Chris Davis 2019 and beyond

[Bradysburns]

On 11/24/2018 at 5:30 PM, Frobby said:

Chris is 32.   He’s been in his 30’s the whole time he’s been declining from his 2015 season.   And there are several other players with his high K profile who suffered similar declines.    

The weird thing about Chris is, he didn't start out as an all-or-nothing hitter. His minor league stats don't reflect a one-dimensional power guy, a la Adam Dunn, for example. Until a few years ago, Chris' batting average was respectable for a power hitter. 

Also, if you look at a guy like Mark Reynolds... very up-and-down but overall, a pretty nice career he's carving out. We properly jettisoned him years ago. But he has raised his batting average in recent years and his Colorado stint has raised his overall numbers yet again. 

In other words, Chris somehow getting back to .230s BA, with 30 HRs... I think that could still be possible. There would be no point in it, of course... as he'd be doing it for a rebuilding team. But it seems possible, at least worth trying, with enough support. There's not much else to do but release the guy.  

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

The weird thing about Chris is, he didn't start out as an all-or-nothing hitter. His minor league stats don't reflect a one-dimensional power guy, a la Adam Dunn, for example. Until a few years ago, Chris' batting average was respectable for a power hitter. 

Also, if you look at a guy like Mark Reynolds... very up-and-down but overall, a pretty nice career he's carving out. We properly jettisoned him years ago. But he has raised his batting average in recent years and his Colorado stint has raised his overall numbers yet again. 

In other words, Chris somehow getting back to .230s BA, with 30 HRs... I think that could still be possible. There would be no point in it, of course... as he'd be doing it for a rebuilding team. But it seems possible, at least worth trying, with enough support. There's not much else to do but release the guy.  

I think we have to give it a shot for at least a few months of 2019.     I’d be lying if I said I think we’ll turn him around.    

[Moose Milligan]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think we have to give it a shot for at least a few months of 2019.     I’d be lying if I said I think we’ll turn him around.    

I don't. 

I think we can all agree that there's no hope for him.  New management is going to see if they can fix him and that's a valiant effort.  I'm sure they can get up to speed quickly on what we've been watching for the past 2-3 years.  

I don't fault them for trying to fix him but even if he got up to...a .775 OPS, what good does that do?  It's not as if he's all of a sudden tradable, he's been so bad for so long that any team looking at him will wonder if a decent output is a mirage.  

[Ohfan67]

29 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't. 

I think we can all agree that there's no hope for him.  New management is going to see if they can fix him and that's a valiant effort.  I'm sure they can get up to speed quickly on what we've been watching for the past 2-3 years.  

I don't fault them for trying to fix him but even if he got up to...a .775 OPS, what good does that do?  It's not as if he's all of a sudden tradable, he's been so bad for so long that any team looking at him will wonder if a decent output is a mirage.  

I would retch less frequently after his at bats. 

[NCRaven]

Just in case we think that the Orioles were the only team in baseball that signed stupid contracts.  Per MLBTraderumors:

As the Mariners’ “reimagining” of their Major League roster continues, general manager Jerry Dipoto is “actively “making an effort to trade infielder Robinson Cano, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required).

The challenges in moving Cano are obvious. Though the eight-time All-Star remained productive when on the field in 2018, he turned 36 in October, missed 80 games this past season due to a PED suspension and is owed a hefty $120MM over the final five seasons of a 10-year, $240MM contract (signed under former Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik). Cano also has the ability to veto a trade to any team, which only further muddies an already unenviable situation for Dipoto & Co.

[Can_of_corn]

Another example of a team bidding against itself.

The thing is, Cano is still an above average ML player.  So while the contract is a bad one for the Mariners you can't say he's not earned it up to this point.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Just in case we think that the Orioles were the only team in baseball that signed stupid contracts.  Per MLBTraderumors:

As the Mariners’ “reimagining” of their Major League roster continues, general manager Jerry Dipoto is “actively “making an effort to trade infielder Robinson Cano, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required).

The challenges in moving Cano are obvious. Though the eight-time All-Star remained productive when on the field in 2018, he turned 36 in October, missed 80 games this past season due to a PED suspension and is owed a hefty $120MM over the final five seasons of a 10-year, $240MM contract (signed under former Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik). Cano also has the ability to veto a trade to any team, which only further muddies an already unenviable situation for Dipoto & Co.

Cano has been worth 23.6 rWAR so far under his contract.    He’s easily earned his salary so far, and has a good chance of earning his entire contract at market rates (he’d need to get to 30 rWAR to do that).     Meanwhile Chris Davis is at 0.4 rWAR and has basically zero chance of earning his contract (which would require him to be worth about 20 rWAR over his 7 year deal).   So, I don’t consider the two cases to be even remotely comparable.   

