Manny!!!!

[backwardsk]

No but I don't see him getting much more than six years for $120 mil or so.

It's conceivable that 10 years from now, a player like Manny could command a 3/$120M for his ages 33-35 seasons. Then if he signed a sub-Beltran level deal for 4/$60, that would put his career earnings at over $380M. You said previously that he wouldn't make much more than $300M if he signed a 10/$200 now.

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[Frobby]

I tend to agree with you, I guess, the unknown equation here is, which Angelos is still running this team.

I don't see Daddy Angelos doing this, then, I agree, I didn't see him allowing what they gave for Ubaldo either.

However, if Son Angelos is running this team, and by all account it appears that he is, I wonder what his own feelings are, and how much free range does he have in overseeing the operations.

Ubaldo's contract is pocket change by today's standards. He's not even in the top 20 among active pitchers. But there have only been 10 contracts of $200 mm+ in the history of baseball (and that's counting ARod's two overlapping contracts separately). Manny's totally worth it when you consider his age, but I just don't see Angelos being the type to make that kind of long term commitment.

[Redskins Rick]

Ubaldo's contract is pocket change by today's standards. He's not even in the top 20 among active pitchers. But there have only been 10 contracts of $200 mm+ in the history of baseball (and that's counting ARod's two overlapping contracts separately). Manny's totally worth it when you consider his age, but I just don't see Angelos being the type to make that kind of long term commitment.

Correct, but, it was still a first for him to go that high for a pitcher.

[Frobby]

Correct, but, it was still a first for him to go that high for a pitcher.

I know, but I wasn't surprised because it wasn't really all that high by today's standards.

[TINSTAAPP]

It's conceivable that 10 years from now, a player like Manny could command a 3/$120M for his ages 33-35 seasons. Then if he signed a sub-Beltran level deal for 4/$60, that would put his career earnings at over $380M. You said previously that he wouldn't make much more than $300M if he signed a 10/$200 now

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$300 million is probably a little low. It'll probably be closer to $340 million. He'll get 10 years $220 million and then something like 6 years $120 million. It'll take him 15 years to make $340 miilion. If he takes a 5 year $100 million deal now, he'll hit free agency at age 28 and he will almost certainly get a 10 year $300 million deal from some team. So he'll make $400 million in 15 years. And the third option is to sign a Stanton-like mega contract. I personally believe Manny is the better and more valuable player so let's add $25 million to Manny's deal to make it 13 years for $350 million. After his deal is up, he might re-up for something like 3 years, $50 million. So he'll wind up making over $400 million in 16 years. Signing a 10 year deal now will probably cost Manny $60 million.

But let's say teams still haven't learned from their mistakes and are still giving out huge contracts to players over 30 and Manny gets another huge deal. Manny will have to play for two or three more years to make the same amount of money. It'll take 18 years to make what he would have gotten in 15 or 16. That might not sound like much to you but that's two or three more years of having to handle the daily grind of baseball, two or three more years of having to put up with a body less willing to cooperate and the additional aches and pains that comes with being an aging baseball player. Why would Manny want to do that?

[Frobby]

Manny's not going to get a 5/$100 mm deal, when he'll probably only get $30 mm or so over the next three years in arbitration.

By the way, fangraphs is counting down the top 50 players in terms of trade value. So far they've counted down 11-50, with no Orioles on the list. I have no doubt at all Manny will be in the top 10, the only question is will he be top 5.

[Can_of_corn]

Manny's not going to get a 5/$100 mm deal, when he'll probably only get $30 mm or so over the next three years in arbitration.

By the way, fangraphs is counting down the top 50 players in terms of trade value. So far they've counted down 11-50, with no Orioles on the list. I have no doubt at all Manny will be in the top 10, the only question is will he be top 5.

That was an impressive group of players 11-20.

[MurphDogg]

Manny's not going to get a 5/$100 mm deal, when he'll probably only get $30 mm or so over the next three years in arbitration.

By the way, fangraphs is counting down the top 50 players in terms of trade value. So far they've counted down 11-50, with no Orioles on the list. I have no doubt at all Manny will be in the top 10, the only question is will he be top 5.

I think if Manny goes year-to-year, he clears $30 million with ease. I think 8-12-16 is about right, but that could be a little light, he could get $40 million, and if so, $30 million a year for a couple free agency years isn't exactly nuts with no post-peak years dragging it down. Still, 5/$100 may be a little high, I think 5/$90 or 6/$120 are more on target.

[Can_of_corn]

So Manny is #8 on the 2015 Trade Value list. They added a new feature, a 5 year WAR projection.

Manny comes in at #2 on the WAR list at 34.2 WAR.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-the-top-10/

Of the 50 players in this series, only one — I’ll let you guess who that is — projects to be more valuable over the next five years than Baltimore’s star third baseman. That’s right, ZIPS thinks Machado is going to be the second best player in baseball going forward, a two-way star who has turned into a monster at the plate.

Machado has added legitimate power, nearly doubled his walk rate, and simultaneously improved his contact rate to an above average level; he’s now a beast of a hitter who also happens to be an elite defensive third baseman.

[TINSTAAPP]

Manny being behind Correa, Bryant and Anthony Rizzo is an absolute joke. He should be no lower than 4 behind Trout, Harper and Goldschmidt.

[Can_of_corn]

Manny being behind Correa, Bryant and Anthony Rizzo is an absolute joke. He should be no lower than 4 behind Trout, Harper and Goldschmidt.

You would rather have three years of Manny then six of Correa?

Team control and cost are part of the process here.

[TINSTAAPP]

You would rather have three years of Manny then six of Correa?

Team control and cost are part of the process here.

If team control is so important, why isn't Harper ranked lower? He has three more years of team control left just like Manny does.

[Can_of_corn]

If team control is so important, why isn't Harper ranked lower? He has three more years of team control left just like Manny does.

I'm going with he's younger and hasn't missed time with a pair of knee surgeries.

You have to drop Manny because of the injury history.

[TINSTAAPP]

I'm going with he's younger and hasn't missed time with a pair of knee surgeries.

You have to drop Manny because of the injury history.

If that is the writer's line of thinking, he is truly splitting hairs. First of all, Harper is only three months younger than Manny. Not years. Months. Second, Harper's been a pretty injury-prone player himself. He's actually missed more games than Manny has over the past three seasons. Plus Manny's injuries were caused by a congenital defect which has been surgically corrected. Harper's been injured a lot because he plays very recklessly. He also has a very violent swing that is taxing on the body. If I had to make a bet, I would say Machado will miss fewer games due to injury than Harper over the next five seasons.

[Can_of_corn]

If that is the writer's line of thinking, he is truly splitting hairs. First of all, Harper is only three months younger than Manny. Not years. Months. Second, Harper's been a pretty injury-prone player himself. He's actually missed more games than Manny has over the past three seasons. Plus Manny's injuries were caused by a congenital defect which has been surgically corrected. Harper's been injured a lot because he plays very recklessly. He also has a very violent swing that is taxing on the body. If I had to make a bet, I would say Machado will miss fewer games due to injury than Harper over the next five seasons.

Did you actually read the piece? Or did you just look at the names in the list?