I might have to backpeddle on my Posey thought . . .

[crawdad]

I ran some numbers last night to see what Wieters would have to do to make himself worth more as a 1B playing 150g as opposed to a catcher playing 120g. The only place this made sense was if all we could get for 1B was replacement level production (333obp/420slg) and if we had an average catcher (322/403) to replace Wieters there. At that point he would have to be pretty good. Make a line between .315obp/.580slg to .450obp/.375slg. That is the break even point.

This afternoon or evening, I'll post the study on my blog.

[markpolis]

I ran some numbers last night to see what Wieters would have to do to make himself worth more as a 1B playing 150g as opposed to a catcher playing 120g. The only place this made sense was if all we could get for 1B was replacement level production (333obp/420slg) and if we had an average catcher (322/403) to replace Wieters there. At that point he would have to be pretty good. Make a line between .315obp/.580slg to .450obp/.375slg. That is the break even point.

This afternoon or evening, I'll post the study on my blog.

Good stuff. Also, I was wondering why you (and Stotle) were pushing for Posey and moving Wieters to 1B (at this point in his career) when you both argue that 1B is the least important defensive position? Wieters has gold glove potential at C. At 6'5" I know there aren't many good comp's for Wieters, but I have to believe he has 5-6 years in him at the catching position.

Based on the numbers, who would you like to see the Orioles draft if Alvarez, T-Bex and Posey are gone by the 4th pick? Would you go with Smoak, even though he plays 1B?

[crawdad]

Good stuff. Also, I was wondering why you (and Stotle) were pushing for Posey and moving Wieters to 1B (at this point in his career) when you both argue that 1B is the least important defensive position? Wieters has gold glove potential at C. At 6'5" I know there aren't many good comp's for Wieters, but I have to believe he has 5-6 years in him at the catching position.

Based on the numbers, who would you like to see the Orioles draft if Alvarez, T-Bex and Posey are gone by the 4th pick? Would you go with Smoak, even though he plays 1B?

From my end, I thought if Wieters offense was good enough . . . those 30 lost games from having to take breaks would wind up wasting his value. Good defense is kind of overplayed for catchers and everyone knows 1B doesn't take advantage of good defense (about 2 wins a year difference between worst and best 1B with regard to the glove). What I did not realize is just how good Wieters would have to be.

So, Weiters should be shifted to 1B as long as he gets injured too much at catcher, we can't find anything above replacement level for a 1B, and his hitting is so good that he is a perennial all star with the bat at first.

[Stotle]

From my end, I thought if Wieters offense was good enough . . . those 30 lost games from having to take breaks would wind up wasting his value. Good defense is kind of overplayed for catchers and everyone knows 1B doesn't take advantage of good defense (about 2 wins a year difference between worst and best 1B with regard to the glove). What I did not realize is just how good Wieters would have to be.

So, Weiters should be shifted to 1B as long as he gets injured too much at catcher, we can't find anything above replacement level for a 1B, and his hitting is so good that he is a perennial all star with the bat at first.

I agree with this, but you also need to take into account the greater likelihood of an extended injury at catching, meaning the chances of Wieters having an 80 game season are drastically increased with him at C as opposed to 1b.

My point with selecting Posey is that there are legit reasons for doing it if and only if Jordan and Co. have him listed as the best player on the board at 1:4. Accordingly, there is a case to be made for shifting Wieters off of C if Posey is selected and his offense is strong enough to play at 1b/dh.

[allstar1579]

My take is, if Wieters is putting up 30 HR, it's great production and all, but we could add a 1B in this draft to put up similar numbers (Alvarez, Smoak, Hosmer) while still keeping that 30HR in the lineup at C. Give him 5-6 years behind the plate an then think about drafting a hotshot C then, or better, take a couple projects later and see if they develop.

