If Elias doesn't select Rutschman...what would your reaction be?

[Mayor McCheese]

IMO the Orioles will 99.999999% select Rutschman @ #1.  If they somehow move off him, I'd guess they would go with Vaughn because you know the Orioles... we love discounts!

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Mayor McCheese said:

IMO the Orioles will 99.999999% select Rutschman @ #1.  If they somehow move off him, I'd guess they would go with Vaughn because you know the Orioles... we love discounts!

If they pick Vaughn or anyone else they’ll spend the exact same amount on the draft as if they pick Rutschman.

[weams]

11 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

If they pick Vaughn or anyone else they’ll spend the exact same amount on the draft as if they pick Rutschman.

The Orioles always have spent all the money allocated to them. 

[Greg Pappas]

FWIW:
Witt Jr was born June 14, 2000.
Rutschman was born February 6, 1998.
 

I want Rutschman to be the choice and would be shocked if he isn't. 

[weams]

1 minute ago, Greg Pappas said:

FWIW:
Witt Jr was born June 14, 2000.
Rutschman was born February 6, 1998.
 

I want Rutschman to be the choice and would be shocked if he isn't. 

You are right. They are both old for the draft. 

[ChuckS]

Not taking Rutschman with the first pick would be akin to not taking Bryce Harper or Steven Strasburg the year that they were available for the Nats.  Those were slam dunk first overall picks and so is this.  

I'm expecting he will be an Oriole, but we will all experience some paranoid drama up until the moment they pick him. 

[atomic]

9 hours ago, weams said:

Possibly. 

The minimum was 3.1 million and the Astros offered 5 million.  It is funny how people on here lie about this so much to make Elias seem better.  Why not live on a world of reality.  

[Philip]

10 hours ago, Cy Bundy said:

So I think I can say I follow the amateur draft prospects more than anyone here and as I’ve said many times in many threads I think Rutschman is clearly the best prospect. He’s a 100% lock to stick behind the plate and barring severe physical decline provide value there defensively. And at the plate you can compare his performance to a successful Oregon State draftee like Michael Conforto and Rutschman totally blows him out of the water. The tools are there too, bat speed, natural loft, 6+ raw power from both sides of the plate along with an advanced approach.

That said, there are some scenarios where I’d be ok with them going in a different direction. If they think Hunter Bishop’s arm can be improved, then he’s a 7 power, 6 run guy you can play in centerfield. Witt Jr could be a star. C.J. Abrams has the prototypical body and tools of an elite major league player even if the results aren’t there yet. Josh Jung is a guy who sneakily be a 6 hit, 6 power 3B . And then there is Vaughn who is the best present day bat in the class but if a 5’11” R/R 1B.

So if the O’s can get one of those guys at a considerable savings to slot (2M underslot isn’t unheard of for 1-1) and get a mid first round talent tough sign to 42, then that works for me. There are also some 1st round talents who’ve been injured, Spencer Jones, Kenyon Yovan, Graeme Stinson who you could use overslot on in the 2nd, 3rd, or comp picks. Also there are some Soph eligible guys who might need overslot money to sign who be good value at one of those picks mentioned above like Drey Jameson, Brady McConnell, and Greg Jones.

So there are some ways to go ina different direction that’d make some sense, but those scenarios have plenty of ifs involved and could go very wrong. So I’d prefer they just take the best player.

-Lucas

Thank you very much!

[atomic]

6 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Not taking Rutschman with the first pick would be akin to not taking Bryce Harper or Steven Strasburg the year that they were available for the Nats.  Those were slam dunk first overall picks and so is this.  

I'm expecting he will be an Oriole, but we will all experience some paranoid drama up until the moment they pick him. 

Yeah they could pick someone else to save money.  Claim they are going to use the money to sign overslot players and then pocket the money. It would certainly fit with the sons moves so far.

[weams]

6 minutes ago, atomic said:

The minimum was 3.1 million and the Astros offered 5 million.  It is funny how people on here lie about this so much to make Elias seem better.  Why not live on a world of reality.  

Did they offer five after the physical? If so, I apologize. I had no idea that Elias had screwed up that badly. 

[Philip]

I’m stumped by the folks advocating Vaughn. Who wants a 5’11 first baseman? Especially when we already have plenty.

[atomic]

6 minutes ago, weams said:

Did they offer five after the physical? If so, I apologize. I had no idea that Elias had screwed up that badly. 

Their original offer was 6.5 million which they offered before physical.  Then they offered 3.1 million .  They raised offers but Aikrn didnt respond to any of them. They offered 5 million at the deadline.  Aiken did not respond to their offer.  Also there is reason teams dont take high school pitchers number 1 overall as there is too much chance for failure.

The reason the Astros wanted to draft  Aiken is because they could sign him well under slot and they had deals with other players to pay them well over slot value. Those deals fell through when they were unable to sign Aiken.

[atomic]

7 minutes ago, Philip said:

I’m stumped by the folks advocating Vaughn. Who wants a 5’11 first baseman? Especially when we already have 

Yeah I cant see picking a  first baseman #1 overall. 

[weams]

43 minutes ago, atomic said:

Their original offer was 6.5 million which they offered before physical.  Then they offered 3.1 million .  They raised offers but Aikrn didnt respond to any of them. They offered 5 million at the deadline.  Aiken did not respond to their offer.  Also there is reason teams dont take high school pitchers number 1 overall as there is too much chance for failure.

The reason the Astros wanted to draft  Aiken is because they could sign him well under slot and they had deals with other players to pay them well over slot value. Those deals fell through when they were unable to sign Aiken.

Here is what I find to be factual.  There was no 5 at the deadline.

Quote

Aiken’s MRI evidently looked like the reddest of flags. They reduced their offer to Aiken to around $3.1 million – and it seems possible that they hoped that he wouldn’t accept it.

That $3.1 million figure is revealing: It represents 40 percent of the assigned slot value for this year’s one-one, which happens to be exactly the percentage that the Collective Bargaining Agreement requires a team to offer in order to receive a compensatory pick next year — and an exceedingly valuable one at that, No. 2 overall — if they failed to sign Aiken. Houston's calculus seemed simple. The team evidently decided that it would rather take its chances with next year’s No. 2 instead of with Brady Aiken, a player whom the organization had loved only weeks before but who had since taken on a different risk profile.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/07/23/houston-astros-number-one-pick-brady-aiken-inside-story

If this is true, no apology from you is necessary.  And I believe it to be true. 

 

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, weams said:

You are right. They are both old for the draft. 

Old for the draft? 21 is old? Now I’m 70 and I may have lost my ability to add. But I don’t think I did.