Would you offer Austin Hays the Scott Kingery deal?

[interloper]

15 minutes ago, interloper said:

134 PA vs 250 PA is quite a lot, no? Do I think Adley will reach 12 homers in the next 116 PA? Yes I do. He may hit 15 by then. The average, probably not. 

I'm as skeptical of Adley's eventual ML bat as anyone, but that's too big of a discrepancy in PA to make the point you're making right now.

Also, it bears repeating that Adley has barely played baseball in two full years. So listing their ages of 23 vs 22 and acting like that's something worth mentioning at all is pretty silly. 

[tntoriole]

29 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Even today it's hard to see a .365/.460/.625 line in AA at 22 and not think it's awesome.  It is.  Especially in 2021 when hitting .365 seems like something Ty Cobb used to do eons ago.

But it's a good lesson in not projecting an epic career based on a single minor league season.  Especially in a catcher who might spend half his career recovering from a never-ending series of large and small injuries.

Rutschman should be better, but we'll see... 

That last line was my only point.  I learned my lesson with Matt…Adley is going to have to show me, over the coming years, if he is Johnny Bench or Johnny Flaherty lol. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Aglets said:

How many of Adley's games have you seen?

I have seen enough video (didn’t see video of Wieters) to tell there are some big differences in things I feel are important.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

55 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

That last line was my only point.  I learned my lesson with Matt…Adley is going to have to show me, over the coming years, if he is Johnny Bench or Johnny Flaherty lol. 

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict AR will at least be better than John Flaherty (25th round draft pick). Nice random pull of a long forgotten baseball player by the way. 

But I'll definitely hold off on comparisons to HOF catchers. Wieters was very good for the Orioles, but got a bad wrap from some fans because he wasn't "Mauer with power" as a hitter.  

[Aglets]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Also, it bears repeating that Adley has barely played baseball in two full years. So listing their ages of 23 vs 22 and acting like that's something worth mentioning at all is pretty silly. 

Obviously age is relevant when you talk about a minor league player's performance.   

Obviously it's GREAT to have a catcher at AA with an OPS over 1.000.   I would certainly rather have that than one that is under .700.

You made a lot of assumptions about "what point I was making" and I don't think they were entirely accurate.  I have every hope that Adley will be a perennial All Star catcher that blows past Wieters's career 16 WAR as an Oriole.   

My main point was that paying him 9 figures (at 30M - 35M or more per) seems pretty darn premature at this stage, and that I think our history with Wieters should make us at LEAST cautious enough to want to see him at the MLB level for a BIT before we start having this conversation.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Even today it's hard to see a .365/.460/.625 line in AA at 22 and not think it's awesome.  It is.  Especially in 2021 when hitting .365 seems like something Ty Cobb used to do eons ago.

But it's a good lesson in not projecting an epic career based on a single minor league season.  Especially in a catcher who might spend half his career recovering from a never-ending series of large and small injuries.

Rutschman should be better, but we'll see... 

As relevant to the topic here, I think the issue is a risk analysis.   Obviously, nobody is going to offer Adley a contract today that is equal in value to what he would earn if he just went year by year and achieved the upside we believe he has.    Any contract he’d be offered would be significantly less than that, because it relieves him of the downside risk of either disappointing performance or trajectory-altering injury.   It has to be a deal where the Orioles benefit if he stays healthy and performs as hoped, but they have risk of paying too much if Adley disappoints.    So where is that balance?

To take the low-hanging fruit, I wouldn’t even think twice before offering Adley the Kingery deal, and I’d be astounded if he took that modest of a deal.   As a reminder, the Kingery deal was for 6/$24 mm with options at $13, 14 and 15 mm.    The “disappointing” Wieters made about $23 mm in his pre-FA years, despite having TJ surgery interrupt his Arb 2 season in such a way that he got only a courtesy raise in Arb 3.    The odds that Adley would earn more than that in his pre-FA years are quite high.    And if things went as hoped in his pre-FA years, he’d probably earn something like the $38 mm Posey got in those years, maybe more considering salary inflation in the intervening years.    

So, I think you’d have to go richer than $24 mm in the pre-FA years.   You shouldn’t have to go as high as the $38 mm Posey got.   I’d say $30ish mm is probably about right.    As to the options, I’d say $13/14/15 is a bit light.   There has to be some significant potential reward for the team, though, since they took a pretty big risk on the front end.   Go $14/$16/$18 mm.    

So, 6/$30 mm with options that could take it to 9/$78 mm.   That is pretty fair to both sides, I think.   If Rutschman has a 3 WAR rookie year, you’ll never get him to sign a deal that good, but it’s a reasonable thing for him to do now.   


 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I have seen enough video (didn’t see video of Wieters) to tell there are some big differences in things I feel are important.

I’d be interested in Tony’s evaluation.   I know there were some early concerns about his ability to handle high heat.   Not sure if those concerns have been ameliorated over the last month after a relatively slow first 7-10 games.   

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As relevant to the topic here, I think the issue is a risk analysis.   Obviously, nobody is going to offer Adley a contract today that is equal in value to what he would earn if he just went year by year and achieved the upside we believe he has.    Any contract he’d be offered would be significantly less than that, because it relieves him of the downside risk of either disappointing performance or trajectory-altering injury.   It has to be a deal where the Orioles benefit if he stays healthy and performs as hoped, but they have risk of paying too much if Adley disappoints.    So where is that balance?