Moving him to a new position that we don't even know if he would play well at, before he takes a swing in the majors is fixing something that ain't broke, to coin a phrase. I'm not saying to discount Posey as a possibility, his bat is for real, but between the two, Posey has demonstrated the ability to play other positions before he was drafted while maintaining good average and bat control. The question is, if we move him to 1B or 3B, does he project much different from Snyder, who is supposed to be a former C, who's status was higher because of his position, and later moved to a Corner INF spot because his bat is supposed to be great for average, but not that much power.

[Sports Guy]

Can't we just use Posey at SS??

[markpolis]

Can't we just use Posey at SS??

No. His range is too limited at SS. If we are going to switch him to SS we may as well draft Tim Beckham (if available) or Gordon Beckham.

If Posey were still playing SS he would be projected to go in the middle of the first round. He's projected so high because the combination of skills and he projects to be a gold glove caliber catcher.

[allstar1579]

No. His range is too limited at SS. If we are going to switch him to SS we may as well draft Tim Beckham (if available) or Gordon Beckham.

If Posey were still playing SS he would be projected to go in the middle of the first round. He's projected so high because the combination of skills and he projects to be a gold glove caliber catcher.

Well said. If you are drafting him with the intention of moving him from Catcher, you have to figure that in before you take him and slot him accordingly. For instance, if you move him to SS, he comes in behind both Beckhams (although Stotle might argue me about Gordon). If you put him at 1B, he comes in behind Hosmer, Smoak, Alvarez, Alonso, and maybe another one or two. At 3B he is behind Alvarez and probably another player or two. Long story short he is a 8-15 draft pick at another position, and top 6 as a C.

[Stotle]

Well said. If you are drafting him with the intention of moving him from Catcher, you have to figure that in before you take him and slot him accordingly. For instance, if you move him to SS, he comes in behind both Beckhams (although Stotle might argue me about Gordon). If you put him at 1B, he comes in behind Hosmer, Smoak, Alvarez, Alonso, and maybe another one or two. At 3B he is behind Alvarez and probably another player or two. Long story short he is a 8-15 draft pick at another position, and top 6 as a C.

Naw, I agree with you. He'd be behind Gordon -- around 17-20. Gordon should be 12-16.

[RLB29]

Well said. If you are drafting him with the intention of moving him from Catcher, you have to figure that in before you take him and slot him accordingly. For instance, if you move him to SS, he comes in behind both Beckhams (although Stotle might argue me about Gordon). If you put him at 1B, he comes in behind Hosmer, Smoak, Alvarez, Alonso, and maybe another one or two. At 3B he is behind Alvarez and probably another player or two. Long story short he is a 8-15 draft pick at another position, and top 6 as a C.

Although I would rather have Alvarez/Smoak/Matuza, what if we trade Roberts for a SS among others and draft Posey for 2B? He seems to be a Craig Biggio type player.

[rhall]

Although I would rather have Alvarez/Smoak/Matuza, what if we trade Roberts for a SS among others and draft Posey for 2B? He seems to be a Craig Biggio type player.

As far as being an athletic catcher who can hit, that comp isn't too far off, but Posey isn't nearly the runner that Biggio was.

[crawdad]

It is up now if you want to look at it.

[markpolis]

It is up now if you want to look at it.

As always, good stuff.

[allstar1579]

Although I would rather have Alvarez/Smoak/Matuza, what if we trade Roberts for a SS among others and draft Posey for 2B? He seems to be a Craig Biggio type player.

Not a bad idea, but it depends on what kind of 2B you are looking for. He is more Howie Kendrick than Craig Biggio. Think high average, little pop, not a whole lot of steals. If you are looking for an on base guy for leadoff and not a speed guy, then yeah its a heck of an idea. The only hangup would be seeing if he can play 2B. There are already statistics out there from him playing SS, OF, and C where he showed over a long period that he can sustain with the bat and hold his own in the field, sometimes a player has a hard time making the backwards transition from SS to 2B, but I think he could do it.

If we had a guy to hit leadoff (an outside SS perhaps), then put Posey at 2B and hitting second, with Markakis 3rd and Wieters 4th, it could be a great start to the lineup.