Crush surpassed his 2014 HR and RBI totals last night

[Can_of_corn]

I actually believe Chris Davis is for real. He has a .294 BABIP this year which is a very normal BABIP and is actually well below his career BABIP of .317. But I just don't trust him to still be productive three years from now because he's such a flawed hitter. High strikeout guys never age well. See Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn.

You should never say never.

Reggie Jackson.

30-36 OPS+

155, 150, 136, 150, 172, 120, 147.

[incubus]

I actually believe Chris Davis is for real. He has a .294 BABIP this year which is a very normal BABIP and is actually well below his career BABIP of .317. But I just don't trust him to still be productive three years from now because he's such a flawed hitter. High strikeout guys never age well. See Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn.

One difference between your two examples and Davis. Davis keeps himself in really good shape.

[Frobby]

I actually believe Chris Davis is for real. He has a .294 BABIP this year which is a very normal BABIP and is actually well below his career BABIP of .317. But I just don't trust him to still be productive three years from now because he's such a flawed hitter. High strikeout guys never age well. See Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn.

I agree there's risk there. I will say this: Crush is in much better physical condition than either Howard or Dunn, so I don't know that their failures doom Davis to the same fate. But it's a reason to be wary.

[TINSTAAPP]

You should never say never.

Reggie Jackson.

30-36 OPS+

155, 150, 136, 150, 172, 120, 147.

Yes but Reggie's a first ballot HOFer and one of the all-time greats. Davis has a lot more in common with Howard and Dunn than he does with Reggie. I could also add Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Richie Sexson and Rob Deer. All of those guys completely fell apart in their early 30s. The only players with high strikeout rates who are still productive into their mid to late 30s are the special HOF talents like Jackson or Jim Thome. For everybody else, it eventually catches up with them and cause them to decline much faster than usual.

[Morgan423]

Yes but Reggie's a first ballot HOFer and one of the all-time greats. Davis has a lot more in common with Howard and Dunn than he does with Reggie. I could also add Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Richie Sexson and Rob Deer. All of those guys completely fell apart in their early 30s. The only players with high strikeout rates who are still productive into their mid to late 30s are the special HOF talents like Jackson or Jim Thome. For everybody else, it eventually catches up with them and cause them to decline much faster than usual.

He's not saying that Chris Davis is Reggie Jackson. He's just saying there's a possibility that Crush won't decline. I'm sure he will eventually, but the only question (for us or anyone else trying to sign him upcoming) is when.

[Can_of_corn]

Yes but Reggie's a first ballot HOFer and one of the all-time greats. Davis has a lot more in common with Howard and Dunn than he does with Reggie. I could also add Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Richie Sexson and Rob Deer. All of those guys completely fell apart in their early 30s. The only players with high strikeout rates who are still productive into their mid to late 30s are the special HOF talents like Jackson or Jim Thome. For everybody else, it eventually catches up with them and cause them to decline much faster than usual.

I'm not saying Davis is as good as Jackson. But Jackson, and as you pointed out Thome, are high strikeout guys that aged well.

Davis is a better athlete then the members of the cliff club.

I expect him to still be productive three or four years down the line.

Of course I see him getting at least six years so it's kind of a moot point.

[bpilktree]

One difference between your two examples and Davis. Davis keeps himself in really good shape.

Yeah he minds me a bit more like Jim Thome both came up as 3rd baseman then moved to 1st both more athletic then eople thought and just plain strong guys. Thome from age 36-40 hit 43, 35,34, 23, 25 homers and from 36 to 38 OPS around 930.

[El Gordo]

I agree there's risk there. I will say this: Crush is in much better physical condition than either Howard or Dunn, so I don't know that their failures doom Davis to the same fate. But it's a reason to be wary.

In his ages 30-34 years Dunn was .215 .329 .436 .765 108 OPS + with 29 HR and 78 RBI average. Howard .249 .329 .454 .783 112 OPS+ with 22 HR and 84 RBI average. Both were defensively challenged players as Davis is not. I think he can do a little better than them over the next 5 years,.

[bobmc]

I agree there's risk there. I will say this: Crush is in much better physical condition than either Howard or Dunn, so I don't know that their failures doom Davis to the same fate. But it's a reason to be wary.

Wow - sounds like the Bard - no not Josh! This is why Frobby brings it 24/7! :scratchchinhmm: Hangout Blogger of the Year?

[Can_of_corn]

Wow - sounds like the Bard - no not Josh! This is why Frobby brings it 24/7! :scratchchinhmm: Hangout Blogger of the Year?

It's a wide open field since Birdland was released.

[bobmc]

It's a wide open field since Birdland was released.

Unless his bid for reinstatement is approved by the Chief's Council.....smoke them "peace pipes" and get back to me....

[gmelson26]

Why can't do what some other teams do. Sign him for the 6 year deal with the intent to deal him to a big market club after like year 3?

[OFFNY]

Unless his bid for reinstatement is approved by the Chief's Council.....smoke them "peace pipes" and get back to me....

And unlike some others who sneak on here under a different screen name after their release, Birdland would indeed have to be reinstated in order to start posting again.

His punctuation in his posts make/made it impossible for him to go undetected for more than 10 minutes.

[Lucky Jim]

Reggie Jackson struck out approximately 20% of the time during his prime, Davis is 30% and above every season with the O's save for 2013 when he was at 29.6. The difference is significant.

Thome struck out a lot, but he also swung at fewer pitches OOZ than most and connected with them at a higher rate than most. Davis swings at more OOZ pitches and connects on fewer.

Thome may be the most optimistic comp, but he's also an anomaly: a look at those with extreme strike-out rarates shows very little long-term stability and carry in terms of value.

I counseled against a long-term Davis contract after 2013 because, I noted, his penchant for extreme swing-and-miss numbers lent an inherent volatility to his projections. Nothing's changed, other than one solid example of that volatility in 2014 and one solid year where he has stabilized a bit.

If he's a 3-win player this year, then he's worth roughly $21m. If you take his four-year average, then he's roughly a 3-win a year player since 2012. Any analysis has to build in the standard decline of players 30-35, and must build in the volatility inherent in a player like Davis. The power is legit, but the uncertainty is sky-high and the defensive value is low.

I might go something like 4/68 but more likely I'd just make him a QO and let him go.

[Can_of_corn]

Reggie Jackson struck out approximately 20% of the time during his prime, Davis is 30% and above every season with the O's save for 2013 when he was at 29.6. The difference is significant.

Thome struck out a lot, but he also swung at fewer pitches OOZ than most and connected with them at a higher rate than most. Davis swings at more OOZ pitches and connects on fewer.

Thome may be the most optimistic comp, but he's also an anomaly: a look at those with extreme strike-out rarates shows very little long-term stability and carry in terms of value.

I counseled against a long-term Davis contract after 2013 because, I noted, his penchant for extreme swing-and-miss numbers lent an inherent volatility to his projections. Nothing's changed, other than one solid example of that volatility in 2015 and one solid year where he has stabilized a bit.

If he's a 3-win player this year, then he's worth roughly $21m. If you take his four-year average, then he's roughly a 3-win a year player since 2012. Any analysis has to build into its analysis the standard decline of players 30-35, and must build in the volatility inherent in a player like Davis. The power is legit, but the uncertainty is sky-high and the defensive value is low.

I might go something like 4/68 but more likely I'd just make him a QO and let him go.

And how does the K rate today compare to the K rate then?