Is the "mortgaging the future" argument valid and/or fair?

[Can_of_corn]

You are entitled to your opinion, but before the team blew up in August, they were still a contender, in spite of their problems.

Which would be your opinion.

Kinda odd to say that what I said was opinion than state your own as fact.

[Redskins Rick]

Which would be your opinion.

Kinda odd to say that what I said was opinion than state your own as fact.

Okay, fair enough, it is my own opinion, I freely admit that, but I dont think I am in the minority.

[Can_of_corn]

Okay, fair enough, it is my own opinion, I freely admit that, but I dont think I am in the minority.

Menshevik, Bolshevik, does it make any difference?

[Redskins Rick]

Menshevik, Bolshevik, does it make any difference?

Nope, in the overall grand scheme of things.

At least they wasn't mathematically out of it, on May 31st.

[StottyByNature]

I disagree on the equilibrium point Dan has set. He is, imo, overly concerned with the present over the future. This situation is exacerbated when he makes pushes (Parra) when the team isn't actually a viable contender.

That's a fair point. Parra wasn't really a needle-mover and our pitching last year didn't seem like it would hold up. I think this year is a different story.

I must admit, when I first heard about us dealing this draft pick my immediate reaction was negative. However, after thinking about it this might be a move to get ahead of a new trend. I would bet that most teams overvalue draft picks because of the excitement of the unknown. Perhaps Dan is testing the waters to see if he can exploit this.

[Can_of_corn]

That's a fair point. Parra wasn't really a needle-mover and our pitching last year didn't seem like it would hold up. I think this year is a different story.

I must admit, when I first heard about us dealing this draft pick my immediate reaction was negative. However, after thinking about it this might be a move to get ahead of a new trend. I would bet that most teams overvalue draft picks because of the excitement of the unknown. Perhaps Dan is testing the waters to see if he can exploit this.

Could be, I will continue to believe he has no concern over how the team performs after he leaves until presented with strong evidence to the contrary.

[LookitsPuck]

For the objective observer, the argument will become valid when the current strategy actually produces the doom that the doomsayers prophesy.

Pretty much.

And when we've seen organizations have a farm system routinely at the bottom of the league coupled with a major league roster with talent that is either departing (Machado, Jones 2018) and/or aging (Davis, O'Day, etc.) coupled with contract expirations of the 2 most important non-player staff members (GM, Manager)...it's not looking good at all. It's actually looking quite disastrous.

There's no pillow of endless 1st round picks to go off of. Nor 2nd rounders. We've given up a number of our 1st rounders over the last few years (Gallardo, Ubaldo), comp picks (3 of them in the Norris, Webb and Matusz trades) and what little meaningful depth we had in the minors (example: ERod), we traded away for rentals that we never intended to resign the following year.

It's just a bad way to set the organization up for future success. All of the focus is on the now. There's no organization building going on here. We stockpile the farm system with old/aging "prospects" which really end up being organizational filler.

We sign players like Urrutia, Alvarez out of Cuba attempting to herald them as something (anything!) but most saw through that.

We wait until the last possible minute to sign players. We ignore medical results even when 1st round picks are on the line.

This club SHOULD be able to run a successful farm system AND sign their young talent due to a payroll approaching mid $100m.

I'll give Duquette credit for keeping this club winning. But it just seems so temporal. Sustained success should be the goal here (like the Cardinals).

[mcgraw238]

Nope, in the overall grand scheme of things.

At least they wasn't mathematically out of it, on May 31st.

I hope the franchise does not use mathematical elimination as the indicator of whether to buy/sell. That will simply lead to poor decisions. I disliked the Parra move when made but, on the other hand, had no problem with the Andrew Miller acquisition.

[Can_of_corn]

Pretty much.

And when we've seen organizations have a farm system routinely at the bottom of the league coupled with a major league roster with talent that is either departing (Machado, Jones 2018) and/or aging (Davis, O'Day, etc.) coupled with contract expirations of the 2 most important non-player staff members (GM, Manager)...it's not looking good at all. It's actually looking quite disastrous.

There's no pillow of endless 1st round picks to go off of. Nor 2nd rounders. We've given up a number of our 1st rounders over the last few years (Gallardo, Ubaldo), comp picks (3 of them in the Norris, Webb and Matusz trades) and what little meaningful depth we had in the minors (example: ERod), we traded away for rentals that we never intended to resign the following year.

It's just a bad way to set the organization up for future success. All of the focus is on the now. There's no organization building going on here. We stockpile the farm system with old/aging "prospects" which really end up being organizational filler.

We sign players like Urrutia, Alvarez out of Cuba attempting to herald them as something (anything!) but most saw through that.

