How good can the 2019 Orioles be?

[Mayor McCheese]

Pretty sure they finish the month of April with 4 wins, if they are lucky.

They have a series with NYY and BOS.

4 games with Oakland.

3 games with Tampa.

6 games with Minn.

5 games with ChiSox.

That sounds like a 4-21 record right there.  Seasons over.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Mayor McCheese said:

Pretty sure they finish the month of April with 4 wins, if they are lucky.

They have a series with NYY and BOS.

4 games with Oakland.

3 games with Tampa.

6 games with Minn.

5 games with ChiSox.

That sounds like a 4-21 record right there.  Seasons over.

As bad as last year was, they never won fewer than 6 in a month.    I think that’ll hold true this year.

[eddie83]

25 minutes ago, Mayor McCheese said:

Pretty sure they finish the month of April with 4 wins, if they are lucky.

They have a series with NYY and BOS.

4 games with Oakland.

3 games with Tampa.

6 games with Minn.

5 games with ChiSox.

That sounds like a 4-21 record right there.  Seasons over.

I just hope we come home 3-3 or better for the home opener. I want there to be a little bit of positivity out of the gate. Hope there isn’t a million Yankee fans at Opening Day.  

I honestly have a hunch we start out pretty decent this year. New year, new attitude. Better luck. 31 games on schedule thru end of April. I say 13-18.  

[Moose Milligan]

25 minutes ago, Mayor McCheese said:

 

That sounds like a 4-21 record right there.  Seasons over.

Bro, it was over before it began.

[now]

37 minutes ago, Mayor McCheese said:

Pretty sure they finish the month of April with 4 wins, if they are lucky.

They have a series with NYY and BOS.

4 games with Oakland.

3 games with Tampa.

6 games with Minn.

5 games with ChiSox.

That sounds like a 4-21 record right there.  Seasons over.

Replacement level is roughly 4-12, not 4-21

[Ohfan67]

On 2/13/2019 at 10:47 AM, jrobb21613 said:

Let’s let the cards fall where they fall and see what happens. We have new people in place up and down the orginazation hopefully they can have better success developing and getting more out the players in our system and of course future players. I do believe that if you have the right people in charge of the draft and developing them you can build a winning orginazation whether your drafting 1-5 or 15-20 but what do I really know I’m just a fan. I do believe that there is something that could be said for attitude and confidence that can come from winning 70plus games vs only 50 plus games that can help create a winning culture that in return will develop into playing playoff baseball sooner rather than later. 

I hate to continue to be a negative nelly, but the Orioles provide a great example of that NOT happening. Those four seasons were followed by five years of 60 something wins. Being mediocre is just being mediocre. There are no real benefits. If stinking helps save money that can be invested into infrastructure, increases your odds of drafting valuable players, etc., then stinking has real benefits. 

2006	Baltimore Orioles	American League	70	92	.432	27.0	4	2,153,139
2005	Baltimore Orioles	American League	74	88	.457	21.0	4	2,624,804
2004	Baltimore Orioles	American League	78	84	.481	23.0	3	2,743,495
2003	Baltimore Orioles	American League	71	91	.438	30.0	4

[jtschrei]

I'm all about the tank... and so are other teams... and MLB knows it.

And the players' association knows it too. 

It's problematic for the league that tanking is so fruitful. The NFL and NBA have the issue too.

American sports are so weird in that there is no real punishment for being atrocious. In Europe, in soccer, you straight up get demoted to the minor leagues if you are in the bottom 3. It's way more entrepreneurial for owners. Here the fat cats have a monopoly. Not only is there no punishment, you are rewarded for atrociousness. 

I don't think the O's will actively tank, but I think any veteran with value will be traded. 

 

 

[Satyr3206]

I personally don't care how good they are this year or next. The seasons to care about that are 2021/22. That's when we can tell how the rebuild is going.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

I hate to continue to be a negative nelly, but the Orioles provide a great example of that NOT happening. Those four seasons were followed by five years of 60 something wins. Being mediocre is just being mediocre. There are no real benefits. If stinking helps save money that can be invested into infrastructure, increases your odds of drafting valuable players, etc., then stinking has real benefits. 

