Were O's starting pitchers just lucky in 2014, unlucky in 2015, or a combination of the two?

[mdbdotcom]

Our starting pitching was terrific in 2014 and terrible last season.

Were they just lucky in 2014?

Were they just unlucky in 2015?

What should we expect of them in 2016?

[Can_of_corn]

The defense was terrific in 2014 and blah last season.

[mdbdotcom]

The defense was terrific in 2014 and blah last season.

They were hitting their spots in 2014 and not in 2015. I think that was a bigger part of the problem.

[weams]

Our starting pitching was terrific in 2014 and terrible last season.

Were they just lucky in 2014?

Were they just unlucky in 2015?

What should we expect of them in 2016?

I will answer this in my own way. I want a couple different starters in 2016.

[Can_of_corn]

2014 ERA FIP

Tillman 3.34 4.01

Ublado 4.81 4.67

Norris 3.65 4.22

Chen 3.54 3.89

Gonzo 3.23 4.89

Gausman 3.57 3.41

2015 ERA FIP

Tillman 4.99 4.45

Ubaldo 4.11 4.01

Norris 7.06 5.64

Chen 3.34 4.16

Gonzo 4.91 5.01

Gausman 4.25 4.10

I think the defense certainly played a large part.

[BamaOsFan]

They were hitting their spots in 2014 and not in 2015. I think that was a bigger part of the problem.

I can't count the number of times we had the hitter with 2 strikes and lost them with a base hit or walk. Time after time.

[weams]

I can't count the number of times we had the hitter with 2 strikes and lost them with a base hit or walk. Time after time.

We need someone who can do better. Not hope the same folks do better.

[mdbdotcom]

2014 ERA FIP

Tillman 3.34 4.01

Ublado 4.81 4.67

Norris 3.65 4.22

Chen 3.54 3.89

Gonzo 3.23 4.89

Gausman 3.57 3.41

2015 ERA FIP

Tillman 4.99 4.45

Ubaldo 4.11 4.01

Norris 7.06 5.64

Chen 3.34 4.16

Gonzo 4.91 5.01

Gausman 4.25 4.10

I think the defense certainly played a large part.

Ubaldo was the only one whose FIP improved.

[Can_of_corn]

2014

156 dp

2015

134 dp

[Can_of_corn]

Ubaldo was the only one whose FIP improved.

Ubaldo is the only one who had a higher ERA then FIP in 2014. In 2015 only Chen and Gonzo had a higher FIP, with Chen being the only one to beat it by any real margin (probably due to his BAA with runners on).

[mdbdotcom]

2014

156 dp

2015

134 dp

How about ground ball rates?

[Can_of_corn]

How about ground ball rates?

More work then I am willing to do.

I don't think you can deny that with Hardy hurt and hobbled and Schoop missing half the year (and looking less sharp then 2014) the infield defense wasn't near as good.

I'm not saying that none of the decline was on the pitching just that a lot of the "luck" was the defense.

[mcgraw238]

Combo...Starting rotation posted a sub 3 ERA post-All Star break in 2014. I never expected that to be the norm.

[mdbdotcom]

More work then I am willing to do.

I don't think you can deny that with Hardy hurt and hobbled and Schoop missing half the year (and looking less sharp then 2014) the infield defense wasn't near as good.

I'm not saying that none of the decline was on the pitching just that a lot of the "luck" was the defense.

I don't disagree.

[SilverRocket]

How about ground ball rates?

Team GB% was 45.2% in 2015 and 43.8% in 2014, according to fangraphs.

Tillman, Ubaldo, Miguel and Gausman all had increases in GB% of at least 2.9%, with Ubaldo raising it from 41.3% to 49.1%.

Norris had a decrease of 1.8%, and Chen a decrease of 0.5%.