Alex Wells 2019

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Wells doing Wells stuff.

7.0 innings, 7 hits, 1 run (earned), 1 walk, 7 strike outs. 

95 pitches, 71 strikes.

[Mendoza Line]

On 7/27/2019 at 5:28 PM, Frobby said:

12:48

12:49

Rick: Why no love for Alex Wells? 1.83 ERA in the Eastern League at age 22 yet doesn’t make the Orioles’ top 35 prospects? What don’t you like besides the 88-91 mph fastball?

12:48

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y…

12:49

Eric A Longenhagen: nobody does it at 88-91 from the jump. Just about all of these guys had big stuff at one point and made relevant adjustments as it dwindled.

12:49

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s hard to get outs sitting 88-91, most of the high school arms at PG National throw that hard.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-chat-7-26-19/

So, I guess it’s all about the fastball.    Hope he proves them wrong.

 

The question is then, has Wells made that adjustment already in the minor leagues to compensate for the subpar velocity? It would be a great story if the guy can compete in the majors at his velocity.

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Wells doing Wells stuff.

7.0 innings, 7 hits, 1 run (earned), 1 walk, 7 strike outs. 

95 pitches, 71 strikes.

He was doing even better through 6 IP.   The run and four of the hits came in the 7th inning.   But in any event, an excellent outing and an excellent month for Wells, who threw 37.2 innings in 6 starts to a 2.39 ERA in July.   I love the fact that he’s been getting deep into games on a regular basis.   

[HelenaEngineer]

9 minutes ago, Mendoza Line said:

The question is then, has Wells made that adjustment already in the minor leagues to compensate for the subpar velocity? It would be a great story if the guy can compete in the majors at his velocity.

Exactly. The notion that hitting 88-91 can be hard if it is from a pitcher who used to throw hard but no longer does but isn't hard unless the pitcher used to throw hard doesn't make logical sense. Sure, experience often leads to learning what to throw and when and how to change speeds to mess up timing, but no one sitting in the batters box cares how hard you threw 5 years ago. If you have a good plan and can execute it, then you can be effective. Many people take years to learn how to do that and use that knowledge to compensate for lost velocity, which occurs around the same time they lose the zip on the fastball. If Wells has learned how to do that sooner rather than later, then he should be able to be competitive.

[orioles22]

I don't remember - did Scotty McGregor throw hard early in his career? What about Jamie Moyer?

[LookinUp]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-velocity-surge-has-plateaued/

The league average fastball last year was 92.8. That's the average. 

With that said, I decided to look at the top pitchers in baseball (by ERA) just to see if any are sprinkled in there with low fastball velocities. Lo and behold, the #1 pitcher on the list, Hyun-Jin Ryu's average fastball is in the 9th percentile. That is low, but his average is 90.6 MPH, which is apparently at the top of Wells' range. Somehow Ryu's exit velocity (96th) and hard hit % (86th) are near the best in the league. His K% this year is 23% and his BB% is just 3%. That ratio is almost 8:1. Wells' minor league career ratio is 5:1. 

I went down the list some more. Jose Berrios is 8th, but his FB is right about league average. 

Kershaw's FB velocity is just over 90, but we all know he has that amazing curve ball. He also sports a 7:1 K/BB ratio.

Grienke is 89.8 at this point. He has an 8:1 K/BB ratio.

I got that data from this site: I'm guessing it's easier to find more data on fangraphs. I think the story is that it can be done, but the guys doing it the best are really excellent pitchers who still likely have higher average velocity than Wells, and they often have really great secondary stuff. 

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+pitching&game_type='R'&season=2019&season_type=ANY&league_code='MLB'&sectionType=sp&statType=pitching&page=1&ts=1564670914126

 

 

 

[MurphDogg]

 

On 7/27/2019 at 5:28 PM, Frobby said:

Rick: Why no love for Alex Wells? 1.83 ERA in the Eastern League at age 22 yet doesn’t make the Orioles’ top 35 prospects? What don’t you like besides the 88-91 mph fastball?