To take the low-hanging fruit, I wouldn’t even think twice before offering Adley the Kingery deal, and I’d be astounded if he took that modest of a deal.   As a reminder, the Kingery deal was for 6/$24 mm with options at $13, 14 and 15 mm.    The “disappointing” Wieters made about $23 mm in his pre-FA years, despite having TJ surgery interrupt his Arb 2 season in such a way that he got only a courtesy raise in Arb 3.    The odds that Adley would earn more than that in his pre-FA years are quite high.    And if things went as hoped in his pre-FA years, he’d probably earn something like the $38 mm Posey got in those years, maybe more considering salary inflation in the intervening years.    

So, I think you’d have to go richer than $24 mm in the pre-FA years.   You shouldn’t have to go as high as the $38 mm Posey got.   I’d say $30ish mm is probably about right.    As to the options, I’d say $13/14/15 is a bit light.   There has to be some significant potential reward for the team, though, since they took a pretty big risk on the front end.   Go $14/$16/$18 mm.    

So, 6/$30 mm with options that could take it to 9/$78 mm.   That is pretty fair to both sides, I think.   If Rutschman has a 3 WAR rookie year, you’ll never get him to sign a deal that good, but it’s a reasonable thing for him to do now.   


 

I don't think the O's or Adley will play the game before they know the rules.  The New CBA should change the rules for when Adley can become a FA.

[interloper]

17 hours ago, Aglets said:

Obviously age is relevant when you talk about a minor league player's performance.   

Obviously it's GREAT to have a catcher at AA with an OPS over 1.000.   I would certainly rather have that than one that is under .700.

You made a lot of assumptions about "what point I was making" and I don't think they were entirely accurate.  I have every hope that Adley will be a perennial All Star catcher that blows past Wieters's career 16 WAR as an Oriole.   

My main point was that paying him 9 figures (at 30M - 35M or more per) seems pretty darn premature at this stage, and that I think our history with Wieters should make us at LEAST cautious enough to want to see him at the MLB level for a BIT before we start having this conversation.

Sure, but maybe not when comparing one player who missed most of a year with mono and then all of a year due to a global pandemic. We have no idea what the effect of not playing that long has had, if any, on Adley. So comparing his 23 yr old season to Wieters' 22 yr old season is kind of pointless in this specific case. 

And again, we're talking about a 115 PA difference at the moment. That's huge. 

I agree we should contain hype levels for Adley, though. Catchers gonna catcher most of the time. 

[Can_of_corn]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d be interested in Tony’s evaluation.   I know there were some early concerns about his ability to handle high heat.   Not sure if those concerns have been ameliorated over the last month after a relatively slow first 7-10 games.   

Some early concerns?  We had folks discussing a swing rebuild.

[Aglets]

On 6/9/2021 at 8:32 AM, Aglets said:

Some food for thought while we are pondering giving Adley a blank check before he even sees AAA.

Rutschman (age 23 at AA):   .288/.440/.567/1.008     8 hr, 26 bb, and 26 K's through 134 PA

Some other first round catcher we drafted in 2007 (age 22 at AA):   .365/.460/.625/1.085          12 hr, 38 bb, 29 K's through 250 PA

 

On 6/9/2021 at 3:36 PM, interloper said:

134 PA vs 250 PA is quite a lot, no? Do I think Adley will reach 12 homers in the next 116 PA? Yes I do. He may hit 15 by then. The average, probably not. 

I'm as skeptical of Adley's eventual ML bat as anyone, but that's too big of a discrepancy in PA to make the point you're making right now.

Update on this.   Closing in on 250 PA at AA..... 15 HR looking like a bit of a stretch.  12 is absolutely possible, he has 2-3 games left.

ADLEY - .276/.408/.495/.902 through 239 PA at AA.  11 HR, 40 BB, 36 K's.

 

IMPORTANT CAVEAT:   I do not necessarily believe that if Adley hits worse than Wieters in AA then he is destined to hit worse than Matt also in MLB.  The game has changed some in the last decade plus.   But I do think context is important, I do think we need to manage our expectations.  And I do think we can say now that Adley isn't exactly forcing anyone's hand at this point.  He is playing well overall, and I do hope they bump him up to Norfolk soon.

[jabba72]

Im guessing the Phillies are lamenting this deal right now. .588 OPS in AAA. But I guess being on the hook for $20m for a prospect you were once high on isnt the end of the world. 

[ChosenOne21]

I'd rather give out 7-8 Scott Kingery deals than one Chris Davis deal

But in all seriousness, Adley is the type of prospect you absolutely offer this kind of deal to. If he fails, you're out what, 30 million over six years? That's not going to cripple the franchise and the upside is MASSIVE

[Hallas]

On 6/9/2021 at 2:02 PM, Sports Guy said:

I have seen enough video (didn’t see video of Wieters) to tell there are some big differences in things I feel are important.

Can you elaborate?  For what it's worth, pre-26 Wieters had probably the fastest release on SB attempts that I've ever seen from a catcher.

 

In terms of athleticism, that's a bit of a nebulous term, but Wieters seemed to show better than expected athleticism from his work behind the plate, while regressing a bit with the bat.

[Sports Guy]

43 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Can you elaborate?  For what it's worth, pre-26 Wieters had probably the fastest release on SB attempts that I've ever seen from a catcher.

 

In terms of athleticism, that's a bit of a nebulous term, but Wieters seemed to show better than expected athleticism from his work behind the plate, while regressing a bit with the bat.

Wieters was very robotic and upright in his movements.  Not as much behind the plate but running and things like that.  His swing wasn’t great, he was slow and never appeared to me to be someone who could transition anywhere else on the Diamond and be good.  
 

I felt his athleticism or lack there of would stop him from being the guy people thought he was in the minors.  I was actually very surprised to see him in person and see how underwhelming he was.