I recently updated my list of all contracts worth $100 mm+.    I rank Davis in the “definite disaster” category and Cano in the “trending good” category.    Details here:  

 

[foxfield]

On 11/23/2018 at 3:08 PM, Can_of_corn said:

He has full power but can't make the final call on the contents of his 25 man roster.

That isn't full power.

It just isn't.

So they lied.

This is the type of stuff that led to trading away draft picks to get rid of Webb and Matusz.

 

 

On 11/23/2018 at 3:18 PM, Can_of_corn said:

I disagree.

I think the obviously was there for the sake of the readers who were questioning if Elias had the power to cut Davis.

 

 

On 11/23/2018 at 3:20 PM, Can_of_corn said:

I'm a pretty black and white guy a lot of the time.

Don't make definitive statements if they are not true.

Don't lie to my face.

Watch Trumbo get packaged with the comp B pick.

The sons haven't earned the benefit of the doubt, remember how happy they were with the Gausman trade?

 

On 11/23/2018 at 3:50 PM, Can_of_corn said:

We all know it but that doesn't excuse lying to us about it.

They should be trying to build trust.

As for the 25 man/40 man roster spot, I disagree with you.  Rebuilding teams need to be able to protect their young players and they also need to be able to play at a level that can challenge them.

 

On 11/23/2018 at 4:01 PM, Can_of_corn said:

How can you be in control of the baseball decisions and not be in control of your 25/40 man roster?

You can't.

You can't compare this with other owners.  Other owners don't have to repair their reputation.

 

 

On 11/23/2018 at 4:39 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Not at all.

But the offseason is the time to speculate about the future correct?

I certainly can't talk about how bad the starting pitching was last night.

Also the idea that Davis can increase his WAR by four or so wins at 33 is pretty unrealistic.  That would have been a topic for last season when he was pretty much replacement level.

Never underestimate the power of the dark side!
 

 

Lied, already.  Classic.  My favorite part is because Roch said so.

 

Speculation?  Here is mine.  Davis will hit well enough to be on the team or he will be gone, period.  I am going to go way out on a limb and say that the topic of what to do with Davis if he continues to be worthless came up.  And I'm gonna say that if John Angelos says it's a Elias decision, then it is, under whatever terms they have already agreed to.  And to close my speculation, since I think Davis is done, he will be gone in 2019.  Because you really cannot build something when you throw away a spot everyday and tell your entire organization that it's ok and that he doesn't have to earn it.

Hey I hope I am wrong, at least about Davis earning it.  But for a black and white guy, swallowing the gospel according to Roch rings to me like you are simply looking for a good debate in November.
 

Of course, I am still in the odd position of believing that Brady Anderson moves on quietly this offseason.  So clearly I am off the reservation.

[Can_of_corn]

We'll see how long Davis stays with the team if he continues to perform at a well below replacement level.  If he gets cut in May I was wrong.

[weams]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

We'll see how long Davis stays with the team if he continues to perform at a well below replacement level.  If he gets cut in May I was wrong.

Or July or next September. Whenever Mike decides he want to take that loss. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, weams said:

Or July or next September. Whenever Mike decides he want to take that loss. 

If he's on the roster come June 1st, something is wrong, IMO.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, weams said:

Or July or next September. Whenever Mike decides he want to take that loss. 

Right, because it's reasonable that a GM would want a -3 win guy on the roster into September. 

Hopefully Davis either performs well or gets cut early in the season.

Hopefully the O's actually spend their international slot money next year.

Hopefully the O's don't bundle assets with Trumbo in a salary dump.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

If he's on the roster come June 1st, something is wrong, IMO.

Or by some miracle he's playing at replacement level or better.

[24fps]

22 minutes ago, foxfield said:

 

 

 

 

 

Never underestimate the power of the dark side!
 

 

Lied, already.  Classic.  My favorite part is because Roch said so.

 

Speculation?  Here is mine.  Davis will hit well enough to be on the team or he will be gone, period.  I am going to go way out on a limb and say that the topic of what to do with Davis if he continues to be worthless came up.  And I'm gonna say that if John Angelos says it's a Elias decision, then it is, under whatever terms they have already agreed to.  And to close my speculation, since I think Davis is done, he will be gone in 2019.  Because you really cannot build something when you throw away a spot everyday and tell your entire organization that it's ok and that he doesn't have to earn it.

Hey I hope I am wrong, at least about Davis earning it.  But for a black and white guy, swallowing the gospel according to Roch rings to me like you are simply looking for a good debate in November.
 

Of course, I am still in the odd position of believing that Brady Anderson moves on quietly this offseason.  So clearly I am off the reservation.

Off the reservation but traveling in style.  Really great post.

[weams]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Right, because it's reasonable that a GM would want a -3 win guy on the roster into September. 

Hopefully Davis either performs well or gets cut early in the season.

Hopefully the O's actually spend their international slot money next year.

Hopefully the O's don't bundle assets with Trumbo in a salary dump.

Yeah. We will lots of things to discuss when the time comes.