Is the "mortgaging the future" argument valid and/or fair?

[bpilktree]

It seems to me that with every trade the Orioles have made since DD arrival, a certain contingent among us have cried that we have mortgaged the team's future. At what point does this argument start lacking validity as it comes to a general overview of DD and the moves he has made? We've been competitive every year since his arrival, no? What constitutes "the future" in this argument/narrative?

Also, at what point does the whole "DD is working with the team MacPhail put together" narrative also fail?

I don't think people that have been used to loosing understand that good teams have to make trades to stay on top and they use the minor leaguers to fill those holes. We have been so bad for years some fans forget that. Yesterday i pointed out how many home grown players were on current teams pitching staff and it was just about 25% and the Orioles had the most home grown pitchers in the American League by three pitchers That was also from comming from one of the weaker farm systems per those so called experts. If you look at teams you see lots of guys that have been traded in the minors now doing well for other teams.

If you want to stay competitive in today's game you are going to have to trade prospects at times and make moves plain and simple. Some of those moves maybe a bit of a gamble but you have to trust your scouts and make a decision. Like this trade everyone is blaming Dan even though probally not one person on here has seen those two pitch and Dan might not as well. However someone in our organization had to have seen them and thinks they could be good pickups so Dan has to trust them. It is not like he just looked at a roster and said yeah ill take those two guys because they have cool names.

[LC_O's_87]

I would say if they go 7 seasons without a losing season, I can deal with mortgaging the future. How many losing seasons in a row did we have when we weren't mortgaging the future.

Bingo! That would be 14 losing seasons in a row.

I'd also argue that buying other teams' minor league depth with lottery tickets and bonus money for 16 year old kids is not going lead to abject failure, doom, gloom, misery and another 1998-2011 run.

But hey, what do I know. I'm just a guy on a message board.

[wildcard]

I would say if they go 7 seasons without a losing season, I can deal with mortgaging the future. How many losing seasons in a row did we have when we weren't mortgaging the future.

Maybe DD has figured out how to win long-term without the regular method of building a team..

I think this is a very smart comment. Dan didn't manage the Expos in a traditional fashion. He set the Red Sox up to win the World Series. He has raised the O's out of the dirt into contention in most years.

Dan is an out of the box thinker. Rarely do we see posts like yours.

[StottyByNature]

I think the blueprint for success is out there. It is more difficult for teams to have sustained runs of success because you can't build through free agency like the Yankees used to do. In the steroid era, players remained good well into their 30's. That is not the case anymore. Now, you have to be like the Cubs, Nats or Royals. You spend a few seasons losing but stockpiling talent and then you make your run when you get a chance. We currently have the opportunity to make a run, and when this window closes we either need to rebuild around Machado/Davis. Perhaps one or both gets traded to help jumpstart the talent rebuild. I am OK with this cycle as long as there is a plan.

[Can_of_corn]

I think the blueprint for success is out there. It is more difficult for teams to have sustained runs of success because you can't build through free agency like the Yankees used to do. In the steroid era, players remained good well into their 30's. That is not the case anymore. Now, you have to be like the Cubs, Nats or Royals. You spend a few seasons losing but stockpiling talent and then you make your run when you get a chance. We currently have the opportunity to make a run, and when this window closes we either need to rebuild around Machado/Davis. Perhaps one or both gets traded to help jumpstart the talent rebuild. I am OK with this cycle as long as there is a plan.

Do you think Dan has anything in place for after he leaves the team?

[wildcard]

Do you think Dan has anything in place for after he leaves the team?

What makes you think he is leaving?

[LC_O's_87]

What makes you think he is leaving?

Narrative.

[Can_of_corn]

What makes you think he is leaving?

He has already tried to leave once.

[bpilktree]

Do you think Dan has anything in place for after he leaves the team?

Yeah i would since he has 3 guys that are in the rotation that are young guys with 5 to 6 more years of control. He has a potential ace in Gausman and if they resign Tilman a solid number 2. They seem very high on Bundy and although results are not there he has been healthy and i have seen an increase in the fastball to 94-95 the last two outings. He has a young Chance Sisco they think can take over at catcher for the future. They have some young talent in Mancini and Walker that can hopefully take over for Trumbo and Alverez. They seem to like Rickard as a young leadoff guy. Oh and they have Machado who maybe the best player in the game and Schoop young players to be the core along with Davis.

