The Royals Are Not Analagous

[FanSince88]

I've seen lots of chatter about how we don't need starting pitchers anymore, we just need to build a dominant bullpen, "like the ROYALS did, YEAH!"

Here's two reasons why that analogy breaks down

1) The Royals had an opportunistic offense that could consistently score runs. We either score runs in bunches with the HR or not at all. If you're down 5-0 in the 7th inning, your bullpen is not going to save you.

2) You do need some baseline level of competence in your starting rotation for the Royals strategy to work. It's a very real possibility that we get the 2015 Gonzo, 2015 Tillman, 2014 Ubaldo, and 2015 Gausman next year. If that's the production we get out of the current 4 starters, we are completely screwed, I don't care how good the bullpen is.

Trade Britton, sign one or two real freaking starters, or try to convert Britton to a starter.

[mdbdotcom]

I've seen lots of chatter about how we don't need starting pitchers anymore, we just need to build a dominant bullpen, "like the ROYALS did, YEAH!"

Here's two reasons why that analogy breaks down

1) The Royals had an opportunistic offense that could consistently score runs. We either score runs in bunches with the HR or not at all. If you're down 5-0 in the 7th inning, your bullpen is not going to save you.

2) You do need some baseline level of competence in your starting rotation for the Royals strategy to work. It's a very real possibility that we get the 2015 Gonzo, 2015 Tillman, 2014 Ubaldo, and 2015 Gausman next year. If that's the production we get out of the current 4 starters, we are completely screwed, I don't care how good the bullpen is.

Trade Britton, sign one or two real freaking starters, or try to convert Britton to a starter.

1) How they score runs has nothing to do with how they prevent the opposition from scoring runs.

2) If Tillman Gonzo, and Gausman step up, it won't matter what other starter we add. If they do, having three guys in the rotation who don't pitch more than five innings a game might work out well.

[Frobby]

I don't believe there is any particular formula for winning, other than outscoring the other team. The Royals aren't necessarily our model just because they've been in the WS the last two years.

That said, I don't think your premise that the Royals had an opportunistic offense that could consistently score runs has any real validity. The Royals outscored the Orioles by 11 runs last season. Here's a breakdown in terms of runs scored in each game.

0: Royals 11, O's 12

1: Royals 15, O's 16

2: Royals 23, O's 24

3: Royals 22, O's 20

4: Royals 18, O's 22

5: Royals 20, O's 18

6: Royals 15, O's 18

7: Royals 13, O's 7

8+: Royals 25, O's 25

I see minimal difference in terms of consistently scoring runs.

I also don't see a big difference in terms of "baseline competence" of the starting pitchers. The Royals' starters had a 4.34 ERA, ours were 4.53.

All that said, I don't think I have seen any poster who has claimed that we don't need to have significantly better starting pitching in 2016 to be a serious playoff contender. Just look at our starters' performance last four years:

2012: 4.42 ERA (9th)

2013: 4.57 ERA (12th)

2014: 3.61 ERA (5th)

2015: 4.53 ERA (14th)

Obviously, we were much better in 2012 and 2014, the two years we made the playoffs. (The 4.42 from 2012 wasn't great, but the league ERA was 4.39 that season compared to 4.14 in 2015.)

I think we need the four returning starters, as a group, to do better in 2016 than they did in 2015. We also need a solid replacement for Chen. No, I don't think Vance Worley and a good bullpen will do the trick. Our bullpen was good already.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't believe there is any particular formula for winning, other than outscoring the other team. The Royals aren't necessarily our model just because they've been in the WS the last two years.

That said, I don't think your premise that the Royals had an opportunistic offense that could consistently score runs has any real validity. The Royals outscored the Orioles by 11 runs last season. Here's a breakdown in terms of runs scored in each game.

0: Royals 11, O's 12

1: Royals 15, O's 16

2: Royals 23, O's 24

3: Royals 22, O's 20

4: Royals 18, O's 22

5: Royals 20, O's 18

6: Royals 15, O's 18

7: Royals 13, O's 7

8+: Royals 25, O's 25

I see minimal difference in terms of consistently scoring runs.

I also don't see a big difference in terms of "baseline competence" of the starting pitchers. The Royals' starters had a 4.34 ERA, ours were 4.53.

All that said, I don't think I have seen any poster who has claimed that we don't need to have significantly better starting pitching in 2016 to be a serious playoff contender. Just look at our starters' performance last four years:

2012: 4.42 ERA (9th)

2013: 4.57 ERA (12th)

2014: 3.61 ERA (5th)

2015: 4.53 ERA (14th)

Obviously, we were much better in 2012 and 2014, the two years we made the playoffs. (The 4.42 from 2012 wasn't great, but the league ERA was 4.39 that season compared to 4.14 in 2015.)

I think we need the four returning starters, as a group, to do better in 2016 than they did in 2015. We also need a solid replacement for Chen. No, I don't think Vance Worley and a good bullpen will do the trick. Our bullpen was good already.

Misconceptions, meet facts.

[weams]

I really don't understand why people on this board continue to talk about this stupid team. Just pretend they don't exist. They're horrible, dream-killing people.

I pretty much agree with your feelings here.

