Grade the Gausman Deal

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Bradysburns said:

You don't think Gausman is talented? Wow. You're a demanding guy. He's put up TWO seasons here with sub 3.70 ERAs with dominant stuff at times. In recent years, he's played behind HORRID defensive teams. And he's doing it all in an organization known for destroying pitchers. I think you greatly underestimate him. 

And comparing him to Jake Arrieta? Forget it. Jake's ERA numbers here were so ridiculous... he was SO bad, so consistently, that yes... of course nobody worried too much when we traded him. 

If Gausman, who wildly outperformed Jake in Baltimore, makes a similar leap in results... we're going to have to rename the Cy Young Award soon. 

I don't think we got fleeced here. But I think we accepted below-value returns. 

I see a guy who throws hard and that's about it.  Sometimes he has games where he can control his breaking pitches but other times not.  Cracks under the slightest bit of pressure or when something doesn't go his way.  

I see a guy who can throw hard, but it's a flat fastball with not a lot of movement.  First round pick, so I think people were going to be more inclined to try to squint a little harder and see greatness.  

He's going to the NL, probably will be better over there.  

[atomic]

2 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

I'd love to see the O's sign VVM, but did they have to make this trade to make that happen?  They already had more slot money than anyone else to throw around.  Getting $2.5 million more in bonus money seems like overkill.  

Encarnacion seems to have the highest ceiling of the guys we got, but a 13/100 K/BB ratio in the Sally League is a major red flag for me.  How many players have succeeded in the major leagues who had such an awful approach at this stage of their careers?   It's hard enough to project guys who have great numbers in the minors--lots of them never pan out.  Aren't the odds even longer when you try to project guys who have major warts in their track record?  

Not impressed by either of today's trades.  Very disappointing after the excellent returns we got for Manny and Zach.  Why make a trade just to make a trade?   

Trying to shed as much salary as possible.  Do Angelo's sons have any type of career or are they just robbing the team of money? 

[LTO's]

10 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

 No one was heartbroken then because Arrieta was struggling. The consensus was “we did what we could, change of scenery, maybe he’s not that great”.

It wasn’t until after that it came out that they had mucked about with his pitches and the Cubs immediately had a great pitcher on their hands that people started blaming the developmental squad. 

All the posters here knew Arrieta had the stuff to be great. He was top prospect for us.

how is that not different if Gausman goes onto great things?

Theyd have a better defense if it wasn’t just Mussina and Bedard in the last 25 years.

OK, so what have the O's done to muck about with Gausman's pitches? He's had two different pitching coaches and has struggled with both. He's peripherals aren't that great this year and Camden Yards is hardly an excuse because he's much worse on the road. Sometimes these guys don't have the makeup to realize their potential 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Lucky_13 said:

C with the possibility of improvement depending on who they sign internationally 

This is what I said... If they get Mesa I’m willing to call it a B.

I think you could deal ODay at next years deadline and get some value if he looks like his old self.

two good but not great prospects, a prospect that had backup or AAAA written all over him and a near ready mediocre relief pitcher. 

 

[Bradysburns]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I see a guy who throws hard and that's about it.  Sometimes he has games where he can control his breaking pitches but other times not.  Cracks under the slightest bit of pressure or when something doesn't go his way.  

I see a guy who can throw hard, but it's a flat fastball with not a lot of movement.  First round pick, so I think people were going to be more inclined to try to squint a little harder and see greatness.  

He's going to the NL, probably will be better over there.  

He may be better, for sure... as in All-Star Game better. 

I wouldn't be surprised in the least. 

But you made a very good point earlier about the slot money. 

You can look at that as money to put into a high-leverage "trade"... signing VVM, or a similarly promising international player. I'm willing to wait and see what we do with that cash before getting TOO disappointed. But I'm feelin' a little underwhelmed at the moment. 

[Bradysburns]

10 minutes ago, atomic said:

It will make the Arrieta trade look good. 

I only repped with the laughing guy because there was no cry-laugh. 

[badmamajama]

11 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

I'd love to see the O's sign VVM, but did they have to make this trade to make that happen?  They already had more slot money than anyone else to throw around.  Getting $2.5 million more in bonus money seems like overkill.  

Encarnacion seems to have the highest ceiling of the guys we got, but a 13/100 K/BB ratio in the Sally League is a major red flag for me.  How many players have succeeded in the major leagues who had such an awful approach at this stage of their careers?   It's hard enough to project guys who have great numbers in the minors--lots of them never pan out.  Aren't the odds even longer when you try to project guys who have major warts in their track record?  

Not impressed by either of today's trades.  Very disappointing after the excellent returns we got for Manny and Zach.  Why make a trade just to make a trade?   

All. Of . This.

I give this a D and the Schoop deal a C. If the Intl $ gets them VVM it jumps to  a C, if not, a F.

I just feel as deep as ATL minor league system is and this was the best they could do even with the Intl $$$'s and DoD's salary.

Edited July 31, 2018 by badmamajama

[Hallas]

33 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well, that assumes you think Gausman is talented.  I really don't.  

All about changing the coaching and development here, though.

