Would You Trade Chris Davis in a Salary Dump

[Il BuonO]

In fact his name came up a lot.

Right, but ownership loyalty to a player is an important tactic in evaluating talent.

[weams]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bryce Harper's WAR dropoff from 2015 to 2016 (-8.3) is the largest ever for a reigning MVP, per <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo">@ESPNStatsInfo</a>. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Nationals?src=hash">#Nationals</a></p>— Eddie Matz (@ESPNeddiematz) <a href="

">October 8, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Evidently, it was something that was not going to improve with a few months rest.

[weams]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bryce Harper's WAR dropoff from 2015 to 2016 (-8.3) is the largest ever for a reigning MVP, per <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo">@ESPNStatsInfo</a>. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Nationals?src=hash">#Nationals</a></p>— Eddie Matz (@ESPNeddiematz) <a href="

">October 8, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Evidently, it was something that was not going to improve with a few months rest.

[Frobby]

The player (he gets more money, but the team can spend more to surround him with talent), the manager/GM (same thing, more talent now, so a false projection of the abilities of the manager/GM right now), and even the owner (he may not even live long enough to see that money spent). But it dumps a lot of that money down the road, so long after the players, manager, and GM are gone, we?ll still be fans of a team playing for players of yesteryear. It could be fine if it was the right player at the right price, but I worry about the moral hazard and inappropriate agency relationship. It?s like walking into a car dealership knowing that a person that you?ve never met will get the bill for your car. You have an incentive to get the most expensive one and not negotiate down the price. So the cost is higher and inappropriate for what it would if it was your own money. Similarly, when you split a check down the middle with a group of friend at a restaurant, you are all incentivized to get the most expensive thing, because marginally you pay very little for it. So you all pay more.

I also don?t like gerrymandering structured contracts for NFL players. I think that every year the GM and coach/manger/players should feel the brunt of money that they are earning (or players are earning) against the payroll/cap.

The team is required to escrow most of the deferred money currently, so the moral hazard probably isn't as great as you think.

[Moose Milligan]

I think a lot of you guys overlook his defense. No one overlooks Manny's defense. But no one seems to point out that Davis has saved a lot of off target Manny throws over the years.

[BarclaySouthway]

I think the last 3 years of this deal are going to be a real disaster, so I would be in favor of moving him whenever they can get a decent return. And that time is not now.

Maybe his 2017 looks more like his 2015 than this year. That would be the time to get out from under the $135 million we will owe him for his ages 32-36 seasons. Of course if that happens, ownership will try to squeeze another year out of him. So it's a bit of a Catch-22 (with what our current philosophy seems to be, that is).

We'll probably have to kick in some money no matter what. There are some late-career Adam Dunn type seasons coming up I fear, and I'd rather not see them.

[Frobby]

So you believe Manny Machado will get $55 million/year if he hits free agency tomorrow? Because he's averaged 6.8 WAR in his last three full seasons.

As I said earlier in the thread, the relationship between WAR and salary is not linear. The guys at the top of the WAR scale don't tend to get $8 mm/WAR. A lot of guys in the 1-2 WAR range get more than $8 mm/WAR. Take all the salary paid to all the free agents, and divide it by the WAR they produced the previous year, and the average comes to $8 mm/WAR.

[weams]

As I said earlier in the thread, the relationship between WAR and salary is not linear. The guys at the top of the WAR scale don't tend to get $8 mm/WAR. A lot of guys in the 1-2 WAR range get more than $8 mm/WAR. Take all the salary paid to all the free agents, and divide it by the WAR they produced the previous year, and the average comes to $8 mm/WAR.

You can't pay for production at that level. You won't get it. Even if it were for Mike Trout. If you believe there is no TV money, bubble, you might just go chasing it.

[ChuckS]

I think a lot of you guys overlook his defense. No one overlooks Manny's defense. But no one seems to point out that Davis has saved a lot of off target Manny throws over the years.

First base is relatively an easy position to play. It's not hard to find an adequate guy that can pick the ball.

The one thing Chris does really well for a first baseman is clearing the runner and throwing the ball to second in force out plays and double plays. As a picker and fielding ground balls he is average IMO.

[Moose Milligan]

First base is relatively an easy position to play. It's not hard to find an adequate guy that can pick the ball.

The one thing Chris does really well for a first baseman is clearing the runner and throwing the ball to second in force out plays and double plays. As a picker and fielding ground balls he is average IMO.

I guess we aren't watching the same game then. He's a gold glove caliber defender. Extremely agile and quick, especially for a big man.

[Frobby]

I guess we aren't watching the same game then. He's a gold glove caliber defender. Extremely agile and quick, especially for a big man.

He's certainly a much more agile defender than Ryan Howard, which is why his value isn't likely to sink as low as Howard's and the comparison of his contract to Howard's is probably inapt. But I wouldn't want to be paying $21 mm/yr (discounted value with deferrals) for a sub-.800 OPS 1B just because his defense is above average.

[ChuckS]

I guess we aren't watching the same game then. He's a gold glove caliber defender. Extremely agile and quick, especially for a big man.

I'm not saying he's not a good defender. I just think there are a lot of guys out there who can play first and not give you a huge drop off.

First base is just not as important defensively as pretty much any other position on the diamond. Hence why a lot of teams have their slowest/least athletic player at that position.

[Mitch Connor]

Can someone explain when we offer a $154 million contract, that Davis won't accept and we pull and then say ok, lets make it $160 million+ seem like good negotiation skills from us? We seem to overpay on a lot on contracts.

[weams]

Can someone explain when we offer a $154 million contract, that Davis won't accept and we pull and then say ok, lets make it $160 million+ seem like good negotiation skills from us? We seem to overpay on a lot on contracts.

That' not exactly how it worked either. The deferred money came as part of that reworked package.

[Can_of_corn]

That' not exactly how it worked either. The deferred money came as part of that reworked package.

The actual value is probably very similar.

It just looks more impressive.