Will Manny earn his $300 mm contract?

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Do you think he'll never win a gold Glove again just like he won't get a $300M contract?

Manny may not win another GG for a while, playing in the same league with Arenado.    He’s still an outstanding 3B IMO, but he’s no longer head and shoulders above the other top guys.    Chapman in the AL is also really good.  

That said, Manny is likely to be an excellent all-around player over most if not all of the next decade.    

[El Gordo]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Manny may not win another GG for a while, playing in the same league with Arenado.    He’s still an outstanding 3B IMO, but he’s no longer head and shoulders above the other top guys.    Chapman in the AL is also really good.  

That said, Manny is likely to be an excellent all-around player over most if not all of the next decade.    

I think Manny will be as good as Beltre the rest of the way. But no Brooks. Sorry Cal.

[oriole]

I voted no. From a technical standpoint of 8m/WAR I’m sure I’ll be wrong in ten years.  But anyone making that kind of money, even in the context of MLB salaries, has to be a god among men. I appreciate all the great plays from the guy while in Baltimore but the dude has some attitude issues and seems to get caught up in his own ego from time to time. I know it’s in the past but who the hell throws a bat at another player? I know it’s a maturity thing for the most part but no other early-20s players do that. Nor do you see guys open admitting to not hustling and then playing dirty. He’s A-Rod 2.0. Great player, awful personality. I’m sure he’d take that as a compliment while wiping dog crap off his shoe with a hundred dollar bill so I know my thoughts are pointless on the matter.

[LookinUp]

Other than park factors, I think San Diego will be awesome for Manny. Ton of young talent on the come. Quiet enough market to keep him out of the crazy NY/LA spotlight. I personally think that's best for him.

San Diego might be a year away from being perennial playoff contenders. I think he'll be happy and productive. Wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of 7-8 WAR seasons in the next few. If so, that will make it relatively easy for him to "earn" this contract.

[Bubble Buddy]

Like others have said, with him willing to play 3B, I think it's a pretty easy yes. If he was insistent on SS, I think it'd be more 50/50. 

Also, it's just words thus far, but I feel like he has a good attitude going into SD. He wants to win and I think SD being a smaller, more chill market will suit him well. 

[MikeAD]

Too many factors at play but I think he for sure exceeds that value if he stays in San Diego.  If the team fails to contend hes going to opt out or be traded and that changes things.  I think theres a stronger chance he gets traded or opts out than sees the full ten years if only because SD contending depends on enormous step backs by others in a money rich and very strong division.  If SD can't trade for pitching theres a scenario or two  where AZ has rebuilt faster and is contending quicker, even if the Dodgers and Rockies take big steps back.  Also got to assume the Giants wont stink for too much longer, although the path seems much tougher at the moment.  

 

Edit: Also pretty safe to say hes going to be at 3B for the duration of this contract if he stays in SD.  Tatis is a well known highly regarded young player.  If he falters early you could see a Manny to SS move but if he plays well or average, Tatis is the SS for awhile.  If Tatis is lost to Free Agency or trade later Manny will be older and staying put would make more sense.  

[weams]

On 2/24/2019 at 9:30 AM, Can_of_corn said:

How many folks put things in MLB instead of Orioles talk?

Half of us. And not usually me. 

[weams]

Just now, weams said:

Half of us. And not usually me. 

Though I move stuff. 

[NCRaven]

Voted yes.  And, I've never once heard of Manny being a problem in the clubhouse.

[Hallas]

On 2/25/2019 at 4:55 AM, DrungoHazewood said:

About 75-80% of players with 25+ WAR through Manny's age have ended up with 37+ wins from age 26-35.  So on that somewhat conservative basis he has a good shot at earning his deal without considering inflation.  If inflation is 5% per year he only has to produce about 32 wins, so all the better.

My simple contract tool (which assumes he's peaking now and will decline at half a win a year, with 5% inflation) has him worth 10/295.  But at 25/26 there's a good chance he is at the start of a 5-6 year plateau where he won't really decline much, and may have better years.

If I assume that he stays in the five- to six-win range for the five years then declines on an accelerating basis to around zero in year 10 I have him worth 10/371 (again, with inflation).  If you throw in a random year, say 2022, that's zeroed out from injury I get a total value of 10/319.

I'm also not completely convinced of a 5% inflation rate.  It could be less.  It's possible a labor dispute or the cable bubble might temporarily result in deflation of salaries.  That would make earning the deal less likely.

All in all I'll say yes, he'll earn it.  Any contract like this carries significant risk but Manny's is probably one of the least risky megacontracts in baseball history.

Your decline phase calculation is bit more rapid than a typical 36 year-old's decline.  According to fangraphs a 36 year old produces about 40 runs worse than their peak.  Assuming his 2018 season is his peak, that would put his age-36 projection at around 20 runs over replacement, which is good for a little over 2 wins.  A decline to 0 at age 36 seems awfully pessimistic barring catastrophic injury.

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Your decline phase calculation is bit more rapid than a typical 36 year-old's decline.  According to fangraphs a 36 year old produces about 40 runs worse than their peak.  Assuming his 2018 season is his peak, that would put his age-36 projection at around 20 runs over replacement, which is good for a little over 2 wins.  A decline to 0 at age 36 seems awfully pessimistic barring catastrophic injury.

 

Unless he is playing SS at age 36. 

[Tx Oriole]

On 2/24/2019 at 9:05 AM, Frobby said:

Simple yes/no poll.    Use today’s $8 mm/WAR, consider inflation, or ignore WAR entirely and just use your own criteria.   Whatever floats your boat.    

No he will not. 

[Ruzious]

I wish Manny well and think he probably will be worth his contract, but... I find his comments very disappointing.  

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Unless he is playing SS at age 36. 

It's possible, I guess.  I honestly can't think of too many SS that shifted positions strictly because of age slowing them down defensively.  Vizquel and Jeter didn't really slow down.  Jeter was a terrible defensive SS for his entire career, and he wasn't any worse at the end of it than he was at the beginning of it.

[Moose Milligan]

I think yes.  But overall I think Arenado is better and Manny will be in his shadow.