Wieters in 2016

[24fps]

I just included all four possibilities. Obviously you aren't going to pick option four unless you're an idiot.

Nothing idiotic at all about choosing not to risk something in the neighborhood of $17 million on Wieters' likely production in 2016. He just might take the QO if one's offered. Had that option been clear, I think the overwhelming support for #2 would be much different. I know I would have chosen differently.

Right now Wieters is 100 OPS+ for the year which is also his career number. Not worth risking $17 million for.

[HokieOs]

Nothing idiotic at all about choosing not to risk something in the neighborhood of $17 million on Wieters' likely production in 2016. He just might take the QO if one's offered. Had that option been clear, I think the overwhelming support for #2 would be much different. I know I would have chosen differently.

Right now Wieters is 100 OPS+ for the year which is also his career number. Not worth risking $17 million for.

I was getting ready to post something similar. While I don't advocate choice 4, I don't think it's idiotic to think that it may be the best course of action, especially in 2 months. A lot of his value was built into him once being a great prospect and the fact that early last year it looked like he was finally turning a corner as a hitter.

Now, he's back to his career averages. He has a career .257 BA. His OPS is under .750. OPS+ is a middle of the road 100. He has a major recent injury. Oh, and he'l be 30 early next season, his first with is new team.

I'm not sure why anyone would give him a large multi-year contract. He may just accept the QO.

[SteveO]

I tend to think the better poll question is ....Should the O's risk offering MW the Qualifying offer.

[ChuckS]

I considered it possible before that Matt might accept a QO and try to rebuild his value for 2017 because with the #'s he is putting up plus the fact that he's only catching every other day, I'm not sure any teams are going to risk giving him a big contract. 4/50 might be the type of contract he is looking at right now, unless he finishes strong.

But the more I think about it the kind of middling #'s Matt is putting up to this point is pretty consistent with his career. He might know in his heart that's he's not capable of much better offensively and waiting another year could hurt him since he will then be a 31 y/o catcher going into free agency looking for a long term contract.

Give him the QO and hope he declines it.

[Scrat1]

I tend to think the better poll question is ....Should the O's risk offering MW the Qualifying offer.

Nothing idiotic at all about choosing not to risk something in the neighborhood of $17 million on Wieters' likely production in 2016. He just might take the QO if one's offered. Had that option been clear, I think the overwhelming support for #2 would be much different. I know I would have chosen differently.

Right now Wieters is 100 OPS+ for the year which is also his career number. Not worth risking $17 million for.

Steveo is right. As I have the options, however, the fourth option is clearly nonsensical, because there's no way for it to be a better scenario than the scenario where he leaves and takes a pick. 24ps, you're reading it as I should have put it, which I appreciate, but as I have it, there's no way for the fourth option to be the best.

[24fps]

I considered it possible before that Matt might accept a QO and try to rebuild his value for 2017 because with the #'s he is putting up plus the fact that he's only catching every other day, I'm not sure any teams are going to risk giving him a big contract. 4/50 might be the type of contract he is looking at right now, unless he finishes strong.

But the more I think about it the kind of middling #'s Matt is putting up to this point is pretty consistent with his career. He might know in his heart that's he's not capable of much better offensively and waiting another year could hurt him since he will then be a 31 y/o catcher going into free agency looking for a long term contract.

Give him the QO and hope he declines it.

$17 million out of a budget of $120 million is a little over 14%. If he accepts, which I think is very possible under the circumstances, it's going to be hard to argue after the fact that a career 100 OPS+ player should be taking up that much of the payroll and be better paid that AJ just because the best-case upside was a compensation round pick. The potential payoff doesn't come close to justifying the risk.

I wouldn't be surprised if DD tried to work something out with Matt at considerably less than $17 million per, but if that goes nowhere no way does DD risk having his hands tied that badly for 2016.

[TouchemAll]

Best case - he refuses the QO, signs somewhere else, and we get a pick.

Yep... :agree:

[Rene88]

Good question-will he accept QO? He might. He might not.

As long as we don't sign him long term, I am happy.

[theobird]

$17 million out of a budget of $120 million is a little over 14%. If he accepts, which I think is very possible under the circumstances, it's going to be hard to argue after the fact that a career 100 OPS+ player should be taking up that much of the payroll and be better paid that AJ just because the best-case upside was a compensation round pick. The potential payoff doesn't come close to justifying the risk.

I wouldn't be surprised if DD tried to work something out with Matt at considerably less than $17 million per, but if that goes nowhere no way does DD risk having his hands tied that badly for 2016.

I do not think there is any doubt that Wieters accepts the qualifying offer to build up his value for a big pay day. He would be stupid not to. The way things have gone for him this season, especially not being able to catch consecutive days, he will not get a long term contract from anyone approaching an AAV of 17 million. He will jump on a one year deal at 17 million and then go Free Agent. That is a dream scenario for Matt.

[ChuckS]

I do not think there is any doubt that Wieters accepts the qualifying offer to build up his value for a big pay day. He would be stupid not to. The way things have gone for him this season, especially not being able to catch consecutive days, he will not get a long term contract from anyone approaching an AAV of 17 million. He will jump on a one year deal at 17 million and then go Free Agent. That is a dream scenario for Matt.

I think it's pretty close to 50/50 that he accepts the QO. His value may not be any higher next season and he will be a year older. A 30 y/o catcher is more attractive than a 31 y/o catcher on a long term deal.

[Bird Dog]

I would absolutely give Matt Wieters a five year 60 million dollar deal. And the minute he looked good, I'd trade that all for a haul.

Me too....great move !

[Bird Dog]

I tend to think the better poll question is ....Should the O's risk offering MW the Qualifying offer.

I agree and the answer is NO.

[UpstateNYfan]

Right now (may change), I think Joseph is perhaps a better defensive catcher than MW. The two throws he made today were extremely poor. They seemed to lack both accuracy and velocity. Offensively Matt looks more like a slap hitter. Maybe all will be good next year, but 17 mil is a lot to risk on a 100 game catcher with the power he is currently showing.

[JayThomas]

Right now (may change), I think Joseph is perhaps a better defensive catcher than MW. The two throws he made today were extremely poor. They seemed to lack both accuracy and velocity. Offensively Matt looks more like a slap hitter. Maybe all will be good next year, but 17 mil is a lot to risk on a 100 game catcher with the power he is currently showing.

I agree about today. I don't think I've seen 2 lamer throws in a long time. On one of them he looked like he was moving in slow motion just to deliver the ball, which was then off-line. Matt is not giving us anything defensively that Caleb doesn't, that's pretty clear.

[sportsfan8703]

Palmer made a great observation after the game. That the best pitch in baseball is the low and away fastball. Said Dave Wallace feels the same way. He pointed out that the target was never set for low and away. That's on MW.