Make your best offer to Chris Tillman

[atomic]

11 hours ago, clapdiddy said:

I would offer a 4 year deal broken down like this:

2017 - 11M

2018 - 15M

2019 - 18M

2020 - 20M

So...a 4/64 deal.   

The 4 year deal would start in 2018. 

[scOtt]

I just posted that I think Tillman could be signed for 4/52-56. Could be... I'd go to 4/70 if it came down to it. He's not an ace but he's our ace. An Oriole. In a way he's more important than Manny.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, scOtt said:

I just posted that I think Tillman could be signed for 4/52-56. Could be... I'd go to 4/70 if it came down to it. He's not an ace but he's our ace. An Oriole. In a way he's more important than Manny.

Interesting thought.    In 2012, the team was hovering slightly above .500, then took off shortly after Tillman joined the rotation.   He had very good seasons in 2014 and 2016, the two other times we made the playoffs.    In 2015 he had an off-year, and it was the team's worst year of the five since he joined the rotation for good.   I can't say there's cause and effect there, but no doubt he's been a big contributor to all of our playoff teams.   Manny had a big role in turbocharging the final two months of 2012, but the team played great without him in the final two months of 2014.

I don't actually think Tillman is as important to the team as Manny, but he's pretty darned important on a team that struggles to put together a solid rotation.  

[Bradysburns]

On 1/13/2017 at 4:26 PM, Frobby said:

Sure.   Per BB-ref, Tillman has been worth 13.6 rWAR as an Oriole, having topped 4 WAR a couple of times.   If you buy into that, then 5/80 mm is a good deal.     Fangraphs, on the other hand, relies heavily on FIP to calculate fWAR, and says Tillman had only been worth 10.3 WAR in his career and has never had a season worth more than 2.4 WAR.    If you buy that, then 5/$80 mm for Tillman is a pretty bad risk.     

Thanks - your answer prompted me to do some reading. It sounds like fWAR pings Tilly for not striking out a lot of guys, and giving up homers. Makes sense. I think that speaks to the lack of consistent dominance I was talking about. He's really good. But he rarely dominates. At the same time, he's pretty durable, a good clubhouse presence, and he's got veteran unflappability. If they signed him to 5/80, I wouldn't be sad. But that'd be a rich deal for him - I think it would be a slight overpay. But pitching is just so darned important.

As another poster mentioned, the development of Gausman and Bundy this year will be huge in determining Chris's relative value to the team.

[25 Nuggets]

here's my best offer:

hope he likes it.

[tntoriole]

I would offer 5/80 extension for a very short window during the spring and see if he signs.... 

[El Gordo]

4/64M with an option for 5 at 17.

[scOtt]

On 1/14/2017 at 7:20 AM, Frobby said:

Interesting thought.    In 2012, the team was hovering slightly above .500, then took off shortly after Tillman joined the rotation.   He had very good seasons in 2014 and 2016, the two other times we made the playoffs.    In 2015 he had an off-year, and it was the team's worst year of the five since he joined the rotation for good.   I can't say there's cause and effect there, but no doubt he's been a big contributor to all of our playoff teams.   Manny had a big role in turbocharging the final two months of 2012, but the team played great without him in the final two months of 2014.

I don't actually think Tillman is as important to the team as Manny, but he's pretty darned important on a team that struggles to put together a solid rotation.  

I'm just of the mind of pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching. Manny is great but we have other sluggers.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, scOtt said:

I'm just of the mind of pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching. Manny is great but we have other sluggers.

Not who play 3B like he does.   The pitching doesn't look as good without Manny.  

[weams]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not who play 3B like he does.   The pitching doesn't look as good without Manny.  

Well then sign them both. Bet you can't.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, weams said:

Well then sign them both. Bet you can't.

My money is on neither.

[weams]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

My money is on neither.

Oh, you can sign Chris. It might not be smart. You can't sign Manny. 

Wed'sday just don't go
Thursday goes too slow
He's got Friday on his mind
 

[ChuckS]

I'm letting him go to a free agency for a few reasons. 

1. The FA class of 2018 is fairly deep. 

2. We don't know what our rotation will look like after this season.  There is a possibility we are sellers at the trade deadline and are in rebuild mode for 2018.  

3.  The development of Gausman and Bundy at the big league level and Sedlock and Akins at the minor league level could make spending big money on Chris Tillman less necessary.  

Right now the best I would be willing to offer is 4/70 on an extension.  I don't think he takes that. 

[backwardsk]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

Oh, you can sign Chris. It might not be smart. You can't sign Manny. 

Wed'sday just don't go
Thursday goes too slow
He's got Friday on his mind
 

Of course you can sign Manny, keep the payroll in a $150-180M range, and field a competitive team.

[weams]

Just now, backwardsk said:

Of course you can sign Manny, keep the payroll in a $150-180M range, and field a competitive team.

What number is it. 400 / 10 -  500 12? Which one tempts him.