WAR, What is it good for?

[Redskins Rick]

[video=youtube;w8leCzrO9_U]

[weams]

I perceive. Therefore, it is.

[Larry18]

WAR is the best stand alone metric for estimating a player's value. It's far from perfect but it beats using batting average as the standard bearer.

[brianod]

It is well that war is so terrible, otherwise, we would grow too fond of it

Robert E Lee

[Phantom]

WAR is the best stand alone metric for estimating a player's value. It's far from perfect but it beats using batting average as the standard bearer.

This. It is the best at what it does. The fact that we need to qualify every stat with "it isn't perfect" is ridiculous in the world that used pitching wins and ERA and fielding percentage for a century.

[25 Nuggets]

..if I had a nickel for every reference made to Edwin Starr' song that I've seen...

...I'd put them in a bag, take them to the bank and be mildly richer.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Question about WAR: does it take into account when certain stats (a run batted in, steal whatever) occur? I would think it should, as a player that has a knack for hitting homers late in close games is more valuable than someone that only hits homers against mop up relievers up or down by 5 runs.

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WAR makes no account for these things because overall it has been shown that professional players do not have a knack for such things, and that things like RBIs are too influenced by situation. There are stats that track Clutch situations if you'd be interested.

Win Probability Added (WPA) is a good one.

[survivedc]

Win Probability Added (WPA) is a good one.

Good to know, I'll look into that one.

I'd like to check out Davis' numbers for 2013, I remember reading an SI article about how many of his rbis and homers came after the 7th or in a tie game etc.

[DrungoHazewood]

Win Probability Added (WPA) is a good one.

Yea, but then you have to figure out if WPA for batters really means anything, or shows you anything above WAR that isn't random.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Good to know, I'll look into that one.

I'd like to check out Davis' numbers for 2013, I remember reading an SI article about how many of his rbis and homers came after the 7th or in a tie game etc.

I believe he led the AL that season.

[weams]

I believe he led the AL that season.

He hit a ton of them. Massively strong man.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Yea, but then you have to figure out if WPA for batters really means anything, or shows you anything above WAR that isn't random.

Right. I kind of like to just have both, though, to acknowledge that there are things lurking in the error term of WAR. I don't think runs or RBI have much predictive value, but I like having them in the toolbox of stats, though, as they are a record of actual in-game scoring, rather than a model-bases expectation.

[survivedc]

I believe he led the AL that season.

Yep looks like it, also tied for the highest WPA in the past 10 years

[DrungoHazewood]

Right. I kind of like to just have both, though, to acknowledge that there are things lurking in the error term of WAR. I don't think runs or RBI have much predictive value, but I like having them in the toolbox of stats, though, as they are a record of actual in-game scoring, rather than a model-bases expectation.

I like Tom Tango's characterization of WPA as a storytelling stat. Someone with an extreme WPA has to have some great (or awful) stories behind the numbers. But the leap from stories to skills is not really supported by much. Chris Davis is a good hitter, and good hitters often come through in big situations. Chris Davis doesn't necessarily have super powers in the clutch.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I like Tom Tango's characterization of WPA as a storytelling stat. Someone with an extreme WPA has to have some great (or awful) stories behind the numbers. But the leap from stories to skills is not really supported by much. Chris Davis is a good hitter, and good hitters often come through in big situations. Chris Davis doesn't necessarily have super powers in the clutch.

Good way to look at it.