A Few Questions About Some Former Orioles

[atomic]

9 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

.738 OPS at home. 724 OPS away.

 

Machado's OPS approached .800 as a 19 year old at Bowie. Well deserving of a promotion.

 

I'm in favor of prospects proving they are worthy of being promoted to the next level and not being rushed through because there is no alternative. A 15 game sample size in the majors means nothing compared to the sample size of a whole season.

DJ Stewart didn't hit well in Delmarva and they promoted him and he hit well in Frederick and Bowie. He will be 25 by the time spring training roles around. No reason to hold him back. It is sink or swim time. 

[Enjoy Terror]

On 10/18/2018 at 3:31 PM, Matt Bennett said:

Neither of them deserve promotions. Regardless of whatever Stewart did in a small sample size in Baltimore. He hit atrociously the last two months in Norfolk and thus shouldn’t be in the majors. 

Didn’t Hays have like a .275 OBP at BOWIE? 

I’m curious how you know the difference between a slumping player and a player who lacks the fundamentals to play in the majors. Because I’ve seen Stewart on stretches of great baseball.

Do you think that more time in the minors will help Caleb Joseph? What about Schoop? Schoop was awful for a lot of 2018. What do you think Adam Jones could glean from a AAA demotion? He wasn’t amazing to finish the year.

Why is DJ Stewart unworthy of time in the majors because he happened to have been hitting poorly for a period of time in Norfolk? 

Don’t worry, the questions are rhetorical. I know the answers and I promise you DJ Stewart is going to get his promotion in spite of a two month slump because it’s not his fundamentals that are the problem— 25 year old college players have nothing to gain from extra seasoning. He is what he will be. That will include slumps. He will be a somewhat flawed baseball player with flashes of brilliance. 

He’s not blocking anyone.

[thezeroes]

7 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

I’m curious how you know the difference between a slumping player and a player who lacks the fundamentals to play in the majors. Because I’ve seen Stewart on stretches of great baseball.

Do you think that more time in the minors will help Caleb Joseph? What about Schoop? Schoop was awful for a lot of 2018. What do you think Adam Jones could glean from a AAA demotion? He wasn’t amazing to finish the year.

Why is DJ Stewart unworthy of time in the majors because he happened to have been hitting poorly for a period of time in Norfolk? 

Don’t worry, the questions are rhetorical. I know the answers and I promise you DJ Stewart is going to get his promotion in spite of a two month slump because it’s not his fundamentals that are the problem— 25 year old college players have nothing to gain from extra seasoning. He is what he will be. That will include slumps. He will be a somewhat flawed baseball player with flashes of brilliance. 

He’s not blocking anyone.

D J Stewart was holding his own at Norfolk until he went on the DL with a Hamstring Injury on May 27.  He returned from the DL June 11.  How much that played into his July swoon is not determined by his stat line.

If one researches these Milb stats a bit, they can see that there are factors involved such as a DL Stint and recovery.  I know that this research may not fit a certain narrative but is a factor.

[Frobby]

Jon Shepherd’s BORAS model projects Jones to get 2/$18.7 mm.    I don’t think he’ll get that much, but we’ll see.  https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-centerfield.html?m=1

[atomic]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Jon Shepherd’s BORAS model projects Jones to get 2/$18.7 mm.    I don’t think he’ll get that much, but we’ll see.  https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-centerfield.html?m=1

I figured he would get 3 years 30 million or so.   That system is predicting Gentry gets a 1 year 7.6 million dollar deal.  That won't happen.  

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, atomic said:

I figured he would get 3 years 30 million or so.   That system is predicting Gentry gets a 1 year 7.6 million dollar deal.  That won't happen.  

Even Shepherd conceded that.   

[Ohfan67]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

Jon Shepherd’s BORAS model projects Jones to get 2/$18.7 mm.    I don’t think he’ll get that much, but we’ll see.  https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-centerfield.html?m=1

His use of the term “model validation” was about as far from model validation as you can get. His model looks like a very weakly supported regression. 

[Matt Bennett]

On 10/19/2018 at 11:46 PM, Enjoy Terror said:

I’m curious how you know the difference between a slumping player and a player who lacks the fundamentals to play in the majors. Because I’ve seen Stewart on stretches of great baseball.

Do you think that more time in the minors will help Caleb Joseph? What about Schoop? Schoop was awful for a lot of 2018. What do you think Adam Jones could glean from a AAA demotion? He wasn’t amazing to finish the year.

Why is DJ Stewart unworthy of time in the majors because he happened to have been hitting poorly for a period of time in Norfolk? 

