ESPN: Harper vs. Machado

[Spy Fox]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did you guess evaluator four?  I was shocked.

I'm not surprised Manny was preferred, because he was better last year and people have short memories. But if I hadn't seen the 6-1, I would have expected Manny to win by a smaller margin.

I'm surprised nobody they asked had a better argument for Harper. #4 was his only supporter and most of what they said ("he's slightly younger" and "he's been an MVP and handled the pressure") isn't that relevant.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Harper has to be more consistent if he is ever to be considered the better player, you can't go from OPS+ 111- 2014, 198 -2015 and 116 last year.  And defensively there is no comparison. 

[El Gordo]

 “Harper gets credit and gets a huge part of his reputation for how far he hits home runs, but they still only count for one run,” one evaluator told Olney. “Machado is an entire field hitter who hits to the situation. He can hammer majestic homers, but can also do other things to help a team win.”

[Number5]

This reminds me of the Mantle/Mays arguments when I was a kid.  Every team would be happy to build a team around either one.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

He does make some dumb decisions on the bases but overall he's considered average. 

He made several mistakes last year.   I would not say he's done that chronically every year.    I don't expect it to be a recurring issue.  

[DrungoHazewood]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

And you could have made a very strong case for Harper.  He was coming off a massive season.

I wonder where an 8.3 rWAR drop ranks historically?

That's not an easy query with the play index... Bobby Murcer dropped from 8.1 to 5.1 to 1.0 in three years.  Norm Cash 9.2 to 3.7 in one year.  Ted Williams dropped over 10, but had the war to thank for that.  Lou Boudreau went from 10.4 to 3.1.  Snuffy Stirnweiss fell from 8.7 to 2.7 from '45-46.  Cal fell from 11.5 to 4.0 from '91-92. George Sisler was 8.7 in 1922, then missed a year with an eye problem and when he came back in '24 was worth 0.3 wins.  Beltre went 9.5 to 3.2. Lenny Dykstra went -0.2, 8.9, 3.1 in consecutive years.  If the record isn't Harper's he's close.

If you want to include pitchers, especially 19th century guys, you can get all kinds of wacky.  Pud Galvin threw 636 innings the year the UA stole a bunch of regular players a few years after the AA went major and stole a bunch of other players and put up a 20.5 rWAR season, the all-time record.  The next year he was worth 1.8. Dwight Gooden followed up his 12.1-win '85 with a 4.4-win '86.  From 1887 to 1888 Toad Ramsey went from 8.2 wins to -3.5.  In 2009-10 Zack Greinke went from 10.4 to 3.4.  Smoky Joe Wood 10.4 to 3.0.  

And your ultra-obscure 19th century reference of the day... Mike Smith, sadly not Mississippi Mike or Texas Mike, was a 19-year-old worth over 10 wins for the Reds in 1887.  The next year he fell off to 4.4, and his entire career was worth 12.6.

[25 Nuggets]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

This reminds me of the Mantle/Mays arguments when I was a kid.  Every team would be happy to build a team around either one.

Mike Trout is the reincarnate of Mickey Mantle.  But his contract was handled quite differently.  I don't see Harper on that level - like the rest say, not as much consistency.  Your point is still valid.

The only guy I can think of that compares to Machado is Adrian Beltre.  Both amazing defenders who started age 19.  Machado is clearly the better hitter in the early career stage though, and better than Brooks Robinson as well.

[weams]

 "Not really all that close for me. Machado has much better swing and approach. He hits good pitching; the other guy does not. Machado is a better defender at a position that is tougher to find. Harper has swing flaws that have been exposed in every year except 2015, and I am not buying he was injured last year."

[DrungoHazewood]

One more collapse guy... In the old National Association Ross Barnes was a big star.  That carried over to the first year of the National League in 1876.  He led the league in pretty much everything except homers, he hit .429 and led in OBA, SLG, OPS, TB, 2B, 3B, walks, and scored 129 runs in a 66-game schedule.  He led the league with 6.0 rWAR in those 66 games, or the equivalent of about 13 WAR in a modern schedule.

After the season the league outlawed the fair-foul hit.  Previously a ball that hit in fair territory but then rolled foul was fair, even before it got to the 1b or 3b bags.  Barnes was apparently quite good at this, maybe bunting balls right down the line that would roll over towards the benches.  

Without his primary weapon he fell to 0.1 rWAR in 1877.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, weams said:

 "Not really all that close for me. Machado has much better swing and approach. He hits good pitching; the other guy does not. Machado is a better defender at a position that is tougher to find. Harper has swing flaws that have been exposed in every year except 2015, and I am not buying he was injured last year."

I do think he was injured last year.    Still, I'm not expecting him to replicate 2015.

[Es4M11]

20 hours ago, El Gordo said:

If you regard Manny as a potential SS as I do then there's no question in my mind.

I think Manny is more valuable at 3B, in terms of defense, than at SS. Manny is an above average SS (who, in my opinion, plays too deep in the hole), but he is the best 3B the MLB has seen in a while. How many extra base hits does Manny eliminate at SS? How many doubles has Machado eliminated at 3B?

 

Manny is not a game changer in the field at SS. He is at 3B, though...

[big_sparxx]

I know it may be silly, but I like to look at it like this. If they swapped positions, who'd be better at it?

I don't think there is ANY comparison.

[Frobby]

Now fangraphs has gotten into the act - vote early and often!

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/bryce-harper-or-manny-machado/

[Moose Milligan]

2nd to last year of seeing Manny in an Orioles uniform, guys.  Enjoy it while it lasts. 

[MDtransplant757]

19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

2nd to last year of seeing Manny in an Orioles uniform, guys.  Enjoy it while it lasts. 

I hope to heaven they keep him.