[Ohfan67]

I wish the Orioles had a better minor league system. I wish the system was full of studs that the national baseball media were all gaga over.

That said, Baseball America's (and other publications) ranking of minor league systems is a very poor indicator of the ML team's future success. This article summarizes many studies http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/baseballs-best-farm-systems-how-much-do-they-matter/. Those rankings do a pretty good job of predicting future WAR of the top 100 farm hands, but are terrible at predicting future wins of the ML team. Many, many WAR have to come from non-elite prospects and free agents for teams to win (that's basically the bottom line of those analyses). You may think DD is nuts, but he seems very focused on maximizing wins from those type of players. Results (ML wins) suggest he has done an excellent job, despite some screw ups.

Years ago Frobby generated, IMO, one of the best (and simplest) analyses of the importance of MiL systems. If my memory serves, Frobby calculated the number of average and above average ML'ers a minor league system generated for ML teams that "consistently" won. If you look at the Orioles roster, then it's clear that the minor league system has directly and indirectly (via trades) produced more ML players than past national rankings of MiL systems would indicate. As screwed up as the Orioles have been and maybe are still, the MiL system has produced more players in the last five - seven years than it did probably in the previous fifteen or even more years. The Orioles have a lot of home grown (directly and indirectly) players that are contributing.

DD clearly has a different approach to prospects. His approach is definitely not the current paradigm. It will be interesting to see what the system produces in the next few years as the O's seek to maximize current wins and produce players for the ML team.

[MdSooner]

Exactly.

I am not assuming that the sons will necessarily follow the father in their decisions.

I hope that Angelos when he does die gives his son(s) a better opportunity to keep the team. Jack Kent Cook? of the redskins gave his boy very little opportunity to keep the team

That was a travesty. I also had friends in the construction business back then and Cook cheated them. He was not a very nice man

[Redskins Rick]

I hope that Angelos when he does die gives his son(s) a better opportunity to keep the team. Jack Kent Cook? of the redskins gave his boy very little opportunity to keep the team

That was a travesty. I also had friends in the construction business back then and Cook cheated them. He was not a very nice man

inheritance taxes hurt his chances back then.

Cooke bequeathed a total of $47,750,000 in cash and trusts to family members, friends, and employees in his will. The amount is federally taxed at 55 percent for the first $20 million and at 60 percent above that, according to the tax code.

[StottyByNature]

Do you think Dan has anything in place for after he leaves the team?

I think that's kind of the point, when a team has a shot at winning the GM's job is not necessarily to build for the future. Obviously, you want him to do it where possible, but you also want him to give the team the best shot at winning it all. I think the next guy, assuming Dan leaves, will have major assets in Machado, Davis, Schoop and Gausman. He can decide whether to try to build with them or trade them for young talent while building through the draft. Teams generally don't draft multiple stars in the latter half of the first round.

My point is outside of these specific trades. I don't know whether the pick or the two minor leagues guys are more valuable.

[Can_of_corn]

I think that's kind of the point, when a team has a shot at winning the GM's job is not necessarily to build for the future. Obviously, you want him to do it where possible, but you also want him to give the team the best shot at winning it all. I think the next guy, assuming Dan leaves, will have major assets in Machado, Davis, Schoop and Gausman. He can decide whether to try to build with them or trade them for young talent while building through the draft. Teams generally don't draft multiple stars in the latter half of the first round.

My point is outside of these specific trades. I don't know whether the pick or the two minor leagues guys are more valuable.

I disagree on the equilibrium point Dan has set. He is, imo, overly concerned with the present over the future. This situation is exacerbated when he makes pushes (Parra) when the team isn't actually a viable contender.

[Redskins Rick]

I disagree on the equilibrium point Dan has set. He is, imo, overly concerned with the present over the future. This situation is exacerbated when he makes pushes (Parra) when the team isn't actually a viable contender.

You are entitled to your opinion, but before the team blew up in August, they were still a contender, in spite of their problems.