Is There A Path to 88 Wins for the O's?

[El Gordo]

Just now, Cumberbundy said:

The Juiced Ball Is Back

New testing suggests the baseball is at least partially responsible for MLB’s huge homer spike

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theringer.com/amp/p/155cd21108bc

The parameters are wide enough to permit a 10 or more varience in batted ball distance.

[accinfo]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I actually hate it when people talk in absolutes about baseball.   So, I pose a simple question:    Assume a starting rotation has a 5.61 ERA over 105 games.    Are the odds that the rotation will have a 3.15 ERA for the rest of the season zero point zero?     No, they're not, because WE ACTUALLY SAW THIS HAPPEN.    THIS DECADE.   TO OUR TEAM.

Do I expect that kind of turnaround from our rotation?   No.   But the odds aren't zero point zero.     

Please don't muddle these arguments with any facts.  I understand why people are skeptical and/or negative.  The last 50 games have been brutal to watch.  However to say there is no chance this group of players can not play better isn't reasonable either.  I have done well in roto leagues trading for players half way through the season that are performing way below their historical averages.  It isn't unreasonable to believe that Kevin Gaueman, Chris Tillman, Manny Machado, and Chris Davis will have much better second halfs of the seasons.  Will that be enough?  I don't know.  It doesn't feel that way right now but it isn't like we are asking them to do things they have not done in the past.  The difference is that I will be rooting for them to have those better halfs and some people who just want to say they are right would rather see things come completely unhinged.  That I don't understand.

[Cumberbundy]

7 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

The parameters are wide enough to permit a 10 or more varience in batted ball distance.

That's a problem, for some, it would seem.

[Cumberbundy]

Good article 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/07/02/mlb-memo-juiced-ball/446409001/

[Cumberbundy]

Rainout that changed the season?

https://www.google.com/amp/deadspin.com/the-orioles-never-recovered-from-that-phantom-rainout-a-1796740502/amp

[O's84]

If one rain out changes the season than your team is incredibly mentally weak. Were just not a good team.

[George Zuverink]

7 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

Is There A Path to 88 Wins for the O's?

Only if they play 180 games this year. 

[25 Nuggets]

4 hours ago, Cumberbundy said:

I think an issue is the baseballs are definitely juiced and we really struggle to miss bats. "Pitching to contact" is becoming life threatening. Degrom hit a 425 ft opposite field HR in Washington, the ball ain't right.

Perhaps the biggest mistake the Orioles front office made was investing their player salary money in legit HR hitters at the expense of contact rate, thinking that power would become a scarce commodity.  They did not foresee this happening.

[Moose Milligan]

6 hours ago, accinfo said:

Please don't muddle these arguments with any facts.  I understand why people are skeptical and/or negative.  The last 50 games have been brutal to watch.  However to say there is no chance this group of players can not play better isn't reasonable either.  I have done well in roto leagues trading for players half way through the season that are performing way below their historical averages.  It isn't unreasonable to believe that Kevin Gaueman, Chris Tillman, Manny Machado, and Chris Davis will have much better second halfs of the seasons.  Will that be enough?  I don't know.  It doesn't feel that way right now but it isn't like we are asking them to do things they have not done in the past.  The difference is that I will be rooting for them to have those better halfs and some people who just want to say they are right would rather see things come completely unhinged.  That I don't understand.

Who here's saying they'd prefer to be right and want to see things come completely unhinged?  

I think everyone here watches practically every game they can and roots for the team.  It's kind of insulting to say that you're better than people who think this team isn't going anywhere.  

[Cumberbundy]

6 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Perhaps the biggest mistake the Orioles front office made was investing their player salary money in legit HR hitters at the expense of contact rate, thinking that power would become a scarce commodity.  They did not foresee this happening.

Seconded

[gmelson26]

11 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Let's not forget whatever crappy 5th starter Dan gets us at the deadline.  

Joe Saunders still in baseball?

[ScGO's]

14 hours ago, Norfolk orioles said:

Gausman has the worst whip in all of baseball for qualified starters.

 

Wade Miley has the second worst whip in all of baseball for qualified starters.

 

If Tillman had enough innings, he'd blow the doors off both of them for worst rotation starter in baseball with a WHIP over 2.

 

Did I mention Ubaldo is our other starter?

 

There is a zero point zero chance this team can string enough quality starts together to become a wild card team. 

I don't even think .500 is realistic with pitching like this.

This is the best thing I've ever read. 

I'd say for the f of it, put Asher and Aquino in the starting rotation and make Tillman and Gausman go to the bullpen and basically say "figure it out or get comfortable out here."   Hell, you'll probably be getting 4 or 5 innings in either scenario.   I'd trade Miley while he's still left-handed for some A level toolsy raw kid that probably won't make it, but at least he's gone and we can call up.......uh............heck, lets see if Keegan Akin can pitch a little down the stretch, if he's overwhelmed, send him right back down, no harm...or maybe you strike gold.  Maybe he goes out and throws about 5 or 6 innings with quality start stuff about 75% of the time.  Maybe one of Aquino and Asher figure it out.  Maybe one of Tillman and Gausman figure it out.  Next thing you know, you got 4 MLB quality starters and Ubaldo. 

Still don't see this team getting to 88 wins.  Only way we get in is if 2nd wild card team gets in with 83 or 84 wins.  We did it with 84 last year.  A scenario like the one above would have to happen.  Maybe Ubaldo gets good again for a couple weeks and everyone starts mashing like the years prior and Givens-Oday-Brach-Britton go Voltron-style and start ending games in the 6th each night.  It could happen, although probability suggests otherwise.  But the probability gods always suggest otherwise when it comes to the O's.  If they do get some momentum, the city needs to get behind it and help this team shape its identity a bit.

 

[O's84]

5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Who here's saying they'd prefer to be right and want to see things come completely unhinged?  

I think everyone here watches practically every game they can and roots for the team.  It's kind of insulting to say that you're better than people who think this team isn't going anywhere.  

I agree with this, the only exception is probably webbrick.

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

 

Still don't see this team getting to 88 wins.  Only way we get in is if 2nd wild card team gets in with 83 or 84 wins.  We did it with 84 last year.  

No we didn't.   We won 89 games last year.

[sportsfan8703]

84 wins has to do it.  The bullpen has to be lights out and shorten games.   That means that Britton, Brach, Givens and O'day have to all have big 2nd halfs.  Plus Bleier and Hart have to keep putting up numbers.  Then it's likely going to take a breakout performance from a guy like Castro and/or Scott.  Manny, Davis, and Trumbo have to all post .850+ OPS's.  

The SP is what it is, but we need to be able to put up some runs and claw our way back some.  I don't expect miracles from the SP, but if they could not be the worst in the AL it would help.  

I could see 84 wins happening.  Especially if we pick up a vet SP or two in July/August.  Plus expanded rosters always help in September.