The gain from Baldelli defensively and offensively makes up for the loss of Ray if there is any downgrade to Baez. Baez had 40 saves once, don't forget. Olson or Guthrie can replace Penn as first in line if Trax or Wright falters.

[wildcard]

The real wildcard in all of this is Penn.

Trading Penn would suck and if he ends up better than 1 or even all 3 of our big 3, i wouldn't be shocked.

But there is also the other side to pitching prospects, whether it be not developing or injuries.

If we weren't deep in pitching and didn't have the big 3 already, i would be against this trade.

But, with our lack of top young players and our depth in young arms, i think this is a trade you have to make.

Now, if you say, i don't want to trade for Baldelli because of injury concerns, i get that and i can't really argue against it.

I say both things.

High ceiling pitchers like Ray and Penn are more important than a injury proned OF like Baldelli.

As I said, the O's are better trading Baez for a position player at the deadline or whenever someone steps up to take the setup job.

[davearm]

I know I'm coming late to this, but if that's really the situation we're trying to resolve then, yes, Baldelli + Bynum might be roughly equivalent to Payton.

But if I was trying to decided on a trade for Baldelli to replace Payton, I'd also consider their breakout/collapse chances, too. Payton is at an age where he's not that far from dropping below acceptable performance. If he has a reasonable age-related collapse of 15% or 20% he's done. He'd be Freddy Bynum, just without the speed or versatility.

Baldelli, IMO, has about the same chance of having a breakthrough as Payton does of collapsing. It's possible that by the end of '07 Baldelli is an MVP candidate and Payton is fighting for a major league job.

Naturally, all of those are factors to be considered.

Really, all I was doing was a "quick and dirty" yet reasonable analysis using the historically-based WARP3 numbers that BP puts out.

[Fan4Life]

Originally Posted by DrungoHazewood

I know I'm coming late to this, but if that's really the situation we're trying to resolve then, yes, Baldelli + Bynum might be roughly equivalent to Payton.

But if I was trying to decided on a trade for Baldelli to replace Payton, I'd also consider their breakout/collapse chances, too. Payton is at an age where he's not that far from dropping below acceptable performance. If he has a reasonable age-related collapse of 15% or 20% he's done. He'd be Freddy Bynum, just without the speed or versatility.

Baldelli, IMO, has about the same chance of having a breakthrough as Payton does of collapsing. It's possible that by the end of '07 Baldelli is an MVP candidate and Payton is fighting for a major league job.[/Quote]

Naturally, all of those are factors to be considered.

Really, all I was doing was a "quick and dirty" yet reasonable analysis using the historically-based WARP3 numbers that BP puts out.

Since we speaking about chances of this or that.. isn't there also the chance he never becomes more than a player with great potential that couldn't escape the injury bug?

[Sports Guy]

I say both things.

High ceiling pitchers like Ray and Penn are more important than a injury proned OF like Baldelli.

As I said, the O's are better trading Baez for a position player at the deadline or whenever someone steps up to take the setup job.

I think you, like most GMs, overrate the value of a closer, especially on a non contender.