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at. YANKEES, 10/01


Sessh

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    • It will be a bitter pill to swallow if we end up a couple games worse than NYY and this tabulator imagines they got 50 net runs of help. Sig Mejdal would probably be only to happy to do some pro bono case preparation on behalf of Rob Manfred and David Rubenstein. I do kind of think if/when robo-umps come, Orioles bats may enjoy a short-term preparedness advantage.
    • Mayo and Basallo are the only non-Boras, non-pitchers who will debut at a young enough age that you’d be buying out free agent years before age 30. As much as I’d like to extend Gunnar, Holliday etc., I think those are the most likely candidates. But they have such big question marks about the defensive value they will provide that it might be pretty hard finding the right number. You don’t want to be paying them as a 3B/C when they end up a 1B/DH. And I also don’t expect to Orioles to do an extension before they get some MLB exposure under their belts. Just this year, the Keith and Rafaela extensions are looking really rough and showing the risks to that approach, and I’m going to assume the Orioles will remain very risk averse to guaranteed money until proven otherwise. 
    • After last night's brutal hose job from Laz Diaz, the Orioles are now last in the league in TotFav.  We've lost almost 8 net runs to umpire mistakes this season.  
    • There are quite a few occasions in MLB history of teams taking the right path and the wrong path. Early contracts have risk but by far greatest reward. Atlanta Braves have locked up most of there stars. Acuna, Olsen, Albies, Riley, Strider, Murphy, Harris. Its cost them money up front but will be massive savings down the road. Acuna on the open market would net 50 million per year for over 14 years. They are paying him 12.5 million per season. There are teams like the Nationals who let Harper, Soto, Turner all walk because of ownership and not early intervention. People were saying it was stupid for Juan Soto to turn down Nats contract. He will get more this offseason for sure. Also the Nats were in that situation because they had talks 1.5 years left on the contract.    Contract order for me would go Gunnar-by far number 1, already comparable deal with Witt Jr. Has to get done, Has to be lifelong Oriole Westburg- Not something crazy but buying out arbitration years something like 7-8 years 80-100 million Bradish-something that pays off arbitration and pays 2-3 years free agency. Burnes- Frontloaded contract where first 4 years are majority of pay. Most of our payroll increase comes in 4 years when Adley hits free agency.    I would continue to monitor Holiday.   Adley is a wait and see. He will be a 30 year old catcher. Have to see how Basallo progresses in next year.
    • Ex-post, the missed third strike on Siani was the most impactful mistake--it put the game out of reach.  I think that UmpireScorecards measure "impact" ex-ante--at the time of the mistake (before the next pitch), which mistake led to a bigger change in the expected number of extra runs scored going forward?  I think Siani was still 1-2 after the mistake, so ex ante it was not likely that he would have a successful at bat even after the blown call.  While I think Gorman was 3-2, so it was more likely that he would have a productive at bat after the blown call.  
    • People have been waiting a month and a half to turn him back into the whipping boy.
    • Before even getting into ballpark dimensions and quality of talent, PCL teams often play at altitude (Reno, Vegas, Salt Lake, El Paso, Albuquerque) and several others are in Texas (Houston, Round Rock) which makes the ball fly. 
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