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How about Jon Niese


webbrick2010

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Ubaldo has been [choose-pretty/very/extremely] bad.

Niese has also been [choose-pretty/very/extremely] bad, along with experiencing knee discomfort this past week.

I'd don't want any [pretty/very/extremely] bad pitchers in our rotation. We should look elsewhere.

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That's fine, you're a stat guy. I like stats too, but not as an absolute authority. I've seen too many supposedly good NL pitchers over the years come to the AL (specifically the East) and get lit up, and I've seen marginal guys in the AL go to the NL and have success. I think it's a combination of things, no DH, bigger, pitcher friendlier ballparks, overall less robust lineups, etc.

Weighted OBP is a pretty basic stat as baseball stats go. It's black and white, unlike the WAR discussion above.

If you want to make it about the eye test, fine. How many NL Central games have you watched this year? I've seen enough of the Cards and Cubs to know that those lineups would be two of the best in the AL, while the Yankees and Rays aren't very good regardless of league.

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Weighted OBP is a pretty basic stat as baseball stats go. It's black and white, unlike the WAR discussion above.

If you want to make it about the eye test, fine. How many NL Central games have you watched this year?

But weighted OBP is only a partial picture. Unlike WAR.

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After trading Neil Walker to get Niese in the offseason, the Pirates have just shifted Niese to the bullpen. He's not a solution to get us into the playoffs, and we certainly should be trying to add another SP in addition to him, but he is a lefty SP with a solid track record and a small price tag. IMO he's a better buy-low trade target than many others, including the Pirates than Liriano, and here's why:

Contract: 1yr / 9MM, Options for 10MM & 11MM next two seasons, buyout 0.5MM each season

-He's going to come cheap in trade as a salary dump for the rest of this season, but doesn't have any large commitments beyond that. If somehow a switch flips in the second half and he returns to pre-2016 form, he's still controllable at modest prices.

Effectiveness vs. LHP:

-He's held LH batters to a better line than RH batters over the course of his career, as you would expect, but not by a huge margin (.264/.322/.409 to .271/.344/.424).

-If he doesn't do well as a SP after a few starts, he should still be a much better lefty reliever than anybody else we currently have on the team. In the playoffs, if we happen to make them, he could be the starter bumped to the 'pen and give us an additional lefty arm.

Ground Balls:

-Niese has a career 50.3% GB rate and is still very high even in this terrible season at 53.3%. That's huge playing in front of our defense and in OPACY.

-The force driving his awful numbers is a highly anomalous HR/FB% at 22.7%. His career rate is 12.1%, right around league average. Overall he's had a career 0.97 HR/9 rate but this season is crazy high at 1.77.

Altogether, Niese is a good target right now ahead of the deadline, to plug Ubaldo's gaping hole in the rotation and then be able to focus on an upgrade as the deadline approaches. We know DD has been on the phone with PIT already about Liriano and he's traded with them in the past for Snider, so I wouldn't be surprised to find Niese on the Orioles in short order.

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After trading Neil Walker to get Niese in the offseason, the Pirates have just shifted Niese to the bullpen. He's not a solution to get us into the playoffs, and we certainly should be trying to add another SP in addition to him, but he is a lefty SP with a solid track record and a small price tag. IMO he's a better buy-low trade target than many others, including the Pirates than Liriano, and here's why:

Contract: 1yr / 9MM, Options for 10MM & 11MM next two seasons, buyout 0.5MM each season

-He's going to come cheap in trade as a salary dump for the rest of this season, but doesn't have any large commitments beyond that. If somehow a switch flips in the second half and he returns to pre-2016 form, he's still controllable at modest prices.

Effectiveness vs. LHP:

-He's held LH batters to a better line than RH batters over the course of his career, as you would expect, but not by a huge margin (.264/.322/.409 to .271/.344/.424).

-If he doesn't do well as a SP after a few starts, he should still be a much better lefty reliever than anybody else we currently have on the team. In the playoffs, if we happen to make them, he could be the starter bumped to the 'pen and give us an additional lefty arm.

Ground Balls:

-Niese has a career 50.3% GB rate and is still very high even in this terrible season at 53.3%. That's huge playing in front of our defense and in OPACY.

-The force driving his awful numbers is a highly anomalous HR/FB% at 22.7%. His career rate is 12.1%, right around league average. Overall he's had a career 0.97 HR/9 rate but this season is crazy high at 1.77.

Altogether, Niese is a good target right now ahead of the deadline, to plug Ubaldo's gaping hole in the rotation and then be able to focus on an upgrade as the deadline approaches. We know DD has been on the phone with PIT already about Liriano and he's traded with them in the past for Snider, so I wouldn't be surprised to find Niese on the Orioles in short order.

Maybe so. Wouldn't mind having him on the team.

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After trading Neil Walker to get Niese in the offseason, the Pirates have just shifted Niese to the bullpen. He's not a solution to get us into the playoffs, and we certainly should be trying to add another SP in addition to him, but he is a lefty SP with a solid track record and a small price tag. IMO he's a better buy-low trade target than many others, including the Pirates than Liriano, and here's why:

Contract: 1yr / 9MM, Options for 10MM & 11MM next two seasons, buyout 0.5MM each season

-He's going to come cheap in trade as a salary dump for the rest of this season, but doesn't have any large commitments beyond that. If somehow a switch flips in the second half and he returns to pre-2016 form, he's still controllable at modest prices.

Effectiveness vs. LHP:

-He's held LH batters to a better line than RH batters over the course of his career, as you would expect, but not by a huge margin (.264/.322/.409 to .271/.344/.424).

-If he doesn't do well as a SP after a few starts, he should still be a much better lefty reliever than anybody else we currently have on the team. In the playoffs, if we happen to make them, he could be the starter bumped to the 'pen and give us an additional lefty arm.

Ground Balls:

-Niese has a career 50.3% GB rate and is still very high even in this terrible season at 53.3%. That's huge playing in front of our defense and in OPACY.

-The force driving his awful numbers is a highly anomalous HR/FB% at 22.7%. His career rate is 12.1%, right around league average. Overall he's had a career 0.97 HR/9 rate but this season is crazy high at 1.77.

Altogether, Niese is a good target right now ahead of the deadline, to plug Ubaldo's gaping hole in the rotation and then be able to focus on an upgrade as the deadline approaches. We know DD has been on the phone with PIT already about Liriano and he's traded with them in the past for Snider, so I wouldn't be surprised to find Niese on the Orioles in short order.

I like his FB rate. But concerned about the HR/9 spike. I did notice his pitch pattern from previous years is different. He is throwing way more FB and reduced his CB by 50%. Is that the Pirates or him? He still would not be one of my top LHP options. So I would wait a little.

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