12:48

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y…

12:49

Eric A Longenhagen: nobody does it at 88-91 from the jump. Just about all of these guys had big stuff at one point and made relevant adjustments as it dwindled.

12:49

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s hard to get outs sitting 88-91, most of the high school arms at PG National throw that hard.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-chat-7-26-19/

So, I guess it’s all about the fastball.    Hope he proves them wrong.

Except they have Lowther ranked at #9 with a 45 FV and his fastball sits at 88-90. 

I don't understand how Fangraphs can have them ranked so far apart unless they are leaning heavily on Lowther's status as a second round pick.

[MurphDogg]

Bowie is now in a rain delay and presumably Wells will not be returning when the game restarts.

 

Wells went 4 and a third today throwing 64 pitches, 49(!) for strikes. He allowed 4 hits, no walks and struck out 4, only run allowed was on a solo home run. His ERA now sits at 2.11

 

[Luke-OH]

On 8/1/2019 at 12:21 PM, MurphDogg said:

 

Except they have Lowther ranked at #9 with a 45 FV and his fastball sits at 88-90. 

I don't understand how Fangraphs can have them ranked so far apart unless they are leaning heavily on Lowther's status as a second round pick.

I think Lowther will fall on their rankings. His velocity is down this year, at least 2 ticks. His fastball does play much better on the plate than Wells's FB (although, when Wells is on, the FB never sees much of the plate). 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Bowie is now in a rain delay and presumably Wells will not be returning when the game restarts.

 

Wells went 4 and a third today throwing 64 pitches, 49(!) for strikes. He allowed 4 hits, no walks and struck out 4, only run allowed was on a solo home run. His ERA now sits at 2.11

 

This year, Wells has only failed to go 5 innings in four of his starts.    One of those was today when rain shortened his outing, and another was on May 20 when he got hit by a line drive and was removed after 2 shutout innings.    The other two were in his first and third outings of the year, coming back from an oblique injury.     All told, he’s had an incredibly consistent season so far.     My guess is he gets 5 more starts before the regular season ends.

[survivedc]

Boy am I anxious/excited to see Wells at Norfolk next year. 

[MurphDogg]

Wells bounces back from a poor start (7 runs over 4 and a third), going 6 innings allowing 2 runs (1 earned), 4 hits and 1 walk with 4 strikeouts over 95 pitches.

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Wells bounces back from a poor start (7 runs over 4 and a third), going 6 innings allowing 2 runs (1 earned), 4 hits and 1 walk with 4 strikeouts over 95 pitches.

But loses.    

Wells should start the regular season finale on Monday, except in the unlikely scenario where they’ve clinched a playoff spot, in which case maybe they hold him back for the playoffs.   

[Frobby]

Wells pitched well in the playoffs, allowing 3 runs in 13 innings, but took the 2-1 loss in Game 3 vs. Trenton when a baserunner stole home to score the go-ahead run.   Tough way for Wells to end his season.  

Overall, he has to be pleased with his season.    His final regular season numbers were  137.1 IP, 2.95 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 4.4 K/BB.     He threw 70% strikes on the season.   Add two strong postseason performances to that, and he clearly should be slated for Norfolk next spring.     

[MurphDogg]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Wells pitched well in the playoffs, allowing 3 runs in 13 innings, but took the 2-1 loss in Game 3 vs. Trenton when a baserunner stole home to score the go-ahead run.   Tough way for Wells to end his season.  

Overall, he has to be pleased with his season.    His final regular season numbers were  137.1 IP, 2.95 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 4.4 K/BB.     He threw 70% strikes on the season.   Add two strong postseason performances to that, and he clearly should be slated for Norfolk next spring.     

Don't forget, Wells is on the Arizona Fall League roster, so his year isn't over yet.