2006	Baltimore Orioles	American League	70	92	.432	27.0	4	2,153,139
2005	Baltimore Orioles	American League	74	88	.457	21.0	4	2,624,804
2004	Baltimore Orioles	American League	78	84	.481	23.0	3	2,743,495
2003	Baltimore Orioles	American League	71	91	.438	30.0	4

If your only sample is the Orioles from 10-15 years ago, you're going to be correct. However, I'd wager the bolded is demonstrably wrong, and that teams didn't usually go from terrible to great, but often (usually) ended in the mediocre range a year or two before really contending.

How you get there matters. We're not going to build an elite 25 man roster over night. It will be a player at a time, supplemented by new guys from the minors or from outside of the organization. We're likely to finish with a very mediocre record (e.g., 74 wins) at some point in the next 2-3 years, and hopefully on the way to contention.

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

If your only sample is the Orioles from 10-15 years ago, you're going to be correct. However, I'd wager the bolded is demonstrably wrong, and that teams didn't usually go from terrible to great, but often (usually) ended in the mediocre range a year or two before really contending.

How you get there matters. We're not going to build an elite 25 man roster over night. It will be a player at a time, supplemented by new guys from the minors or from outside of the organization. We're likely to finish with a very mediocre record (e.g., 74 wins) at some point in the next 2-3 years, and hopefully on the way to contention.

Sure. Teams almost always  get mediocre while getting better, but being mediocre as your young studs come online is different than being mediocre when your farm system still stinks and your organization is a decade or two behind the competition in the international market, analytics, etc. 

[jrobb21613]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

Sure. Teams almost always  get mediocre while getting better, but being mediocre as your young studs come online is different than being mediocre when your farm system still stinks and your organization is a decade or two behind the competition in the international market, analytics, etc. 

Let’s see what happens it could be possible that with the new regime in place and all the changes being made from top down with a much larger imphasise on player development and analytics. That we could see a big improvement in our current farm system well before we acquire new players.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

7 hours ago, Mayor McCheese said:

Pretty sure they finish the month of April with 4 wins, if they are lucky.

They have a series with NYY and BOS.

4 games with Oakland.

3 games with Tampa.

6 games with Minn.

5 games with ChiSox.

That sounds like a 4-21 record right there.  Seasons over.

I'll make a bold statement:

Atleast 10-15 after the first month.

[now]

48 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

I'll make a bold statement:

Atleast 10-15 after the first month.

Hungry and eager to impress... anything is possible especially out of the gate.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, LookinUp said:

If your only sample is the Orioles from 10-15 years ago, you're going to be correct. However, I'd wager the bolded is demonstrably wrong, and that teams didn't usually go from terrible to great, but often (usually) ended in the mediocre range a year or two before really contending.

People like to talk about the competitiveness cycle, where teams bottom out, build, peak, decline, repeat.  I don't think you'll see that much in real life. 

Look at the Orioles starting in 1980 - dynasty, decline, terrible, suddenly in contention, bad, okay, bought some free agents and two playoffs, quick decline, terrible for 15 years, suddenly in the playoffs, above .500 for five years, pretty quick decline to the worst team in baseball. 

Or the Yanks... excellent team, then declined to a few losing years, then 88+ wins every for a generation. 

Red Sox... mostly contenders since 1980, except that they'll throw in a 71-win season once in a while, often sandwiched between 90+ win seasons.

The Rays were a bad expansion team until they shot up from 66 to 97 wins.  Then were over .500 for five years, under for a while including a 68-win year, then back up.

With a handful of minor exceptions the Jays have won 75-86 games for the last 20 years.

I think predicting any kind of pattern isn't going to go so well.  I think a run of 60, 57, 65, 89 or 63, 72, 60, 83 is just as likely as 55, 65, 72, 81, 90, 93

[foxfield]

11 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

I don't see the Orioles winning 50 games.

Oh, I disagree strongly Roy.  I see the Orioles winning 50 games.  My only question is whether it takes all of spring training, the 2019 season and next year to do it.  But I do see it.  

Not if, but when!