MLBTR predicts 4/64m for Matt Wieters

[24fps]

You dodged the question. Who do you think the O's can sign that will hit 20 homers and 80 RBIs?

I am on the fence on Wieters. But I don't see a first basemen or an outfielder that will hit 20 and 80 that the O's are likely to sign.

Steve Pearce is fully capable of doing both. Based on 2013-2015 BBRef has his 162 game production at 28 HR and 70 RBI. If Wieters actually is going to get around $16 million, Pearce at one-third the cost is a reasonable alternative if you're only talking offense.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm afraid it doesn't work that way.

Process is irrelevant to most fans. It's all about the results, no matter how unlikely, or on what kind of ill-advised monstrosity of a contract.

[DrungoHazewood]

You dodged the question. Who do you think the O's can sign that will hit 20 homers and 80 RBIs?

I am on the fence on Wieters. But I don't see a first basemen or an outfielder that will hit 20 and 80 that the O's are likely to sign.

Matt Wieters hit 20 homers and drove in 80 runs in 2012. That's the only time he's met your thresholds. Since then he's been hurt for over a year, and last season he had his lowest power numbers since 2010. He'll be 30 next year, past likely peak. I'd say the odds are against Matt Wieters himself giving the Orioles 20/80 if you resign him.

[wildcard]

Steve Pearce is fully capable of doing both. Based on 2013-2015 BBRef has his 162 game production at 28 HR and 70 RBI. If Wieters actually is going to get around $16 million, Pearce at one-third the cost is a reasonable alternative if you're only talking offense.

Highly unlikely. Pearce has been in the majors for 9 years. He will be 33 soon after the season starts next year. He has never had more than 338 at bat or 49 RBI in a season. To project him for 20/80 is really hoping for more than he is likely to deliver.

[VeveJones007]

Of course you give him a QO if you have to. The only reason to put it in the press that you might not is to try and get Boras to agree to a 1 year deal at a lower price tag. If he doesn't bite, then throw out the QO.

[DrungoHazewood]

Steve Pearce is fully capable of doing both. Based on 2013-2015 BBRef has his 162 game production at 28 HR and 70 RBI. If Wieters actually is going to get around $16 million, Pearce at one-third the cost is a reasonable alternative if you're only talking offense.

Pearce is a decent low-risk candidate at his likely price point. But it's a little disingenuous to say he's "fully capable" of hitting 20 homers and driving in 80 runs (or some other more meaningful metrics/thresholds) since he's 32 years old and has never remotely approached that combination in his MLB career.

[24fps]

Highly unlikely. Pearce has been in the majors for 9 years. He will be 33 soon after the season starts next year. He has never had more than 338 at bat or 49 RBI in a season. To project him for 20/80 is really hoping for more than he is likely to deliver.

Unlikely? Perhaps. I don't know how highly though, I think you're selling him short. Not to mention overestimating Wieters' production. But if 20/80 is the arbitrary target, I know I would much rather gamble $5 million on Pearce hitting 20/80 than $16 million on Wieters especially if I had an extra $11 million to cover any shortfall from Pearce.

[wildcard]

I didn't dodge the question, I pointed out that it was misleading. The Orioles don't need one 20/80 guy to more than replace Wieters' production, as Joseph/Clevenger will be replacing the majority of that production anyway. If that $15 million nets them Scott Kazmir, that's a better use of the money.

Not sure that is true. Take Kazmir out of Oakland's big park and its not that pretty. Moved him to Houston and his ERA went over 4.00. In the last 5 years only 2014 shows a road ERA under 4.00. I not sure that Camden Yards is a good park for him and therefore giving him 15m is probably not as good as giving it to Wieters.

Not that I am sold on signing Wieters.

[wildcard]

Unlikely? Perhaps. I don't know how highly though, I think you're selling him short. Not to mention overestimating Wieters' production. But if 20/80 is the arbitrary target, I know I would much rather gamble $5 million on Pearce hitting 20/80 than $16 million on Wieters especially if I had an extra $11 million to cover any shortfall from Pearce.

Signing Wieters does not keep the O's from signing Pearce. Just don't expect Pearce to hit 20/80.

[UpstateNYfan]

4/64 is a lot of money for a likely max 120 game catcher. In the likely event that Davis will not sign with the O's, is it possible or acceptable for the O's to have a tandem of Pearce/Wieters at 1st base, Wieters/Joseph/Clevenger catching and a Wieters/Pearce/Clevenger at DH? It certainly gives lefty/righty balance. I assume Wieters could play at least acceptable 1st base. Could the combinations of these 4 players over the season approach what the O's got from those 3 positions last year? Is it a ridiculous idea? It seems affordable and in a couple of years Joseph or Wieters could be traded if Cisco develops.

[Redskins Rick]

I wasn't suggesting that they give Kazmir $15mm. Just saying I'd rather give it to him than Wieters, given our catching situation.

Okay, I buy that, sorry, since you took the trouble to name the guy, I thought that was your thoughts, my mistake.

As much as I like Matt, I too am in the agreement, to spend his money elsewhere on the team.

[DrungoHazewood]

Signing Wieters does not keep the O's from signing Pearce. Just don't expect Pearce to hit 20/80.

I hope you're not expecting either the Orioles to sign Wieters, or Wieters to hit 20/80. I'd say the odds of the former are about 10%, and the latter no better than 1-in-3.

[mdbdotcom]

Not sure that is true. Take Kazmir out of Oakland's big park and its not that pretty. Moved him to Houston and his ERA went over 4.00. In the last 5 years only 2014 shows a road ERA under 4.00. I not sure that Camden Yards is a good park for him and therefore giving him 15m is probably not as good as giving it to Wieters.

Not that I am sold on signing Wieters.

Fine, then give it to Cueto.

[wildcard]

Matt Wieters hit 20 homers and drove in 80 runs in 2012. That's the only time he's met your thresholds. Since then he's been hurt for over a year, and last season he had his lowest power numbers since 2010. He'll be 30 next year, past likely peak. I'd say the odds are against Matt Wieters himself giving the Orioles 20/80 if you resign him.

Being a little picky. I will take 22/79 like he did in 2013.

I think the O's will have to get Wieters some at bats at 1B or DH so he does not kill his legs at catching but he has a decent chance of returning to 20/80. The question is who else could the O's acquire that has as good a chance to hitting 20/80?

[wildcard]

Fine, then give it to Cueto.

Before or after his arm falls off?