Q.O.A.J.?

[Beef Supreme]

Q.O.A.J.? Assuming that Adam Jones finishes the year with the Orioles, should the team extend the Qualifying Offer to Jones? I think he would reject it, preferring something like a 3/$30-$35MM as long as he has a reasonable commitment of playing @ 140 games per year. The gamble could pay a draft pick dividend. What say you?

[Beef Supreme]

Wish I knew how to submit polls. If weams or Luke would like to clean this up to have a tidy title of "Q.O.A.J?, " I would appreciate it.

[olddogger]

Adam is the face of the team but won't produce at a level commensurate with the Qualifying Offer salary.

[99ct]

I'd extend it. Not because I think he'll be worth the 1-year contract, but because it's worth the gamble to me. Payroll should be lean anyways and having AJ on the team isn't the worst thing in the world. More likely, he rejects it anyways. 

[LocoChris]

I don’t think moving Jones over to a corner outfield spot with Mullins in center is the worst idea. As long as he isn’t blocking anyone. 

[24fps]

Yes.  Oh, hell yes.  It's time to demonstrate once and for all that real baseball decisions should exactly reflect how the most successful fantasy GM's do things.

Next year's entire team budget might be 4X the cost of a single QO.  By all means, let's risk that for a lottery ticket that might - MIGHT - pay off in four years time.  It's a no-brainer, because literally no brain would be in evidence if Adam Jones was offered a QO but who cares?.  It's a prospect.  A PROSPECT!.  Has anything in the history of mankind ever fired the imagination and caused the ruin of otherwise sober men than the thought of a toolsy 18(ish) year-old from Latin America?

I'm surprised that a QO isn't slapped on every Actual Major League Baseball Player with a pulse.  It's not like they have any value except to acquire Maybe-Someday Major League Baseball Players and real GM's don't have think about money anyway because the fans deserve better and if you're not competing for a championship, you should be preparing for one and winning isn't everything, it's the only thing and (pant, pant) just win, baby...

Yeah, no brainer.

[El Gordo]

No he'd take it, and he isn't worth it.

[Malike]

~18M dollars for 0.6 WAR this year? He'd take the QO so fast heads would spin.

[ChosenOne21]

Yeah, I can't imagine he rejects it given his age, skill set, and apparent desire to stay in Baltimore

[tntoriole]

Under no circumstances should they extend a QO to Adam.  It would be Matt Wieters, part 2.   He absolutely would take it because he is going to find that the market out there is not going to be anywhere near what he thinks it is going to be.   And any extension should only be under the most favorable terms to the Orioles (namely under market)- it should be the polar opposite of the situation with Chris Davis- namely, the Orioles should say here is a token offer, if you want it, OK, if not, even better.  

[Frobby]

1.   I think he’d take it.

2.   If he didn’t, I don’t think another team would sign him with the loss of a draft pick attached.   All we’d do is kill his ability to get a decent deal on the FA market.   

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

1.   I think he’d take it.

2.   If he didn’t, I don’t think another team would sign him with the loss of a draft pick attached.   All we’d do is kill his ability to get a decent deal on the FA market.   

That's what we said about Markakis. Baseball is a business, we don't owe Jones anything. #1 is the only relevant consideration and I would be okay with that. If nobody would give up a pick for 3/$30, then we should sign him for 3/$25.

[oriole]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

That's what we said about Markakis. Baseball is a business, we don't owe Jones anything. #1 is the only relevant consideration and I would be okay with that. If nobody would give up a pick for 3/$30, then we should sign him for 3/$25.

Markakis didn't get a QO and I bet if he did he would have taken it. I'd also bet that no one would have signed him had he rejected. I think it's it's a pretty obvious conclusion to make that Jones won't be offered one either. He would take it. I had the understanding for a long time that Jones wanted a ring more than anything but I was wrong, he wants to be comfortable and he is comfortable in Baltimore. 

[Morgan423]

3 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Under no circumstances should they extend a QO to Adam.  It would be Matt Wieters, part 2.   

Not really a similar comparison.  Matt Wieters had .8 WAR the season before we offered it, yes... but he also only played about half a season, so he was on pace for about 1.6 to 1.8 WAR over a full season.  Then, Matt Wieters almost made the QO worth it... the value of the QO is usually somewhere around the league average pay for 2.5 WAR, give or take a hair, and he put up just under 2 in 2016.

Adam is on pace for right around 1 WAR this season, give or take a bit.  I don't see him even coming near approaching QO value next year... and if we offered it to him, I bet he'd take it without hesitation.  Much like Wieters 2017, the team would only offer it once... but it would give him and his family a whole year to get everything wrapped up and ready for the next move.  Looking at his motivations, we definitely should not offer it.  

[99ct]

There are a lot of good arguments in this thread, and I've almost been convinced to vote no. But I still think this is the last chance for AJ to, reasonably likely, get a three year deal somewhere. I also wouldn't really mind having him aboard next year. I imagine we'll overpay by like 6-8m if he accepts.