It's pretty hard for non-talented pitchers to put up a 4-WAR season, which is what Gausman has done.  It's disappointing that he hasn't been able to build on that, but it's not all potential with him.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Hallas said:

It's pretty hard for non-talented pitchers to put up a 4-WAR season, which is what Gausman has done.  It's disappointing that he hasn't been able to build on that, but it's not all potential with him.

Yeah, if it's not all potential with him then I don't understand how in every spring I keep seeing people saying "Well, if this is the year that Gasuman can put it together..."

[Hallas]

23 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I see a guy who throws hard and that's about it.  Sometimes he has games where he can control his breaking pitches but other times not.  Cracks under the slightest bit of pressure or when something doesn't go his way.  

I see a guy who can throw hard, but it's a flat fastball with not a lot of movement.  First round pick, so I think people were going to be more inclined to try to squint a little harder and see greatness.  

He's going to the NL, probably will be better over there.  

His splitter/change is one of the best offspeed in all of baseball.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=7&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=14,d

He's got more than triple-digit heat.  But of course he'd be an unqualified ace if he got his breaking ball over more.

edit: actually he doesn't need to get it over more, but he needs to be able to throw it where he wants.  Sometimes that means at the batter's shoetops, sometimes that means in the dirt, sometimes that means at the knees.

[Hallas]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, if it's not all potential with him then I don't understand how in every spring I keep seeing people saying "Well, if this is the year that Gasuman can put it together..."

Probably because they see the changeup and fastball and they think he can be Kershaw.  Which I guess is his unrealized potential.  But that's not exactly realistic either.  Not many people can be Kershaw.

[LookitsPuck]

People are Wietersing Gausman. That is, being disappointed in somebody because of original, unrealistic expectations instead of being happy that he was at least productive. 2-4 WAR year in and year out is solid to me.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Probably because they see the changeup and fastball and they think he can be Kershaw.  Which I guess is his unrealized potential.  But that's not exactly realistic either.  Not many people can be Kershaw.

Right, but c'mon man.  You're acting like he's a 4 WAR pitcher each year.  He's had only one year with 4 WAR.  1.2, 1.2, 4, 2.0, 2.3 so far this year.  

[MurphDogg]

2 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

People are Wietersing Gausman. That is, being disappointed in somebody because of original, unrealistic expectations instead of being happy that he was at least productive. 2-4 WAR year in and year out is solid to me.

Yep, he is 16th in WAR among all #4 picks. He will likely end up around #11 when all is said and done. Hardly a bust.

[theocean]

19 minutes ago, badmamajama said:

All. Of . This.

I give this a D and the Schoop deal a C. If the Intl $ gets them VVM it jumps to  a C, if not, a F.

I just feel as deep as ATL minor league system is and this was the best they could do even with the Intl $$$'s and DoD's salary.

Compare Wade Miley's stats to Kevin Gausman's stats prior to when they were traded. Both had two years of control, Miley was 29 and Gausman is 27:

Wade Miley:

2012	25	ARI	NL	16	11	.593	3.33	32	29	0	0	0	0	194.2	193	79	72	14	37	0	144	2	1	6	807	122	3.15	1.182	8.9	0.6	1.7	6.7	3.89	AS,RoY-2
2013	26	ARI	NL	10	10	.500	3.55	33	33	0	0	0	0	202.2	201	88	80	21	66	4	147	4	0	13	847	109	3.98	1.317	8.9	0.9	2.9	6.5	2.23
2014	27	ARI	NL	8	12	.400	4.34	33	33	0	0	0	0	201.1	207	103	97	23	75	3	183	4	0	9	866	86	3.98	1.401	9.3	1.0	3.4	8.2	2.44
2015	28	BOS	AL	11	11	.500	4.46	32	32	0	1	0	0	193.2	201	98	96	17	64	0	147	4	1	10	831	96	3.81	1.368	9.3	0.8	3.0	6.8	2.30
2016	29	SEA	AL	7	8	.467	4.98	19	19	0	1	1	0	112.0	117	62	62	18	34	1	82	3	2	5	469	81	4.76	1.348	9.4	1.4	2.7	6.6	2.41

Kevin Gausman

2014	23	BAL	AL	7	7	.500	3.57	20	20	0	1	0	0	113.1	111	48	45	7	38	0	88	1	0	9	476	110	3.41	1.315	8.8	0.6	3.0	7.0	2.32
2015	24	BAL	AL	4	7	.364	4.25	25	17	1	0	0	0	112.1	109	56	53	17	29	1	103	2	0	7	470	97	4.10	1.228	8.7	1.4	2.3	8.3	3.55
2016	25	BAL	AL	9	12	.429	3.61	30	30	0	0	0	0	179.2	183	76	72	28	47	1	174	5	0	8	757	119	4.10	1.280	9.2	1.4	2.4	8.7	3.70
2017	26	BAL	AL	11	12	.478	4.68	34	34	0	0	0	0	186.2	208	99	97	29	71	0	179	5	1	8	816	94	4.48	1.495	10.0	1.4	3.4	8.6	2.52
2018	27	BAL	AL	5	8	.385	4.43	21	21	0	0	0	0	124.0	139	62	61	21	32	0	104	5	0	6	534	95	4.58	1.379	10.1	1.5	2.3	7.5	3.25

Not that TOTALLY different. Seattle got Ariel Miranda. The O's got much more than Ariel Miranda.