We wait until the last possible minute to sign players. We ignore medical results even when 1st round picks are on the line.

This club SHOULD be able to run a successful farm system AND sign their young talent due to a payroll approaching mid $100m.

I'll give Duquette credit for keeping this club winning. But it just seems so temporal. Sustained success should be the goal here (like the Cardinals).

Very strong post.

I don't often have the patience to put together something so comprehensive.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

Parra wasn't really a needle-mover....

Exactly.. How much of the future was really mortgaged for Parra? Maybe Davies turns into something.. He wasn't a big prospect even with decent MiL numbers. Two of the biggest prospects we had to give up were for Bud Norris and Andrew Miller. Both played huge roles in 2014 and gave us a shot at the World Series.

I understand as a whole we can list off prospects Dan has traded, but for the most part he has avoided giving up our best guys while trying to maintain a winning roster. Eduardo Rodriguez is the one I miss the most, but I don't fault DD for bolstering our team for a World Series run.

[sportsfan8703]

I think this is a very smart comment. Dan didn't manage the Expos in a traditional fashion. He set the Red Sox up to win the World Series. He has raised the O's out of the dirt into contention in most years.

Dan is an out of the box thinker. Rarely do we see posts like yours.

I agree with this too. DD is willing to give up mid level and low level assets to help the MLB team. He does this because he's really good at manufacturing that kind of asset. Whether it's through trades, the rule 5 draft or milb FA signings.

Let's take the 76th pick for example. A team like the Braves wants that pick because they want to have as many eggs in the basket to land All stars. More than likely that pick will end up being a reliever, utility IF/OF type at best. But that adds to their chances of hitting a HR. Right now we've hit a HR with our roster and are in win now mode.

Maybe my logic is a little off, but that's how I see it. I don't think DD is perfect but he's probably the best GM in baseball that would take our job. Plus Buck is the best manager.

[LC_O's_87]

Pretty much.

And when we've seen organizations have a farm system routinely at the bottom of the league coupled with a major league roster with talent that is either departing (Machado, Jones 2018) and/or aging (Davis, O'Day, etc.) coupled with contract expirations of the 2 most important non-player staff members (GM, Manager)...it's not looking good at all. It's actually looking quite disastrous.

There's no pillow of endless 1st round picks to go off of. Nor 2nd rounders. We've given up a number of our 1st rounders over the last few years (Gallardo, Ubaldo), comp picks (3 of them in the Norris, Webb and Matusz trades) and what little meaningful depth we had in the minors (example: ERod), we traded away for rentals that we never intended to resign the following year.

It's just a bad way to set the organization up for future success. All of the focus is on the now. There's no organization building going on here. We stockpile the farm system with old/aging "prospects" which really end up being organizational filler.

We sign players like Urrutia, Alvarez out of Cuba attempting to herald them as something (anything!) but most saw through that.

We wait until the last possible minute to sign players. We ignore medical results even when 1st round picks are on the line.

This club SHOULD be able to run a successful farm system AND sign their young talent due to a payroll approaching mid $100m.

I'll give Duquette credit for keeping this club winning. But it just seems so temporal. Sustained success should be the goal here (like the Cardinals).

I dunno. Prophesying is a pretty inexact science.

I always like this quote, "If you can look into the seeds of time and say which grain will grow and which will not speak then to me."

[sportsfan8703]

Farm system rankings are way overrated and I view them like recruiting rankings in NCAA football and basketball. Your ranking changes dramatically depending on what team you're on. The media has a bias.

We have a ton of homegrown players on our team, as that other thread pointed out. Plus we have legit options to replace our FA's after this year(Trumbo, MW, Pedro Alvarez, Reimold).

I just don't see how we're producing better from within but DD is destroying the system. And we're doing all this in the AL East and not the NL central.

[Can_of_corn]

Farm system rankings are way overrated and I view them like recruiting rankings in NCAA football and basketball. Your ranking changes dramatically depending on what team you're on. The media has a bias.

We have a ton of homegrown players on our team, as that other thread pointed out. Plus we have legit options to replace our FA's after this year(Trumbo, MW, Pedro Alvarez, Reimold).

I just don't see how we're producing better from within but DD is destroying the system. And we're doing all this in the AL East and not the NL central.

The NL Central, the division that had three teams win at least 97 games last year?

That NL Central?

[Malike]

We had a lousy farm system when we stunk, and we have a lousy farm system while we're pretty good. I'll enjoy the winning while it lasts. If the Orioles have shown us anything, even with 6 first round picks they can't make the farm any better. They've been consistently bad in this area for ages.

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