[ChicagoTerp]

I think we need the four returning starters, as a group, to do better in 2016 than they did in 2015. We also need a solid replacement for Chen. No, I don't think Vance Worley and a good bullpen will do the trick. Our bullpen was good already.

This.

I think it's somewhat fair to compare our starters from last year to the Royals'. But when you consider the fact that we are losing our best starter, something needs to be done. Chen needs to be replaced, and not with Tim Lincecum or Cliff Lee. Kazmir makes the most sense to me.

[Number5]

I don't believe there is any particular formula for winning, other than outscoring the other team. The Royals aren't necessarily our model just because they've been in the WS the last two years.

That said, I don't think your premise that the Royals had an opportunistic offense that could consistently score runs has any real validity. The Royals outscored the Orioles by 11 runs last season. Here's a breakdown in terms of runs scored in each game.

0: Royals 11, O's 12

1: Royals 15, O's 16

2: Royals 23, O's 24

3: Royals 22, O's 20

4: Royals 18, O's 22

5: Royals 20, O's 18

6: Royals 15, O's 18

7: Royals 13, O's 7

8+: Royals 25, O's 25

I see minimal difference in terms of consistently scoring runs.

I also don't see a big difference in terms of "baseline competence" of the starting pitchers. The Royals' starters had a 4.34 ERA, ours were 4.53.

All that said, I don't think I have seen any poster who has claimed that we don't need to have significantly better starting pitching in 2016 to be a serious playoff contender. Just look at our starters' performance last four years:

2012: 4.42 ERA (9th)

2013: 4.57 ERA (12th)

2014: 3.61 ERA (5th)

2015: 4.53 ERA (14th)

Obviously, we were much better in 2012 and 2014, the two years we made the playoffs. (The 4.42 from 2012 wasn't great, but the league ERA was 4.39 that season compared to 4.14 in 2015.)

I think we need the four returning starters, as a group, to do better in 2016 than they did in 2015. We also need a solid replacement for Chen. No, I don't think Vance Worley and a good bullpen will do the trick. Our bullpen was good already.

So the whole key is to have more games where we score exactly seven runs? :laughlol:

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

I don't believe there is any particular formula for winning, other than outscoring the other team. The Royals aren't necessarily our model just because they've been in the WS the last two years.

That said, I don't think your premise that the Royals had an opportunistic offense that could consistently score runs has any real validity. The Royals outscored the Orioles by 11 runs last season. Here's a breakdown in terms of runs scored in each game.

0: Royals 11, O's 12

1: Royals 15, O's 16

2: Royals 23, O's 24

3: Royals 22, O's 20

4: Royals 18, O's 22

5: Royals 20, O's 18

6: Royals 15, O's 18

7: Royals 13, O's 7

8+: Royals 25, O's 25

I see minimal difference in terms of consistently scoring runs.

I also don't see a big difference in terms of "baseline competence" of the starting pitchers. The Royals' starters had a 4.34 ERA, ours were 4.53.

I'm not sure that the OP worded it right.. Is there not merit in contrasting the offensive styles? The interesting thing about the Royals is, I feel like they are anti money ball. They foul pitches off and make a pitcher work and then they put pressure on with their aggressive base running (they can do this because they are an athletic team). For us, I think about a guy like Adam Jones who thrives off of sending out mistake pitches. Things ratchet up in the playoffs, he is looking for those pitches and they aren't there as much.

I really do think the approaches are worth contrasting and there is something to the Royals offensive approach/philosophy/talent versus ours and how it plays out in the playoffs and tight situations.

[Uli2001]

There's a small rumor that Markakis could be traded to the Royals (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/quick-hits-2018-19-braves-burton-offseason.html).

The Markakis-Moustakas duo? Or tongue-twister?

Winning has always been about having a big 1-2-3 at the TOR. Any bullpen suddenly becomes much better.

[MDtransplant757]

KC just hits and they are more momentum based and spontaneous, where as we're more methodical.

[Uli2001]

KC just hits and they are more momentum based and spontaneous, where as we're more methodical.

They also put together hits, whereas the O's scatter them. You may score the same amount of runs and win more games if you can have more big innings. It makes your pitching more effective pitching with bigger leads.

[JLee2027]

Anyone who scores 6.7 runs a game by hitting 3 times the expected number of homers should win the playoffs.

That's what KC did.

[MDtransplant757]

They also put together hits, whereas the O's scatter them. You may score the same amount of runs and win more games if you can have more big innings. It makes your pitching more effective pitching with bigger leads.

Yeah. that's why they did so well, but will they do well without Gordon, Rios and when all those guys leave, or will it take 30 years for them to do well again

[wildcard]

Trade Britton, sign one or two real freaking starters, or try to convert Britton to a starter.

Looks like the O's are in the bidding for Gallardo and Kazmir. A fall back position is to trade for a starter or convert Britton to a starter. Converting Britton to a starter is by far the cheapest way to go.

[weams]

Convert Britton to a starter. Converting Britton to a starter is by far the cheapest way to go.

Dan says he won't do it. Zach says he can't do it. He would have needed to know before now. Just what they say. Have no Idea what they do.