Don’t worry, the questions are rhetorical. I know the answers and I promise you DJ Stewart is going to get his promotion in spite of a two month slump because it’s not his fundamentals that are the problem— 25 year old college players have nothing to gain from extra seasoning. He is what he will be. That will include slumps. He will be a somewhat flawed baseball player with flashes of brilliance. 

He’s not blocking anyone.

I don't know why you would bring up players who have had massive amounts of success in the majors as an argument to justify why DJ Stewart should be in the majors. Jones and Schoop have shown they can hit in the majors over a vast period of time. 

"Why is DJ Stewart unworthy of time in the majors because he happened to have been hitting poorly for a period of time in Norfolk? " Because the majors is significantly tougher than AAA? There's a reason Stewart was brought up on September 11th instead of September 1st. There's a reason the team didn't find time for him to play in the majors before September. It's the same reason they are now regretting rushing Sisco to the majors. 

 

 

[theocean]

14 hours ago, atomic said:

I figured he would get 3 years 30 million or so.   That system is predicting Gentry gets a 1 year 7.6 million dollar deal.  That won't happen.  

It seems like the model is very WAR heavy. Gentry had 1.1 bWAR last year. Jones had .02 bWAR last year. It isn't a perfect stat.

[Redskins Rick]

30 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

I don't know why you would bring up players who have had massive amounts of success in the majors as an argument to justify why DJ Stewart should be in the majors. Jones and Schoop have shown they can hit in the majors over a vast period of time. 

"Why is DJ Stewart unworthy of time in the majors because he happened to have been hitting poorly for a period of time in Norfolk? " Because the majors is significantly tougher than AAA? There's a reason Stewart was brought up on September 11th instead of September 1st. There's a reason the team didn't find time for him to play in the majors before September. It's the same reason they are now regretting rushing Sisco to the majors.

Sisco didnt have the skillset needed to play the catcher role in the big league level, his stick could play, but not the defense skillset.

[wildbillhiccup]

On 10/19/2018 at 10:47 PM, atomic said:

DJ Stewart didn't hit well in Delmarva and they promoted him and he hit well in Frederick and Bowie. He will be 25 by the time spring training roles around. No reason to hold him back. It is sink or swim time. 

I agree. I don't understand the mentality of some to let our prospects get more seasoned in the minors. We're in a unique position where we can afford to see if they can succeed at the MLB level next season. Then we'll have a better sense of the holes we need to fill going into 2020 season. Signing middling players to try and bridge the gap would be a complete waste of money. 

[Matt Bennett]

26 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I agree. I don't understand the mentality of some to let our prospects get more seasoned in the minors. We're in a unique position where we can afford to see if they can succeed at the MLB level next season. Then we'll have a better sense of the holes we need to fill going into 2020 season. Signing middling players to try and bridge the gap would be a complete waste of money. 

Which young players are you in favor of starting the season on the roster on opening day? Hays, Mountcastle, Diaz, Tate, Ortiz, McKenna, Hall...why even have the minors at all? We're in a unique position to see if they can succeed at the MLB level right?

[wildbillhiccup]

5 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

Which young players are you in favor of starting the season on the roster on opening day? Hays, Mountcastle, Diaz, Tate, Ortiz, McKenna, Hall...why even have the minors at all? We're in a unique position to see if they can succeed at the MLB level right?

You know sarcasm is usually more effective when it's a bit more subtle. And criticism is usually more effective when you actually present a valid argument for which you're arguing. The team is already stuck with several veterans on the roster next season (Davis, Trumbo, Villar, etc.). There's absolutely no reason they can't fill the other positions from within. If it doesn't work out and they feel the need to sign a  Danny Valencia type mid-season trust me, he'll still be available. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

I absolutely agree.He's a Torii Hunter type(maybe a bit less) at 33 and has value in the clubhouse and still can swing the bat with an occasional HR.and besides he is currently pretty much better than any outfielder we have currently. It wouldn't surprise me if the Orioles signed him for a 1 year deal with an option and started grooming him as a potential coach..besides Angelos loves him. Im not saying he's coming back to Baltimore...but he wouldn't be a bad 1 year signing if he'd take it...But I don't think he would.

He's a 10/5 player.

He'd be a bad signing.

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, theocean said:

It seems like the model is very WAR heavy. Gentry had 1.1 bWAR last year. Jones had .02 bWAR last year. It isn't a perfect stat.

I think Gentry and Jones contributions to the 2019 Orioles would be very similar overall.  Jones might settle for the 2 year deal as a favor to the O's.  Gentry will be happy to get a 1 year deal.  I'm pretty sure that Gentry would deal with being benched for a prospect a lot better than Jones.  I think Jones has no interest in being a clubhouse leader on a rebuilding club.