Would you sign Manny for 11/$231 mm?

[MurphDogg]

Well, it would be something like 5/$180 to also account for the arbitration years. But no, that would be way too much. 5/$120 is more reasonable but that still is a bit high. $30M per year over his free agent years is about right, and it is nice not to have to pay for his decline, but there would need to be a slight discount for guaranteeing the money two years in advance.

[FanSince88]

I can see your argument, but I still think any contract at $50MM per season is just an exercise in imaginary money...

Follow up question, then -- do you think the Yankees do something like this, given their horrible luck recently on long-term contracts?

[El Gordo]

Yes, 2019-2021, if I'm not mistaken.

You need to reword your Poll. It's confusing. Manny stands to make between 20-25 M for his last two arb years and between 35-40 M for his FA years, so 3 FA years at 40 M plus 25 M arb years is 145M, so yeah I guess he would take it.

[MurphDogg]

Follow up question, then -- do you think the Yankees do something like this, given their horrible luck recently on long-term contracts?

No. If he gets that close to free agency, he signs a 10/$350ish deal, rather than something like this.

[Can_of_corn]

Well, it would be something like 5/$180 to also account for the arbitration years. But no, that would be way too much. 5/$120 is more reasonable but that still is a bit high. $30M per year over his free agent years is about right, and it is nice not to have to pay for his decline, but there would need to be a slight discount for guaranteeing the money two years in advance.

I would like to see a team on the cusp go 1/40 or even 1/50 for someone like Trout/Harper.

How amusing would it be to watch someone like Harper sign a series of one year deals, jumping from team to team?

[Can_of_corn]

Follow up question, then -- do you think the Yankees do something like this, given their horrible luck recently on long-term contracts?

I think the Yankees want Harper.

I think Harper wants the Yankees.

I think they go Harper and one of the big ticket FA pitchers.

[El Gordo]

Well, it would be something like 5/$180 to also account for the arbitration years. But no, that would be way too much. 5/$120 is more reasonable but that still is a bit high. $30M per year over his free agent years is about right, and it is nice not to have to pay for his decline, but there would need to be a slight discount for guaranteeing the money two years in advance.

If this were his FA year, maybe, but that won't be the going rate in 2018.

[WEAVERMAN]

The bidding for MM starts at 5/100. I hope PGA will do at least 7/175 this off season. PGA needs to be involved.

[ledzepp8]

But what about the arbitration years?

Besides if they're going to give him 50 million per year then they might as well sign him for 10 years. Either way I doubt that's happening. Look at it this way last year was his best year and he was "only" worth 54 million dollars.

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[El Gordo]

No. If he gets that close to free agency, he signs a 10/$350ish deal, rather than something like this.

And don't forget the opt out.

[El Gordo]

But what about the arbitration years?

Besides if they're going to give him 50 million per year then they might as well sign him for 10 years. Either way I doubt that's happening. Look at it this way last year was his best year and he was "only" worth 54 million dollars.

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You think that was his career year at age 22? Besides one WAR will be worth more than 8 M in 2018.

[FanSince88]

Well, it would be something like 5/$180 to also account for the arbitration years. But no, that would be way too much. 5/$120 is more reasonable but that still is a bit high. $30M per year over his free agent years is about right, and it is nice not to have to pay for his decline, but there would need to be a slight discount for guaranteeing the money two years in advance.

Thanks for clarifying, MuprhDogg, didn't realize it would have to cover the next two seasons too. So yes, 5/180 would be what I was getting at.

My concern with a 10/300 deal is paying for decline, quite frankly. I'd rather give him half the money but $50mil AAV for 3 years where he's still south of 30 rather than having to pay him for several years of his 30s but lower AAV.

[weams]

Just making sure I am not hallucinating: Three years at 50 million a year?

His next two seasons are controlled at ~ 20 Million total. So that is 130 million for one year? After Buck and Dan and Adam leave? No.

[TheWall]

You're basically paying for 5 years in 3 if the 10 year option is 10/$300. So, we would need to decide if the additional 7 years for the price of 5 are worth it. Even in decline I can't see him not being worth 7/$150 in his late 20s / early 30s.

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[weams]

Thanks for clarifying, MuprhDogg, didn't realize it would have to cover the next two seasons too. So yes, 5/180 would be what I was getting at.

My concern with a 10/300 deal is paying for decline, quite frankly. I'd rather give him half the money but $50mil AAV for 3 years where he's still south of 30 rather than having to pay him for several years of his 30s but lower AAV.

So 50 million a year? When no one has broken 28 million? Wha?